This seems to be confirming my worst fears (also hurrah journalist who appears to have woken up):
inews.co.uk/news/politics/warrington-covid-19-cases-rise-tests-nhs-unavailable-local-lockdown-648437
Warrington is the latest area where Covid-19 cases are rising fast, but tests are often nowhere to be found
Warrington had one of the lowest infection rates in the country in the summer, but cases have quadrupled in the last week and it now has the sixth highest in England
“The case rate has quadrupled in a week, I am not exaggerating,” Director of Public Health at Warrington Council, Thara Raj, said. “And if we are set to quadruple again in a week’s time we will have overtaken Bolton and that is really worrying.”
She said it has been difficult to pinpoint the exact cause of the sudden spike in cases and puts it down to a combination factors, including people returning to work and increased socialising. There have also been several incidents involving specific venues where there have been outbreaks.
One popular pub became a source of several cases of the virus and was only discovered when one asymptomatic person who attended happened to get a test ahead of a routine procedure. When additional testing resources were brought in to the area at the time to counter the small outbreak, the Government website was still directing people out of Warrington to get tests.
“When we got wind of this outbreak I called an incident meeting … and we agreed to divert the mobile testing unit to Warrington in order to help because we thought people who had visited may be getting symptom,” Ms Raj said.
“And again the national algorithm sent them off to everywhere but Warrington. So we diverted a precious national resource to Warrington to help with a particular outbreak situation and yet people were still struggling to get a test locally.”
The huge spike in cases may still not be telling the full story as local leaders are hearing repeatedly from people who are unable to get hold of a test at all.
The data for community testing (Pillar 2) showed there were about 200 carried out a day in Warrington in July, which increased to 400 in August. So far during September, the average number of pillar 2 tests conducted on a daily basis has increased to almost 700 tests. There is not data available to show how many people applied for a test but were unsuccessful.
“I am being told personally by people that they can’t get hold of tests or appointments and it’s pre-booked appointments only – we have not been allowed to promote any walk-ins,” she said. “It is worrisome and I’m guessing that there are more outbreaks out there that are not being reported because people don’t know that they have got symptoms.”
This is really troubling. Leicester's problem was missed for a long time because the local council weren't getting the data on the pillar 2 tests.
In this case, it looks like a lack of availability of pillar 2 testing may be hiding something. The demand for tests was going up significantly BEFORE the schools went back.
This story seems to suggest that the shared mobile testing centre wasn't working too as the government system wasn't directing locals to the centre - even when it was moved back to Warrington (from Halton) after an outbreak was picked up by pure chance (which also suggests widespread undetected community spread).
The whole things just seems to confirm my suspicion that Warrington has had a woeful level of testing provision for a town of its size - and close proximity to Greater Manchester which was already a hot spot.