Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

The schools must stay open full-time to keep the economy moving.

The thing most likely to achieve this would be SD in schools - my DD1s school did this in summer term (for all years) and could do so again with extra money. All they need are extra TAs. It worked well in summer and no-one got sick - not one child over 4 weeks (vs 7 in her class alone within one week now).

The problem with the testing is not the testing per se it's opening schools with no SD during a pandemic against all scientific advice.

This was always going to happen.

And schools will be closed to some pupils again, and again, and again. And kids will be forced to stay off sick. So they won't be fully open as it is anyway.

I read that schools are to inform local health authorities to verify isolation / school closures. So I hunted and found this government link, which connects to local council sites for listing school closures: www.gov.uk/check-school-closure.
E.g. www.eastsussex.gov.uk/educationandlearning/schools/schoolclosures.
So far so good, nice.
Tried looking for an area with known school groups in isolation to see what's there and got this:
www.bolton.gov.uk/school-information/school-closures
Then I tried Wandsworth; if anyone can find any info I'll be impressed because I can't:
www.wandsworth.gov.uk/.

The local councils will have the data from local health teams, but clearly they aren't expecting to publish information about isolation, only full closures. It's up to central government to gather and release the info, but also to make it clear what should be made available to the general public. Presumably Robert Jenrick is the minister in charge?

There should be OFFICIAL information on school closures not a something from a campaign group with a particular agenda.

Why this information isn't being asked for by the press surprises me.

It would reveal a lot of the scale of the problem and is important information in terms of knowing educational inequality ahead of exams next year... (which is precisely why there isn't any official data on this).

Hence me pointing out the absence of data, which is a form of data in itself which questions should be asked about.

We have school data from Scotland. Classes of 15 v 30 even. Where are the trend reports? All I’ve seen is a BBC long list of cases.

And I'll point out straight away that BRTUS has no schools listed as closed in Warrington.

Warrington Borough Council also have no schools listed on their website (I checked that prior to asking the question about it).

There is no information in the local press about local school closures.

Yet I know of school closures in the area (more than just rumours I might add).

This should be publicly accessible information which the press should be all over.

The DfE is publishing "school attendance figures" today I think.

JOURNALISTS.
BIG HINT HERE.
FOI TIME.

(sigh)

@EducatingArti

The DfE is publishing "school attendance figures" today I think.

Which show fuck all about council level / local problems which is what is needed to help concerntrate testing to places which are facing the biggest problems.

@MarshaBradyo

We have school data from Scotland. Classes of 15 v 30 even. Where are the trend reports? All I’ve seen is a BBC long list of cases.

I'd like to see that, please could you post a link to it? Thanks!

Include sure

Here is the BBC list here

First part of post was referring to what we have but we’re not looking at. Four weeks in can we see evidence of spread in schools? Or is it community cases coming in. What’s the trend and is it different between state and private (15 v 30). DfE may be posting info soon but what about longer data from Scotland

Thank you. What a shame they stopped updating it on 4th September!

@RedToothBrush

There should be OFFICIAL information on school closures not a something from a campaign group with a particular agenda.

Why this information isn't being asked for by the press surprises me.

It would reveal a lot of the scale of the problem and is important information in terms of knowing educational inequality ahead of exams next year... (which is precisely why there isn't any official data on this).

Hence me pointing out the absence of data, which is a form of data in itself which questions should be asked about.

... Exactly I'm exasperated - but not surprised - at this glaring omission among the regular official reports

I would assume / hope the Dept of Ed have this information collated frequently

• but an alarming possibility is that they haven't got round to an efficient reporting / data system that provides the govt with up to date info.

Seriously BBC.

Midlands Live. When i search for Warrington for local news.

Are you taking the fucking piss.

I don't believe the 'worried well' line. No evidence to back it up, and at the moment you'd have to be willing to sit on a computer for hours and hours and hours constantly refreshing to still fail to get a test.

Red do you mean entire schools closed?

@Piggywaspushed

I think it may not be quite solid enough for the opening thing but it's good info!

Better then some MNers who say 'well my child's school is fine' !

Ah, fairy snuff 😁 As you say - any info is better than nothing. Which appears to be what the Government publish at the mo. 🤔🤨🙄

Marsha I mean both full and part closures.

There is at LEAST one which is fully closed in Warrington. Its on their website. I hear rumours of a second too.

There are various other schools in Warrington which have part closures because I know people directly affected.

Can't get any official information about it anywhere.

The BBC are not reporting anywhere on their website how Warrington are advising residents not to socialise in private settings. (Just checking updates and local news about this now).

