Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

I would like to see data from the government about all the asymptotic people being tested. It is all very well to blame the lack of testing capacity on this, but where is the evidence? When I had my test no one checked me clinically to confirm my symptoms. I know people will be being tested without symptoms, for sure, but the government shouldn’t use this as an excuse without data to back it up.

Is there any where which is actively recording the number of school closures going on, with data by council?

Cos there should be.

You can get information about this if you are in Greater Manchester from the Manchester Evening News. But if you live outside an area which a good local newspaper, I'm struggling to find similar information.

@Bb14

I would like to see data from the government about all the asymptotic people being tested. It is all very well to blame the lack of testing capacity on this, but where is the evidence? When I had my test no one checked me clinically to confirm my symptoms. I know people will be being tested without symptoms, for sure, but the government shouldn’t use this as an excuse without data to back it up.

If they are actually asking what symptoms u have and recording it they asymptomatic people would be denied a test as they aren't entitled to one....

So they are either not asking and recording or people are lying..... (my guess is the former, that the page comes up telling u to only get a test if u have one of 3 symptoms but people can just ignore it and click through)

60 day deaths are in the surveillance data file, figure 34. They aren't that much higher right now: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/916998/Weekly_COVID19_report_data_w37.xlsx.

Red , there is BRTUS . They are a campaign group but they do ask for actual evidence before they update their map.

Not official and I am not sure when they take 'resolved' schools off , but it's an eye opener!

www.boycottunsafeschools.co.uk/reported-covid-19-cases/

@IceCreamAndCandyfloss

Any how are parents means to work with part time schooling? It’s all very well for middle class professionals who can work from home- not so much for others

695,000 job losses since March with many more to come. The schools must stay open full-time to keep the economy moving.

And how the teachers are supposed to teach a class where 7 kids are out at a time, then come back at different times, then another 7 kids are off and they've all missed different bits at different times. It's going to be way worse than remote or blended, or any other option which would be less disruptive.

Oh God, yes JKR, thanks for understanding. It is a blimmin nightmare and a massive workload increaser.

They don't ask which symptom you have just if you have any of the three.

Exactly so the new government narrative of blaming the public for getting tested when they shouldn’t is not actually evidence based.

@Bb14

Exactly so the new government narrative of blaming the public for getting tested when they shouldn’t is not actually evidence based.

Well it's definitely happening as people are openly posting about trying to get a test even though they don't qualify got one... however the government can't possibly know to what scale.

[quote Piggywaspushed]Red , there is BRTUS . They are a campaign group but they do ask for actual evidence before they update their map.

Not official and I am not sure when they take 'resolved' schools off , but it's an eye opener!

www.boycottunsafeschools.co.uk/reported-covid-19-cases/[/quote]
BCF this might be a worth adding to the opening message?

There are nearly 12 million school students; consider how many have some sort of cough, cold, stomach bug etc at any one time
Then add on ½ million teachers

Consider the number of care workers and frontline HCPs who are supposed to be tested regularly - hundreds of thousands at least

Then those among the 28 million people in paid jobs who have symptoms

Even if the worried well and those wanting to go on holiday etc stopped asksing for tests, there won't be enough tests for all the above this winter

The government needs to get real and at least raise the threshhold for getting a test to match up with test capacity

The honest test capacity, not the theoretical on a perfect day / fantasy capacity

Otherwise this test chaos will worsen and even fewer of those who need test results will get them in time

I think it may not be quite solid enough for the opening thing but it's good info!

Better then some MNers who say 'well my child's school is fine' !

"BCF this might be a worth adding to the opening message?"

PUssyCatInBoots No, these are stats and data threads

That might be a link to remember if anyone restarts the "Worried about Corona" threads

I know you are absolutely right, it’s just frustrating that MPs are unwilling to publicly accept anecdotes (TV interviews this morning) about a lack of testing, yet are happy to blame the lack of testing on the public- without knowing how many asymptotic people are actually being tested. Rant over!

