Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

Can we say, for example, how many children with a protective cough associated with a cold are also testing positive for Covid? Likewise if a Dr gives a diagnosis of tonsillitis or ear infection do they also need a Covid test along with the associated isolation for the family?

I'm going to have exactly this problem. Ds gets multiple ear infections over winter-talking about 8-10 often. He will get a temperature with them. Currently I will have to get a test for him, knowing that it is an ear infection before he and his sister will be allowed back to school and I can get back to work-or we have to isolate for 14 days. I'm preparing for him to miss almost all school between November and March judging by normal years.

@OrangeGeckoWithBlackSpots

Testing in the UK seems to be mad - anyone can get a test for any reason (availability dependent obviously). Surely that's abused by people testing in order to travel, testing in order to visit others, testing as a "reassurance", testing for the anxious well etc etc.

In Ireland only a gp can order a test. If you want one, you have to contact your gp and they refer you on if they deem it necessary. It's not foolproof, but surely at least there is some record of who is ordering tests and why.

... The UK needs that kind of discipline - but do UK GPs have the capacity for the volume of calls ? I doubt it, unless they drop other work

GPs are snowed under. Obviously GM is a high rate area.

www.google.com/amp/s/www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/we-working-flat-out-greater-18931998.amp

We are using symptoms as a screening device. What is needed is some kind of calculation, not just 50% of all cases of Covid have coughs, but what percentage of all coughs are Covid. Then we need to see which combination of symptoms acts as the best screening indicator. We need to tweak the combinations to affect the specificity and sensitivity of the symptoms we are using, along with the frequency of the symptoms we are looking for, so it actually matches our testing capacity and is most effective in picking up the maximum number of positives. It doesn't seem like a tricky model to create. I realise that getting figures on how many people actually have symptoms is trickier, but this is why we have the Zoe app. However, it seems like they are coming up with lots of useful data, and no-one in power is actually acting on it.

I wish I could be assured that things as simple as this were already being done, but after approximately six months of being sneered at for thinking I know better than the people running the country, I am now completely convinced I know better than the people running the country. I don't think this is arrogance, more just a modicum of self respect.

@Piggywaspushed

Yes, but globally that's not practicable....

That was in a very dense homogeneous population. In reality with heterogeneous groups with SD probably much lower. However even if as low as 40% still represents huge fatalities if left to get to that point.

If the vaccine situation is the same mess as everything else, then will need to focus on specific groups first. There may be limited supplies or not work for certain groups/higher risk for certain groups so this is when herd immunity will start to become significant.

Just to highlight why the situation in Warrington is really concerning.

The ward of Appleton Thorn, Stretton & Walton contains approximately 2,409 households with a population of about 6,418 (2011 census figures). Its a mix of a larger village and small rural settlements. I believe the ward is officially classified as 'rural village'.

Naturally its one of the lowest density populations in the borough. The average household income is £54,300 (2018 figure) so very much towards the top end. Its not a 'trendy young' area by any means. Its not exactly a hive of night life. Its incredibly white and middle class, with professionals white collar workers (who are more likely to be able to work from home). Its the opposite to all the 'trends' that have gone before really.

Its had 10 positive cases in the last 7 days. (Which I appreciate because of the small numbers also lends itself to margins of statistical area, but the same pattern is starting to emerge across the town both north and south).

@Nellodee

We are using symptoms as a screening device. What is needed is some kind of calculation, not just 50% of all cases of Covid have coughs, but what percentage of all coughs are Covid. Then we need to see which combination of symptoms acts as the best screening indicator. We need to tweak the combinations to affect the specificity and sensitivity of the symptoms we are using, along with the frequency of the symptoms we are looking for, so it actually matches our testing capacity and is most effective in picking up the maximum number of positives. It doesn't seem like a tricky model to create. I realise that getting figures on how many people actually have symptoms is trickier, but this is why we have the Zoe app. However, it seems like they are coming up with lots of useful data, and no-one in power is actually acting on it.

I wish I could be assured that things as simple as this were already being done, but after approximately six months of being sneered at for thinking I know better than the people running the country, I am now completely convinced I know better than the people running the country. I don't think this is arrogance, more just a modicum of self respect.

I think my youngest could do a better job!

I think we have great experts. Its a shame those in government have dismissed experts views on so many occasions.

We do have some great experts. I'm sure if they let the people who designed the Zoe app loose on deciding who should get the tests, they'd make a great job of it.

Unfortunately, we have a government that appears to listen more to the public response to leaks in the Telegraph than it does to actual scientists.

