Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

Cases were up 50% in one day in the NW and made up 30% of all cases. 1300 cases and not just the usual suspects now either

@Ecosse it may be true that everyone could theoretically get tested somewhere - although I'm not so sure.

In practise, people are not bothering to travel hundreds of miles / ten miles by public transport (which they should do anyway for a test), for something which they "suspect" is just a cold anyway.

I have seen a recent article discussing an alarming increase in hospitalisations and also ICU admissions in the UK,but I can't find it now I want it!

If there is a change in the pattern, it would of course start in a small way.

There have indeed been improvements in treatment with the use of steroids for example, and a recognition that ventilation is a strategy that can have a poor outcome, but I wouldn't want to take my chances with this illness.

[quote Ecosse]@herecomesthsun

To be frank, the case numbers are not the key indicators. What we need to be looking at is hospitalisations (especially ICU) and deaths.

There are some really positive signs from France and Germany where the rise in cases has not led to huge numbers of deaths- 34 and 49 are the most recent figures from France.[/quote]
....
Germany and Italy have been stable for the last few weeks, at a much lower level of cases than the UK and an R at or v slightly below 1.0

Germany has been around 10 / 100,000
(and has consistently had far fewer deaths than other densely populated European countries, a peak of 340 vs UK 1,445)

Italy around 15 / 100,000

UK is about 27 / 100,000 and rising

@Ecosse

You really think most people are prepared to travel hours for a Covid test?...If I was well enough to travel 100+ miles I wouldn’t, and I’d be keen to know. And if I wasn’t well enough, well i wouldn’t be able to get tested! Enough people won’t even wear a mask in a shop ffs!

There’s being positive and there’s living in a fantasy world!

Patients in ICU on mechanical ventilation doubled in 10 days....

Source please?

@hopefulhalf

Actually I think the rate of rise has slowed. 30th of August was 1,700 a week later it was 2,900 we were told it was doubling every 7-8 at the begining of September. It hasn't doubled in the last 7 days. I hooe that cases can be stabilised with the rule of 6 and potentially no inside dining/ drinking so we can keep the schools open

It depends on whether there is a problem with people getting tests / delays in getting results and this is hiding a sustained rise.

We have by far the highest testing in Europe so i very much doubt that lots of positive cases are being missed.

I thought 80% are asymptomatic. How would you collect their data if they dont even think they need testing?

"There’s being positive and there’s living in a fantasy world!"

Exactly

and on a stats thread I rarely try to be either positive or negative
Just accurate

Agree BCF with regards the U.K. you can't ignore or deny the data that shows the NW has issues still. They don't seem to be improving with targeted support or improve but get worse again when restrictions are lifted.

Data shows there are also increases across rest of U.K. and small areas of hotspots. These are sometimes tracked to workplace outbreaks.

It's people ignoring data that could lead us into trouble.

[quote Ecosse]@midgebabe

Everyone can get tested at some point. It may be a case of them having to travel further than ideal or wait a while though.

We have by far the highest testing in Europe so i very much doubt that lots of positive cases are being missed.[/quote]
....
The test system is a shambles
Tests may be sent out, but some are lost, some are sent back too late, some are damaged etc

The Times reports there were only 60,000 tests per day - which is far from the highest in Europe - and some tests had to be sent to labs in Italy & Germany for processing

So looks like problems both with the online booking system and a lab backlog

btw, I wonder if the high cases today could be a higher number of the backlog from earlier being processed ?

WIth such a mess and such dubious test figures, I concentrate more on trends of about 2 weeks

The last surveillance report I saw had London and the SE with the highest rises after the NW
So not just a problem in one region

@dawnlassie The corona dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk shows patients on ventilation in London as 13 on 7/9, 26 today. For England, those numbers are 62 and 107. Total inpatients in England is today 894, up from 539 a week ago.

Source please? It's on the govt covid site, 52 on mechanical ventilation on the 6th and 107 today.

Sorry to butt in hope it helps.

PM: Children should stay at school until there is a positive test in their bubble

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-children-should-stay-at-school-until-there-is-a-positive-test-in-their-bubble-pm-says-12073421

Groups of pupils should only be sent home if there has been a positive test, rather than someone just developing symptoms, the prime minister has said.

@BigChocFrenzy

PM: Children should stay at school until there is a positive test in their bubble

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-children-should-stay-at-school-until-there-is-a-positive-test-in-their-bubble-pm-says-12073421

Groups of pupils should only be sent home if there has been a positive test, rather than someone just developing symptoms, the prime minister has said.

I listened to this on LBC commission

A journalist / person asking got it wrong and said everyone had to go home whilst they waited.

Johnson corrected it. So it’s the same as before. Child with symptoms goes home. Rest wait until test is positive.

Liaison committee rather

Personally, I look more at hospitalisations & ICU, rather than specifically ventilation, since policy on that has changed

There will be a lot of people getting O2 in hospital rather than the more dramatic treatment they would have got in March-April

However, we need the full picture, including the age distribution of cases
Is it spreading to the elderly ?

As Spiegelhalter has written: if 5,000 30-yr-olds catch Covid there would only be a handful of deaths
Quite different situation if the number of elderly infected - in rl, not just found by tests - gets to 1,000 daily

This is from the Guardian yesterday

"Covid hospital admissions and ventilation cases rising in England, figures show

The figure on the summary page of the UK government’s coronavirus dashboard for hospital admissions has not been updated since 2 September (because Scotland’s data only comes out weekly) but within the healthcare page there are statistics showing hospital admissions, hospital numbers and mechanical ventilation patients for England are all going up. Here are the key points.

The daily total for Covid patients being admitted to hospital in England has now passed 150. On 13 September, the most recent day for which a figure is available, it was 153. The previous day it was 143. Only a week ago the numbers were in double figures. The total has not been as high as 150 since early July. This is from John Roberts, a contributor to the work of the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group, earlier today."

Twitter link here

I posted PM's statement because there seems some confusion on this
However, afaik, this just reiterates the current policy for schools

@Dawnlassie

The government coronavirus dashboard!

France has another 46 deaths today, and despite the prime minster telling us the cases were going back down we’ve got 9784 cases.

However, for those saying the French deaths etc aren’t that worry, they might want to have a look at Spain. The French case numbers rose after the Spanish ones did. Spain posted 239 deaths today and 156 yesterday. Even if that’s allowing for a catch up in the numbers it means their deaths are higher than France. I guess we’ll have to see what happens to the French numbers over the next week or so.

Also I’ve just seen that since March there have been 42047 positive cases in French care homes, and 10528 deaths, so approximately 25% death rate. Does that seem right for care homes? I didn’t think the outcomes were quite that bad...

If people can not get tests within a few days or symptoms appearing the rate of false negative rises. So a delay in obtaining tests means more people around shedding the virus than should be.

Ecosse you are living in fantasy land, this is a data thread.

@PatriciaHolm

Thank you