Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

Before people get too panicky - lets not forget that there are a few treatments now, that immune systems are far stronger now than in February and that other new treatments are being tried.

Its not just about health care though. Its about educational inequality and lack of access to education.

Education is the way governments control the population and provide childcare for the working population. We should let parents who can keep their children home.

This is a political point of view based on covid-19 alone. There are other factors to consider about wellbeing and health.

Hence my point that this information should be being shared so that a decision making process from all the data available can be made and so that resources on testing can be supplied to places where it is needed most.

@BigChocFrenzy - re testing capacity I know that Robert Peston ( admittedly a journalist do not verified source!) posted yesterday that 100 000 tests are going to care homes every day ( 2/5 of the testing capacity he claimed - not sure if that is correct might actually be a higher % of testing capacity for active infection).

I’m not in any way saying that is wrong but does go to your point re testing capacity.

It was however entirely predictable that when schools opened there would be a massive demand for testing. I saw an interview yesterday with the head of IV testing where she basically said we weren’t anticipating this surge until October that’s when the extra capacity is being built for. Her answer was coronavirus has yet again taken us by surprise. I appreciate governments have to plan realistically etc but this does again appear to be a misjudgement.

@RedToothBrush - you don’t need a journalist to do a FOIA request, anyone can do one.

I hear everything you are saying RTB : BRTUS are a starting point but rely on reports, so I guess Warrington people aren't on their site. To be fair to them they refused one of my reports of a bubble closure because I had no evidence : must say though that this is because local press is not reporting it and the school has no information on its website.

I , like you, have suspicions about why there is no proper data.

All the media was interested in was getting schools back and demonising unions. Now they are back, they have lost interest in any consequences.

I believe I read yesterday that Imperial is excited to have schools back because they want to study transmission in children (no mention of adults once more!)

I am glad they are excited. It went down like a bucket of cold sick with BRTUS, as you can imagine.

Results in 'about six months'.

It's a start, I guess!

What they will do with their findings, other than have findings who knows. Life may be very different by then.

The trouble with science is timescales.

Anecdata : in my large, semi rural school attendance on first few days was normal (about 96%). Is now at 89%. Not an area of concern. Quite a lot off awaiting tests.

Most ECV are voting with their feet.

Looking around mn, on friends' fb posts and news reports there's a big issue with actually booking a test. Many describe empty test sites.

I wonder if that's due to the back log?

The PH woman in Gateshead on radio 4 yesterday described a large older lab they have that could increase capacity considerably for the NE. They have the infrastructure there as they've used it to service things like hpv tests.

But they need the funds to provide the correct set up for the tests.

Why hasn't this been done?

She also described a mess up where a mobile testing unit was booked for Saturday but didn't turn up till Sunday.

And she pointed out that, obviously, contact tracing cannot happen without positive tests and so people may be spreading it.

BRTUS don't have several of the schools who've had cases listed there thatI know of locally.

[quote BighouseLittlemouse]@BigChocFrenzy - re testing capacity I know that Robert Peston ( admittedly a journalist do not verified source!) posted yesterday that 100 000 tests are going to care homes every day ( 2/5 of the testing capacity he claimed - not sure if that is correct might actually be a higher % of testing capacity for active infection).

I’m not in any way saying that is wrong but does go to your point re testing capacity.

It was however entirely predictable that when schools opened there would be a massive demand for testing. I saw an interview yesterday with the head of IV testing where she basically said we weren’t anticipating this surge until October that’s when the extra capacity is being built for. Her answer was coronavirus has yet again taken us by surprise. I appreciate governments have to plan realistically etc but this does again appear to be a misjudgement.[/quote]
100,000 tests a day to care homes is probably about right.

There are (or were!) about 400,000 care home residents in the UK, now being tested monthly.

I’d estimate 400,000 to 600,000 staff in care homes (I work in care home sector and it’s usually a bit more staff numbers than the beds in the home, loads of part time staff). Staff being tested weekly (or supposed to be).

Unfortunately it’s sometimes taking more than a week to get care home tests back, and there are cases of tests being void because they weren’t processed in time.

Most ECV are voting with their feet.

