Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

Hospital admissions by age (England only) from 01 August:
mobile.twitter.com/danielhowdon/status/1306168599149785089

@CoffeeandCroissant good chart bit 18-64 is far to wide an age category

Young people will assume its not them (because historically it's not been but given the positive tests recently it could be increasing) and old people likely to assume it is....

have the case numbers for today been released yet?

3105 positives today

3991 and 20 deaths

oh, big difference there in figures

Promising news on another monoclonal antibody treatment: www.statnews.com/2020/09/16/lilly-covid-19-antibody-helps-patients-rid-their-systems-of-virus-sooner/

Patients in ICU on mechanical ventilation doubled in 10 days.... 😩 (England)

Got mine from the dashboard a minute ago, will have another look

Ignore mine, that’s still yesterday’s numbers, it’s doing it’s don’t refresh until 4:27 message

In hospital transmission probably came from patients more than staff. Good infection control if you are not allowed to test patients unless they have been in contact with someone from abroad (the government instruction to the NHS) and dont have single bed wards to isolate is a pipe dream. Having a shortage of PPE doesnt help but you cant put that on patients.

The system is not perfect, toolkits to identify patients at risk are not perfect.

Steroids work for a lot of adults. "Corticosteroids were associated with lower mortality in critically ill patients who were and were not receiving invasive mechanical ventilation at randomization".
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2770279

@PrayingandHoping
Yes, I agree it's too wide. Will tweet him and ask if it can be broken down (although maybe not possible if that's all the data provides?)

high number of cases today! nearly 4k

What were the cases last Wednesday please

@CoffeeandCroissant yes I would imagine it's the data he's been given....

A quite from todays RKI-report in the paragraph detailing local outbreaks:

"A returnee is the starting point for a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases in the LK Garmisch-Partenkirchen. Despite symptoms and an ordered quarantine, she visited several locations [bars etc.]"

The number on ventilators has only increased from a very low base @PrayingandHoping.

@Jenasaurus

What were the cases last Wednesday please

It was 2,659 last Wednesday

Goodness, almost 4k cases today is getting quite scary again, especially with all the issues surrounding testing & delayed results.

@Shitfuckoh

Goodness, almost 4k cases today is getting quite scary again, especially with all the issues surrounding testing & delayed results.

The question is, is 4k despite the difficulty getting tests or is it because of the delay in getting results. So the last couple of days have been low, should a good number of the results been for earlier days.

Running through a few of the footfall list (using the link Redtoothbrush posted as I think its lower level and it doesnt involve downloads) I see a mixture of dreadful (Warrington and Burnley) and not unusual (Southend) in the higher group while Leceister, Birmingham and Manchester were in the lowest group at end August. Comparing Bristol and Portsmouth with Southend and Oxford (two in top 10 and two the bottom) doesnt suggest that high footfall always means a high positive test rate.

Further analysis required, this is just a quick look.

@Ecosse that really is not a justification.... it's shows what is happening is having the ripple effect that we all don't want to happen. You don't want to sit there with your fingers in your ears saying it's all ok until the point we are in crisis. Panic.... no. It accept it's happening, make people realise so they act more responsibly and abide by the gov guidelines at the least.

Ignoring what is going on would be irresponsible

Can we compare today's cases with France and Spain at all? How long ago were they are 4000 cases and what is happening there now?

And also the question is... if everyone trying to get a test in the last few days had been tested, how high would the number of positives been?

@littleowl1

Glad you find the cases per 100k useful in the emails. I’m actually looking at adding watchlist status for each council also - hopefully next week. I read a good summary from PHE last week explaining the criteria for going on watchlist. I will try and dig it out. But in summary, it’s based on a variety of factors including the cases per 100k. I will have a rummage around later for the doc and post it here when I find it.

For anyone who hasn’t already done so, you are most welcome to sign up for daily emails notifying you of the number of cases in your local council at www.covidmessenger.com

Also wanted to thank you for the ungraded messages. But also the one explaining it would change before it came out.

It's a fab service.