I just can't get any information at all about what the bloody hell is going on.

Its like an information black hole.

@IncludeWomenInTheSequel

Thank you. What a shame they stopped updating it on 4th September!

Just before it might begin to show if cases were increasing in schoosl.

I don't think we're going to really be able to see the effects on schools.
Partially it depends on the school as how easily they close.
We've got bubbles of year groups-300 students. They've said they won't close the bubble, but will ask any student who has been in close contact for more than 15 minutes with a positive case to isolate. They haven't said at what point the bubble is closed-and on the basis most children use buses to get to school (freely mixing years) plus with siblings, I don't think an year can be treated separately.
But that means that the school could have a number of cases but won't be closed.

On the basis that the majority of school aged children, what I've read, tend to be asymptomatic or low symptoms, then it's going to take a big outbreak in school to be able to see if it is transmitting child to child.
It will need at least two children, who have no other way of getting it other than through each other, to be symptomatic. I can see already the discussions on how it must have gone child to teacher to child, or both caught it from parents.

What would be interesting (but won't get) is to take a school who has had a few positive cases, perhaps not many, 2-3 apparently independent. And test the whole school. Then do the same with a significant number in the local community. Compare the incidence in the school to incidence in the local community.

We need facts at the moment to stop it. Not hiding behind what they would like to be truth.
And it may be important in the future. If this is going to be around for the foreseeable, which seems to be the case, we need to know for the future outbreaks whether a case should shut a school, or if they are safe to continue. etc.

If it doesn't really transmit round schools, then schools are probably the safest places for our children to be in-certainly better than round the shops etc.
If it does transmit round schools, then they will be little epicentres for outbreaks and needs to be taken far more seriously.

@RedToothBrush

JOURNALISTS. BIG HINT HERE. FOI TIME.

(sigh)

Since the demise of the BoJo show 🤡 I don't really think the press give a shit. They don't seem to get access to him anymore. I wonder why?

Yesterday there was all this fuss about how no one could get tests in the '10 worst affected areas' and there was a list of the ten. Obviously a different criteria to the highest number /rate of positive cases in the past seven days - which Warrington was 6th yesterday.

I am starting to get really concerned about just how much its falling through the cracks. Its not Greater Manchester and its not Merseyside which both have official concerns.

WHY?

The data is screaming there is an issue.

@RedToothBrush

Seriously BBC.

Midlands Live. When i search for Warrington for local news.

Are you taking the fucking piss.

Cheshire is split into N Wales, Merseyside, Manchester, Stoke, Derbyshire etc. There is no such thing as "local" news for Cheshire on the BBC, and there never has been.🤷🏻‍♀️ Cheshire resident, born n bred

Our school has sent an email saying 'a number of local schools have positive tests for coronavirus' and pleading for parents not to send sick kids into school.

Why on earth wouldn't coronavirus transmit in schools? What's the virology behind that? Even the PHE report from June / July SOCIALLY DISTANCED opening showed transmission between all groups.

Most studies are in schools with social distancing in place.

AFAIK there are NO STUDIES of school with no social distancing, except the Israel outbreaks. www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/world/middleeast/coronavirus-israel-schools-reopen.html

"The lesson, experts say, is that even communities that have gotten the spread of the virus under control need to take strict precautions when reopening schools. Smaller classes, mask wearing, keeping desks six feet apart and providing adequate ventilation, they say, are likely to be crucial until a vaccine is available."

We have not learned that lesson in the UK.

And they're FORCING ECV parents to send kids in, not to mention at risk teachers.

Israel did not report high transmission between close contacts in the school outbreak.

We need more data no doubt.

@BigChocFrenzy it might be worth some questions to MPs for PMs questions. It was through questions at the Education Select Committee in NI that we got the data for NI. If the Department of Education can do it, surely the Department for Education can too

ONS data is already in the links - it is, however, educational settings not schools alone. However ONS may include some comment, we'll have to see when the data appears.

Campaigning group or not the schools site are only included verified information - the case that turned out not to be covid might be removed if they were told that? Warrington not in the news so not verified and included. So I've bookmarked their site, as anyone who wants information will do. We do analysis here too so incomplete data is discussed (test figures now being the prime example). Schools - and sewage data if it ever appears - can be the canaries when testing data is incomplete.

Before people get too panicky - lets not forget that there are a few treatments now, that immune systems are far stronger now than in February and that other new treatments are being tried.

Education is the way governments control the population and provide childcare for the working population. We should let parents who can keep their children home.