Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

@Nellodee

I think at this point, we have to accept that given the issues we have with testing, any case figures we have are unreliable. I feel like we have gone into a tunnel and are blinded at a crucial moment.

We have. And thats exactly what we didn't want to happen and the fear for months has been.

I think it would depend on where the tests were available. So for example according to LBC there have been no tests available at all in any of the top 10 NW hotspots where it might be expected that there could be an increase in cases but it can't be shown because no tests. However there could be an increase in tests available and taken up in rural Cambridgeshire* where a higher proportion are being used by the worried well/ parents who want to check whether their child's cold is Covid where a higher proportion of negative tests might be registered.
*Other sparsely populated areas are available.

I think at this point, we have to accept that given the issues we have with testing, any case figures we have are unreliable. I feel like we have gone into a tunnel and are blinded at a crucial moment

I agree. To what extent can we use the C-19 Zoe App as an alternative guide to levels of infection do you think?

I mentioned the other day that Zoe seemed to be in line with the positive number figure from government which was unusual. But it has been close to it the last couple of days. Previously it’s always been higher.

Today it’s 4220.

@Augustbreeze

But what's usual *@Pertella*? Cases are rising so we expect there to be more this week than last week.

If the number of tests done yesterday is similar to the usual number of tests done, then can we say the lack of tests is why the positive cases are lower.

If the number of tests done yesterday is similar to the usual number of tests done, then can we say the lack of tests is why the positive cases are lower.

That's what's interesting about today's Scottish numbers, which the FM stated are likely incomplete due to the backlog.

11/09/2020 - 12,703 total tests (175 positive)
12/09/2020 - 18,240 total tests (221 positive)
13/09/2020 - 18,303 total tests (244 positive)
14/09/2020 - 12,402 total tests (70 positive)

So today's total tests figure is lower than the past two days, but on a par with the day before that. But the positive results number is much lower.

Tbh I imagine it's a mix of backlog and the worried well taking up the tests.

It's ridiculous the amount of people with zero COVID symptoms complaining that THEY can't get a test. So those who do have symptoms have no chance

@conkersarebonkers

If the number of tests done yesterday is similar to the usual number of tests done, then can we say the lack of tests is why the positive cases are lower.

That's what's interesting about today's Scottish numbers, which the FM stated are likely incomplete due to the backlog.

11/09/2020 - 12,703 total tests (175 positive)
12/09/2020 - 18,240 total tests (221 positive)
13/09/2020 - 18,303 total tests (244 positive)
14/09/2020 - 12,402 total tests (70 positive)

So today's total tests figure is lower than the past two days, but on a par with the day before that. But the positive results number is much lower.

Oh never mind - I think I get it now. The issue is with the number of people tested, rather than the number of tests.

10/09/2020 - 8,693 people tested
11/09/2020 - 6,457 people tested
12/09/2020 - 7,887 people tested
13/09/2020 - 6,527 people tested
14/09/2020 - 2,622 people tested

Big difference today.

@conkersarebonkers that in itself is interesting. Why so many more tests per person on the 14th, compared to previous days?

Surely something has gone wrong with one of those counts?

Or is the "total tests" the tests submitted, and the "people" count only includes ones with results back, maybe?

[quote CaptainMerica]@conkersarebonkers that in itself is interesting. Why so many more tests per person on the 14th, compared to previous days?

Surely something has gone wrong with one of those counts?

Or is the "total tests" the tests submitted, and the "people" count only includes ones with results back, maybe?[/quote]
Why so many tests per person too? Even on the best days, you're still looking at approximately 2 tests per person.
I would expect some people to need more than one test, but that implies that most people do, which surely can't be right.

@MarshaBradyo

What are hospital admissions doing? Deaths too

But understand lag is a big issue

According to this tweet, "782 COVID patients now in hospital in England (was 600 on Friday, was 464 on the 6th September). "

mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1305561154996051970

Good point red about it being a uni city.

Yeah, I don't really understand why there are so many tests per person, particularly when we're looking at daily figures.

Is there equivalent data for UK-wide anywhere? I'm not seeing figures for people tested on the dashboard, only total tests processed and positive cases.

Chart here with 7 day moving average:
mobile.twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1305569540538015747

Are those test figures for Scotland?

Massive discrepancy between number of tests and number of people tested which throws the positivity data into question.

If a person has 3 tests you would assume of positive all 3 are marked positive.

So do they record that as 3 positives or 1?

I'm thinking 1 or the positive cases are way higher than actual and I don't believe that's true.

I heard on news this morning (but was getting ready to not paying complete attention) the actual number of people tested daily is closer to 62k in England.

But we still can't really sort out positivity rates unless we take number of people and number of reported positives? Do people think that's accurate?

They are playing fast and loose with data reporting which makes it very hard to come up with any actual information with certainty.

Are those test figures for Scotland?

The test figures I've posted are for Scotland.

*If a person has 3 tests you would assume of positive all 3 are marked positive.

So do they record that as 3 positives or 1?*

I can remember reading that people can be tested multiple times but are only counted once - will try to find where I saw that.

The positivity data is calculated by the daily people found positive as a percentage of the daily people tested figure.

"The number of people newly tested refers to the number of individuals in Scotland who have been tested for the first time for COVID-19 on the previous day. Note that each person is only counted once regardless of repeat tests. This means that where someone tests positive after receiving a negative test result on a previous day, they would be counted in the new positive cases for that day but in the number of people newly tested on the day they first received a test result."

www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-data-definitions-and-sources/

(Note that the figures I posted earlier are 'people tested' not 'people newly tested'. But the same applies re only being counted once - "Number of people tested refers to the total number of people who have been tested for COVID-19 in Scotland to date. Each person is only counted once regardless of repeat tests.")

@RedToothBrush
What is a provisional town please? And are the towns on your list supposed to be at risk of growing numbers of covid cases?

@Piggywaspushed

Am I correct in saying herd immunity has never been achieved ? (without a vaccination programme, of course!)

I am sure I read that somewhere?

The Charles de Gaule aircraft carrier had 70% infected and then infections seemed to drop, suggesting herd immunity.

Yes, but globally that's not practicable....

Provincial town sorry.

My spelling is appalling.

Smaller town away from larger cities.

You are so wise, red that we all thought it was A Thing!

Tbh, reading the last few pages of this thread and stuff on twitter about testing and headteachers pulling their hair out, I just don't understand anything except knowing what a Bloody Shitstorm.

Charles de Gaule

Service de santé des armées. Investigation de l’épidémie de COVID-19 au sein du Groupe Aéronaval. Service de santé des armées www.defense.gouv.fr/content/download/583466/9938746/file/20200405_929_ARM_SSA_CESPA_rapport_epidemie_covid19_Gan_VEXP.pdf (2020).

Greater Manchester latest numbers.