Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

@Witchend
Very interesting question. If we took 700 from todays figures and put them on the 14th, then they'd all roughly be around the same BUT looking at cases via specimen date confuses me as only showing 28 for yesterday and I can't view more than the last 4 days worth of figures.

@SaltySosha

Only 34 and 49 deaths respectively in France the past two days despite the huge rise in cases over the last 8 weeks, so not as doom and gloom as it might appear(and as it seems some would like it to).

My area is 14.6/100k what level of concern is this currently?

We have followed previous pattern of rise of case but past week we've dipped again.

It is worrying that cases are so high despite the issues. That said we are in GM where testing demand is through the roof and media is awash with stories of NO TESTS yet after some persistence three friends of mine were able to get a test v locally yesterday for their kids.
I hear there may be a plan to prioritise schools for tests (teachers first I hope) after acute care and social care. I really hope this happens.

I have saved a couple of cvs files with historic data for England only. Out of 3,396 cases reported today:

• 28 were tested on Sep 15,
• 945 - Sep 14
• 1,130 - Sep 13
• 634 - Sep 12
• 450 - Sep 11
• 123 - Sep 10

the rest were tested earlier during the month

In other words, a lot of numbers reported today represent transmissions that occurred during late Aug - early September. We will only be able to see the impact of the most recent measures (Rule of 6) over next 2 weeks. The numbers are likely to go up before (and if) they go down.

Today's figures very high at 3900 but I wonder if yesterday's 3100 is why? So we are remaining on an average at 3600. Still bad but hopefully would need further data next few days to see if another dramatic rise or a catch up.

Thanks winter that's much more detailed information to the question I was typing at the time! X

@wintertravel1980

I have saved a couple of cvs files with historic data for England only. Out of 3,396 cases reported today:

• 28 were tested on Sep 15,
• 945 - Sep 14
• 1,130 - Sep 13
• 634 - Sep 12
• 450 - Sep 11
• 123 - Sep 10

the rest were tested earlier during the month

In other words, a lot of numbers reported today represent transmissions that occurred during late Aug - early September. We will only be able to see the impact of the most recent measures (Rule of 6) over next 2 weeks. The numbers are likely to go up before (and if) they go down.

I don't mean to be a kill joy but

• we have an R number of 1.7

• we have reopened schools, which was thought by various experts to increase R by 1.0

• this was with no social distancing and no extra provision for hygiene/safety or distancing on school transport

• pubs etc are still open

• people have been encouraged to go back to work.

• testing is failing so badly that it seems people are ?deliberately being directed hundreds of miles out of their way, to avoid giving them access to the tests that they need

• figures are still rising very rapidly but we are crippled in understanding the full extent and pattern of the spread which hampers effective isolation

In this scenario. do really think that there is a hope that figures will fall in the weeks ahead?

@herecomesthsun

To be frank, the case numbers are not the key indicators. What we need to be looking at is hospitalisations (especially ICU) and deaths.

There are some really positive signs from France and Germany where the rise in cases has not led to huge numbers of deaths- 34 and 49 are the most recent figures from France.

Thanks @Ecosse - that is reassuring.

@itsgettingweird

My area is 14.6/100k what level of concern is this currently?

We have followed previous pattern of rise of case but past week we've dipped again.

Our medium size Midlands town was 44.1 per 100k on today's Covid Messenger and the govt stats say we had 22 more positives registered in the last 24hrs. A week ago we were at 8 per 100k and that was higher than it had been.

We're on holiday in North Wales, where it feels much safer at the mo!

The deaths are likely to be low at first because a) the numbers prevalent are still low (currently about 2-6% of the likely maximum in the Spring, and these were even lower 4-6 weeks ago).

b) the shielded people were told to continue shielding till 1st August and have only fairly recently emerged blinking into the sunlight, as it were.

Now that schools are back, with lots of shielded families having a member/s pressurised to return to work to study in them, with no social distancing, poor safety measures etc.

So covid will spread in the schools, the shielded will start getting infected and then they will start dying.

And really, no one seems to give a fucking shit.

I dont know what they are counting as mechanical ventilation beds now and whether that is a good proxy for severe cases. I suspect we are counting different things now as it was realised that mechanical ventilation was not always the answer. Deaths rise after weeks, not immediately.

Things will get worse for several weeks, whether it improves after that depends on all of us.

It is the end of summer, immune systems are about as strong as they get. Treatments are better and more are being trialled all the time. People know what to do to reduce the risk of infection and online shopping is more readily available. We have passed peak holiday season, so the main influx of returning holidaymakers bringing infections back. It's not all bad.

@SaltySosha

Thanks *@Ecosse* - that is reassuring.

Sadly not.

And the other thing is that there has been a very significant recent rise in hospitalisations [[https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-latest-wake-up-call-covid-19-hospital-admissions-england-642484?fbclid=IwAR0hlQmBm0lgkapdFLPKhswLTAZv0O844DpfZ6SZrkHBxsilENaqmuM9DM4 see here]

According to this, new daily patients have increased by more than 70% in the north west and London and 50% in the Midlands in a week, while bed occupancy has more than doubled in some areas.

@herecomesthsun

Cases have been rising since July 6th and there has been no significant rise in deaths or indeed, hospitalisations.

sorry inews.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-latest-wake-up-call-covid-19-hospital-admissions-england-642484?fbclid=IwAR0hlQmBm0lgkapdFLPKhswLTAZv0O844DpfZ6SZrkHBxsilENaqmuM9DM4

@herecomesthsun

The numbers are still tiny- 11 admissions in the whole of London per day is nothing.

There are always going to be local increase in admissions and indeed, local issues with capacity, but these should be dealt with on a local basis.

@herecomesthsun that article does show an increase but I think it's misleading. What do you think? . They quote both 71% increase in admissions in london and 23%. I think the first number is total admissions so may include broken legs and the second is the covid number

@herecomesthsun observationally I think that social norms play a huge part. The town to the right of me is relaxed, shops are busy , pubs are busy people are mixing and cases are rising. The town to the left of me has people wearing masks more than is required I.e outside and department stores monitoring the doors to keep numbers low. I don't know cases will be lower but I imagine they will be. If as many people as possible lead on considerate (not over anxious, but considerate) behaviour I think it will have an impact

Does anyone know when- realistically- we would expect the six person rule to stabilise or bring them down?

London was hit hard and early and the elderly there are probably either dead or in hiding.

We have been saying for weeks that the rise was largely in the young and therefore not a great concern. Now we are hearing from the hospitals that it has spread beyond the young, as was bound to happen eventually.

You can take optimism too far when the data is showing that most of the north needs to start taking this far more seriously.

We don't know if the 6 person rule is sufficient to stabilise or reduce numbers
We don't know if adherence would be enough for its full effect to be felt

But in essence, if it takes 5 to 10 days for someone to show symptoms and another couple of days to be tested and included in the number

So at least 2 weeks

Actually I think the rate of rise has slowed.
30th of August was 1,700 a week later it was 2,900 we were told it was doubling every 7-8 at the begining of September. It hasn't doubled in the last 7 days. I hooe that cases can be stabilised with the rule of 6 and potentially no inside dining/ drinking so we can keep the schools open

I hope you are right, but I worry if people can't get tested that the numbers will be inaccurate

@midgebabe

Everyone can get tested at some point. It may be a case of them having to travel further than ideal or wait a while though.

We have by far the highest testing in Europe so i very much doubt that lots of positive cases are being missed.