Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

Thanks Coffee

I’m not sure where to find past hospital figures but just googled and found a random number

‘Data released this evening states there were 4,689 covid-19 patients in hospital in London on 7 April.’

That’s just London though. It’d be interesting to find a comparative date for that number.

Perhaps given where we are with tests and death numbers hospitalisation is the most useful for comparison with first wave dates.

(My brain is fried today I can only eek this out just, I might be wrong).

There were fairly clear messages about supply chain to the labs being an issue. Having a look, several countries have had a dip recently in test results, annoyingly many don't release their test volumes. I wondered if this is a revival of the PPE and test issues earlier this year, with difficulties sourcing certain ingredients.
This article is looking at how to scale up the USA, but has interesting global figures looking at where the pinch points are:
www.mckinsey.com/industries/pharmaceuticals-and-medical-products/our-insights/covid-19-overcoming-supply-shortages-for-diagnostic-testing#.

Hmm... I am not sure the Scottish (or UK wide?) definition of "people tested" makes sense. What about someone who got tested 5 months ago, got a negative result and is now displaying new symptoms and being tested again? Surely, it is a new case? There should be some sort of cut off between tests (similarly to the 28 days used for death reporting).

If we follow the current approach, we may eventually end up with a situation when we will report 200,000 tests a day with zero "new people" tested.

I’ve been lurking on these threads for a while. @RedToothBrush mentioned Warrington. As I live in Warrington I’ve been following the numbers here closely. Not much was being said locally, but Warrington Borough Council have now announced that we should avoid visiting other households. The number of COVID patients in Warrington Hospital has risen from 3 to 11 this week, which is concerning. When I talk to a lot of my friends they seem totally unaware that there’s a problem in Warrington. The comments on the local social media are also very dismissive so I don’t hold out much hope for people following the new advice.

www.warrington-worldwide.co.uk/2020/09/14/warrington-residents-urged-not-to-visit-other-households-to-avoid-local-lockdown/

Well the situation is looking pretty dire in Marseille now. 31 out of 35 resus beds are filled, and they only have 26 covid beds left (out of 155). Prevalence is 312 per 100,000 with almost 11% positivity on testing.

They announced they were bringing in tougher measures, one of which is limiting large-scale gatherings to 1000 people, seated with 1m between them. Which seems like a total non-measure when one of France's biggest cities has 4 resus beds left

A source from NHS Test and Trace told Political Editor Robert Peston: "Demand for testing has gone through the roof. It’s almost like the loo roll phenomenon early on the year.

"We are doing more testing per head of the population than other European countries but at current demand even once we have doubled that testing capacity (which we will do by the end of October) we will still have the problem you describe."

www.itv.com/news/2020-09-14/coronavirus-case-numbers-rise-by-2621-as-testing-issues-plague-uk

We are still going to have this problem at the end of October...

What is happening in Marseille only demonstrates that another lockdown is just not affordable.

There will be no money to pay for the resistance beds we do have if the economy is shut down again!

*resus

www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/
This is a really useful website. Sorry if its been mentioned before, I had a look but couldnt see it.

@conkersarebonkers
"The number of people newly tested refers to the number of individuals in Scotland who have been tested for the first time for COVID-19 on the previous day. Note that each person is only counted once regardless of repeat tests."

Hang on, that doesn't make sense. Most / many NHS and care home staff have been tested multiple times, as have people with cancer etc, and of course those who've had symptoms more than once. Just because a supermarket worker had a test 3 weeks ago and one today doesn't mean it's not a net new test. The idea of removing double-tests on people was so that confirmation tests don't look like more people have been tested than have been on any given few days.
Is there any single piece of data where one of our dear 4 nations hasn't invented some new nonsensical ways of tracking it?

Sorry, cross-post with @wintertravel1980.

Also in strong agreement with @FingonTheValiant; "limiting" an event to 1000 people at those rates is crazy.

[quote Dinnerfor1]I’ve been lurking on these threads for a while. @RedToothBrush mentioned Warrington. As I live in Warrington I’ve been following the numbers here closely. Not much was being said locally, but Warrington Borough Council have now announced that we should avoid visiting other households. The number of COVID patients in Warrington Hospital has risen from 3 to 11 this week, which is concerning. When I talk to a lot of my friends they seem totally unaware that there’s a problem in Warrington. The comments on the local social media are also very dismissive so I don’t hold out much hope for people following the new advice.

www.warrington-worldwide.co.uk/2020/09/14/warrington-residents-urged-not-to-visit-other-households-to-avoid-local-lockdown/[/quote]
Its one councillor who is asking people nicely. Its not even an official council statement strongly advising people not to meet at all in private gardens or houses.

It's currently the 6th Worst Place in England with a current rate of 98.1 per 100,000. On 2nd September it was 9 per 100,000. It was 2.9 the previous week.

Its gone through the roof. And FAST. I am not surprised people haven't realised there is a problem.

There isn't a formal review into whether there will be a local lockdown until 5th October.

Yeah. Right.

Totally agree @MRex

And if the daily number of people tested doesn't include people who have been tested before, then how can the daily positive percentage be accurate?

@RedToothBrush We had a bit of a sudden rise in cases early in August but then seemed to go down quickly. What concerns me is that from looking at the Arcgis map, cases seem to spread right across Warrington rather than an outbreak in one area.