@Piggywaspushed

I think it may not be quite solid enough for the opening thing but it's good info!

Better then some MNers who say 'well my child's school is fine' !

Well mine is

There were a few schools impacted in my hometown mid August.

They appear on BRTUS. They were isolated cases and no further spread that has been identified yet.

The infections could not have been caught in the school environment because of when they were identified.

I agree it's definitely happening. A big issue is nurseries and schools demanding that parents test for something that's clearly not covid, they need to be formally prevented from doing that unless the child has official symptoms. The advice also needs to be changed to something lighter to stop pointless testing of:

1. coughs after a phlegmy cold
2. tiny fever spike for an hour after the flu vaccine
3. tests when already verified as having tonsillitis etc, unless admitted to hospital or other unusual / family symptoms.

BRTUS still has a school near me listed that was one case later confirmed as not covid. It's really not a reliable source, sorry.

The Worried About Coronavirus thread resuscitated a couple of days ago, we'll see how it goes. Just the old format.

I agree the BRTUS map is not proper data although may be quite reliable. (Not if they never remove schools from it though)

Yes I think the most worrying thing about the testing crisis is that the furore over it is actually a distraction, in one very important sense.

It could be that the main reason demand for tests has increased so much is that infections have hugely increased, and do so more with each day that passes.

The problem with the June plan was it wasn’t about money but staff we cannot double the workforce overnight even if we could find the space. So social distanced teaching can only involve teaching a small proportion of kids full time like we did in June or providing a small amount of state education to all children (for social distancing in many school sites it would be around one or two days for many kids). I don’t buy this “kids can teach themselves the rest” if a nine year old could cover half the curriculum independently then it calls into question the need for state education at all and let’s face it globally it has been pretty accepted that you countries should work towards providing education and no UN report ever said “x country is fine the kids teach themselves very well so no need for the state”.

Ultimately to me I will take some persuading that part time socially distanced schooling is better than the current approach From the perspective of providing education. Two days school a week means under the current system he would need to miss 60 percent of school through isolation before the education offer became equal to that from socially distanced schooling..I may be niave (and talk to me next September!) but it seems likely that even with three of four periods of isolating he will get more than 40 percent of his education under the current system.

Community spread is obviously another point but from an educational perspective this is unlikely to be more disruptive than any part time socially distanced approach for many kids giving we have the infrastructure to offer very little schooling under this approach (as we discovered in June)

The school data is the best there is until ONS data comes out, they give it by time period so you can see if it changes. I'd like to see it in the links.

The Isle of Anglesey has had several school closures - possibly asymptomatic child cases not tested after their factory outbreak or returning holidaymakers.

Asymptomatic children were not tested often enough when there were outbreaks and have been a reservoir of infection prolonging outbreaks. Now we are probably suffering a combination of that and returning holidaymakers who seem to have high levels of infection. Maybe they all picked it up on holiday but I'd like to see cabin staff being tested.

I do not think school data from a campaign group should be included on the opening thread.

@alreadytaken

The school data is the best there is until ONS data comes out, they give it by time period so you can see if it changes. I'd like to see it in the links.

The Isle of Anglesey has had several school closures - possibly asymptomatic child cases not tested after their factory outbreak or returning holidaymakers.

Asymptomatic children were not tested often enough when there were outbreaks and have been a reservoir of infection prolonging outbreaks. Now we are probably suffering a combination of that and returning holidaymakers who seem to have high levels of infection. Maybe they all picked it up on holiday but I'd like to see cabin staff being tested.

... I'd definitely add any specific ONS link for schools if there is one

• can you post it, please, if so

@Timeforanotherusername

I do not think school data from a campaign group should be included on the opening thread.

... Don't worry, the OP will only have data & analysis links, no campaigns

I'm not happy about reliability of data in BRTUS
I can't deliberately post inaccurate info in the OP of a data thread