I'll take my ranting out of the data thread now, sorry!

John R@john_actuary
.... here's the regional split.

The NW is now over 4x the low point, just 17 days ago, showing how quickly the virus can take hold again.
NE & Yorkshire is now showing similar growth.

@COVID19actuary

You can't blame anyone for testing due to coughs.

Don't blame the victims. We were told to get back to living with the security of an amazing test system behind us.

Thanks coffee at least we know the positivity rate is accurate then. I was beginning to wk see what we could take from even that simple data!

@FingonTheValiant

Well the situation is looking pretty dire in Marseille now. 31 out of 35 resus beds are filled, and they only have 26 covid beds left (out of 155). Prevalence is 312 per 100,000 with almost 11% positivity on testing.

They announced they were bringing in tougher measures, one of which is limiting large-scale gatherings to 1000 people, seated with 1m between them. Which seems like a total non-measure when one of France's biggest cities has 4 resus beds left

Well I guess the fact they have large scale gatherings and don't gives hope that we won't follow their path 🤞

I am not sure about our great scientists. They were relying on botched models from the start.
Jenny harries said masks are not necessary in the classroom because of students sitting side by side. You would think a top scientist would understand that the human being has a... Neck? Which can be used to talk to people at the side?

The evidence probably didn't show this to her... Yes the government response has been on the back foot but... Any government in the UK would have had to listen to the same... Top.. Scientist.

@Splendidseptember

You can't blame anyone for testing due to coughs.

Don't blame the victims. We were told to get back to living with the security of an amazing test system behind us.

Agree with this, victim blaming is always abhorrent.

Jenny harries said masks are not necessary in the classroom because of students sitting side by side. You would think a top scientist would understand that the human being has a... Neck? Which can be used to talk to people at the side?

Best and most scientifically accurate post on the thread!

Unfortunately the current advice on who should go for a test is completely disconnected from the true test capacity,
Genuine test capacity is unlikely to increase in the near future, so the government need to change its advice to lower the demand for tests

It is not "blaming" those individuals who test for colds or going on holiday etc to say they shouldn't atm
The fault lies with the government and their unrealistic / untruthful statements

Those scientists too close to the government have not always given good advice;
they have sometimes said what the govt wants, rather than giving the full facts.

Those who remain genuinely independent, despite some being govt employees, such as Van-Tam, have been excellent

Sometimes it is necesary to tell the public that what they want is not feasible, at least not in the near future
and to say instead what realistically can be done, what constraints there need to be.

I'm not blaming any individual either. I'm just pointing out that if everyone "needs" a test for every child who gets a cough/sore throat/temperature, and their entire family, then there is no possible test capacity that will be big enough.

And if you add in "social testing" - people who want to go abroad, people who want to test before attending a wedding, people who want to test because they (or relatives) have anxiety and want to be sure, etc etc, then it's not surprising that those who really need tests - those who actually have symptoms, or have been in close contact to a positive person, can't access them.

There should at the very least be priority testing for those who have been told to test (direct contacts, informed by track and trace for example).

@BigChocFrenzy

Sometimes it is necesary to tell the public that what they want is not feasible, at least not in the near future and to say instead what realistically can be done, what constraints there need to be.

When we need this more than we have ever needed it in my lifetime, we have Johnson as PM.

Maybe one day we will look back and laugh at the foolishness of it all, but i don't think so. The cost will be too high.

Instead we will continue to have policies leaked to the most right wing newspapers and decisions will be made on public opinion.

But as long as BJ can be liked..........

So if we are going to get advice on only being tested when X Y or Z is true, what will happen to those for whom only A, B or C is true, where A,B or C are now valid reasons for getting tests?

Will they all "just" have to isolate for ten days?? This will, for example, shut many schools quickly as too many staff will be off isolating or looking after their isolating children. Hospital wards may be unable to find enough (bank) staff, etc etc.

And if those people don't isolate, transmission will increase even more than we suspect it is already.

Is there another solution?

and I apologise. I know my post is not suitable for this thread but my anger is growing

I suspect that out of all children tested with coughs the percentage of diagnosed COVID cases will be very, very low.

It is true that if we restrict testing for coughs, we might miss a small number of COVID transmissions but on the flip side we will release testing capacity which can be redeployed to test people with more prominent COVID symptoms. If we are smart in leveraging available data on correlation between symptoms and test results, the latter should compensate for the former.

People with one of the 3 symptoms should absolutely get tested

Some people are getting tested just with ie a sore throat.... they.... shouldn't be.