Piggy is this staff or families or both?

@RedToothBrush

Marsha I mean both full and part closures.

There is at LEAST one which is fully closed in Warrington. Its on their website. I hear rumours of a second too.

There are various other schools in Warrington which have part closures because I know people directly affected.

Can't get any official information about it anywhere.

The BBC are not reporting anywhere on their website how Warrington are advising residents not to socialise in private settings. (Just checking updates and local news about this now).

I just can't get any information at all about what the bloody hell is going on.

Its like an information black hole.

Closing a school is a big deal. It must be coming from local PHE? (Does that exist)

Schools aren’t meant to make the decision but be instructed so information must be held outside school. Although it does need to be collated nationally still.

I shared this yesterday but going to again today as think it will give lots of useful data about schools and transmission, no doubt will take time but looks very interesting

www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2020/september/commins-study.html

Stumbled across this in American Academy of Peads document:

Change in Child COVID-19 Cases, 8/27/20 – 9/10/20
72,993 new child cases reported from 8/27-9/10 (476,439 to 549,432), a 15% increase in child cases over 2 weeks
• Children made up between 4%-15% of total state tests, and between 3.3%-16.6% of children tested were tested positive

I assume this is what Imperial will be looking at. Are these percentages high - they seem high to me.

For anyone interested in the Warrington specific issues, I've started a separate thread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4024132-Warrington-Unofficial-Lockdown-Request

If there is anything that seems to have relevance to wider stats and data, I'll put here again, but it seems wise to have thread about the particular issues too.

@cathyandclare

Sorry that message sent early!

@cathyandclare I know you asked for number of cases per 100K of population to be added to the daily Covid Messenger emails. I had a load of dev work to do first which with DD back at school.

So, cases per 100K of population will be in tomorrow! Hooray!

And I'm hoping to get the government's watchlist status for each council and regional hospital admissions in next week!

--
Get coronavirus case numbers in your local council area straight to your inbox every day. Sign up at www.covidmessenger.com

So the Scottish cases were low yesterday due to the backlog. Does that mean today they are high due to it being some of yesterday’s and it’s not as bad as it looks as a trend?

Someone mentioned we haven't seen the nandos chart in months. I've just stumbled upon this.

That's fabulous @littleowl1, thanks for the continuing info

New way of counting people in hospital in scotland:

^The first minister explains that, under the measure used up until now, lots of people are classified as being Covid patients, even if they have recovered and are being treated for something else.

This led to the reporting of a higher number of cases than was probably justified.

From today, the Scottish government will stop counting patients who no longer have Covid.

Only patients who first test positive during their current stay in hospital, or in the two weeks before their admission, will be counted from now on.

In addition, they will no longer be classified as Covid patients from a statistical perspective after 28 days in hospital or 28 days after their positive test, whichever is later.

This new measurement will be an improvement on the old one, stresses the first minister.^

Absolutely huge news from Scotland that there are now only 48 people in the whole country being treated for COVID in hospital (with 6 in ICU). This is despite cases rising for the least 8 weeks.

Hopefully this trend (one that has also been observed in Germany) continues and we can start to look at easing restrictions currently in place.

Following the Nando's chart posted by OldBagFace it looks like almost everywhere is at 4 and should be heading back into lockdown.

No wonder it's not been shown for a while.

That chart isn’t very nuanced. It looks pretty old in its blunt approach.

I agree - the Nando's chart doesn't seem really useful now. For example, we've had around 4 or 5 cases a day in Fife, which has more than 375,000 residents. We are absolutely nowhere near Stage 4, but we'd have to live as if we are (and we are a little bit anyway, with the two households rule). This can only contribute to the general feeling of 'why bother following the rules, they're not really for me'.

I don't feel very reassured by this:

It will take a "matter of weeks" to resolve the problems around coronavirus testing, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said.

Coronavirus: Testing issues 'will be solved in a matter of weeks', says Hancock www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54163683

Hmmm.... not sure how Michal Rosen, or anyone else who had a long hospital stay (is Kate Garraway's OH still in?) would view being 'not counted'?

Is this just a pure political move? Or is there something I am missing?