What a godawful mess UK testing is in atm
This is why I am actually NOT in favour of more testing atm
The system is obviously totally overloaded and has now broken down

It would be better to do fewer tests, get results back in time, not lose any of them and then have reliable data

Re possible shortages of test kits / ingredients in countries:
I haven't heard of that happening here

Dinner, I think when I checked on Thursday there were 4 cases in Warrington South. The rest were all in North Warrington, which with where the town centre is, the demographics and commuter patterns is what you would expect to see happening, at least at first, if there was an outbreak. (It has one of the highest levels of inequality in the country - which more or less runs along the barrier of the Manchester Ship Canal).

There has now been a large increase in Warrington South - the more affluent part of the borough over the weekend. Thats a bad sign imo. The town parts of the town, don't generally tend to mix socially as a rule. There's a big 'them and us' mentality. If its 'jumped' across the canal, then there's an issue with community transmission.

What is appalling is there is still no permenant testing sight in the town. It has one mobile centre which is shared with Halton every couple of weeks (because its related to Warrington and Halton NHS Trust). Last I saw about this, the council are trying to make one permanent. For a town of its size and location its absurd.

I have connects with the town still and I'm concerned.

@BigChocFrenzy

What a godawful mess UK testing is in atm This is why I am actually NOT in favour of more testing atm The system is obviously totally overloaded and has now broken down

It would be better to do fewer tests, get results back in time, not lose any of them and then have reliable data

Re possible shortages of test kits / ingredients in countries:
I haven't heard of that happening here

That would mean the need to shut schools...

It won't happen.

Things are now out of control though, and it will be very difficult to get on top of things. Particularly in areas which are currently seeing a big rise.

I don't think people have realised this yet.

The problem is there are too many people (usually parents or their children) who now have to get tests for mild coughs. I am sure my DD will start coughing as soon as the temperature drops and I am dreading it.

If I understand correctly, the initial COVID cough is quite distinct so if it is the only symptom, it may make sense to ask people to have a video call with a GP and discuss next steps. I really do not think any country can test every single child with every new cough.

@RedToothBrush
There’s definitely a problem with a “them and us” mentality. I’m in Warrington South and when I mention the issue to people they say, “Oh well we’re not really Warrington”. I have to show them the Arcgis map to convince them that we need to be concerned as well.

The testing situation is actually currently affecting me. My daughter has had a really bad cough since Friday but I can’t book a test at all. Which means I’m missing work and her sister is missing school. Annoyingly there’s a test site at the airport which is only 15 minutes from me, but they’re turning people away without an appointment.

In Warrington South a lot of people work in Trafford and Manchester which could contribute to the issue. I don’t understand how it’s got so out of hand in Warrington with so little attention from anywhere. 101 cases per 100,000 last time I checked.

They need to get on top of this.

All that talk of great catch up programmes and the importance of children being in school is bullshit if kids are spending two weeks at home every time they get a virus which may very well present with similar symptoms as Covid in children.

And then the class going home again for two weeks because there's been a case or two.

This will be much worse in areas where there's known learning gaps AND there's currently high cases load, where there's generally a higher level of deprivation.

So we have areas of the country where children will be doubly impacted in their learning due to the balls up with accessing tests.

kids are spending two weeks at home every time they get a virus which may very well present with similar symptoms as Covid in children because of lack of tests.*

I totally agree winter - there’s no chance of us having capacity to test every child with a cough or a temperature.

How well are we tracking the reasons people are requesting tests? Can we say, for example, how many children with a protective cough associated with a cold are also testing positive for Covid? Likewise if a Dr gives a diagnosis of tonsillitis or ear infection do they also need a Covid test along with the associated isolation for the family?

[quote Dinnerfor1]@RedToothBrush
There’s definitely a problem with a “them and us” mentality. I’m in Warrington South and when I mention the issue to people they say, “Oh well we’re not really Warrington”. I have to show them the Arcgis map to convince them that we need to be concerned as well.

The testing situation is actually currently affecting me. My daughter has had a really bad cough since Friday but I can’t book a test at all. Which means I’m missing work and her sister is missing school. Annoyingly there’s a test site at the airport which is only 15 minutes from me, but they’re turning people away without an appointment.

In Warrington South a lot of people work in Trafford and Manchester which could contribute to the issue. I don’t understand how it’s got so out of hand in Warrington with so little attention from anywhere. 101 cases per 100,000 last time I checked.[/quote]
I agree. There are also lots of kids in Warrington South who go to the schools in Grammar Schools in Trafford. The links with the South of the town and Manchester / Altrincham / Stockport are really strong - its a commuter hot spot.

I'm shocked at how off the radar its been. Its like no one is paying any attention.

I hear that there is a big problem with a kids off with colds in the area. There's schools affected in both the North and South already and it can only get worse by the sound of it.

Testing in the UK seems to be mad - anyone can get a test for any reason (availability dependent obviously). Surely that's abused by people testing in order to travel, testing in order to visit others, testing as a "reassurance", testing for the anxious well etc etc.

In Ireland only a gp can order a test. If you want one, you have to contact your gp and they refer you on if they deem it necessary. It's not foolproof, but surely at least there is some record of who is ordering tests and why.