Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

"A school Boris Johnson visited days ago to promote children returning to education has closed after a staff member tested positive for coronavirus.

Pupils at Castle Rock High School in Coalville, Leicestershire were told to stay at home and self-isolate after a confirmed case of the virus.

Six tutor groups and two PE classes were told to stay home and wait for further instructions from the school to confirm for how long they needed to stay away."

I hope his entourage didnt infect them.

Monoclonal antibody treatment to be used in UK recovery trial:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-news-that-the-recovery-trial-will-evaluate-regenerons-regn-cov2-investigational-antibody-cocktail-in-the-uk/

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54120753

(Same large scale trial that demonstrated the efficacy of dexamethasone).
www.recoverytrial.net/

@Piggywaspushed

Am I correct in saying herd immunity has never been achieved ? (without a vaccination programme, of course!)

I am sure I read that somewhere?

... There is always a % of the population that is just lucky not to have been infected, so the disease remains within the population.

Over time, births will increase the proportion of the population susceptible to the disease, so it may break out again, until herd immunity is achieved again ... this continues in cycles.

Also, catching some diseases only gives immunity for a year or so and then maybe only reduced immunity to different strains
e.g. of the first 4 people proven to have caught a different strain of COVID, 3 had no symptoms but the man in Nevada needed oxygen and was hospitalised

Re lack of capacity / testing.

Psyber Attack @psyberattack
Something very troubling is happening with the 111 Calls in Englnd...

Here's the latest update, with Triages grouped to into a daily total, and per capita 100K daily rate:
github.com/PsyberAttack/COVID-Data/tree/master/UK/England%20111%20Calls

They're getting interesting, so let's take a minute to look at what's happening 👇

I used to think CCGs with over 5 COVID Triages/100K/Day as borderline, and if they cleared 50/week something was happening

During Leicester's crisis their CCG reported ~10-20 Triages/100K/Day

Yesterday only 3 English CCGs were under 5 Triages/100K/Day, and the maximum was 21.34

Probably most worrying of all is that the places lighting up brightest are not the places we'd expect from the testing results

Only Tameside, (15.85), appears from Greater Manchester. No Bolton, (10.86), Leicester, (13.51) Blackburn, (8.73)

Then there's the Isle of Wight...

@BigChocFrenzy

I agree that it is not really too few UK tests, but ineffficient allocation of test resources and unrealistic promises / expectations

However, the recent Times report with that leaked official document shows that the systme is logjammed
and in reality far fewer people are being tested and actually getting results back than we thought,
only about 62,000 per day the previous week

I think we definitely need more tests! as this is the key to getting workplaces and schools running as safely as possible and limiting transmission of infection.

I'd agree that deploying them intelligently is important, and giving people clear and well thought out advice about when to go for testing.

Agreed herecomesthesun. I think with schools we need a good analysis of whether cold symptoms in children is more likely to cause an outbreak than asymptomatic spread. Because people are being forced into testing for coughs/fever at the moment which seemingly are highly likely to be standard colds. That’s not efficient use of resources if actually the spread is more likely to come from some other symptoms.

Today's numbers way down, presumably due to testing inadequacies.

"Due to an issue with Microsoft Azure we are unable to update the dashboard currently.

We can confirm that:

2,621 new positive cases have been recorded on Monday 14 September, a total of 371,125.

9 new deaths have been reported, a total of 41,637"

twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1305523263771205632?s=20

Is that just the figures for England?

Email to say case confirmed of student in ds college.
Teachers and students in that class online learning for 14 days.
This is in a town that's only had 14 cases in 120k population past week although that's double week before.

Very impressed with communication from college.

Interesting about cases dropping today. Agree it's too soon to know why and if a good sign because a) it's a day after weekend b) it's one day and c) we know people can't get tests.

It doesn't say. My guess is UK but I could be wrong!

Red IOW is interesting because lots of people travel to ML for work. Many work in Portsmouth that's seen quite a rise recently.
I also work with someone who does this daily.

So they could be spreading it to ML and around southern towns in Hampshire which will account for some of the rise I would think. But we don't have sufficient enough tracking to know this for sure as no data available to confirm the hypothesis.

itsgettingweird, the interesting thing about the list is that the majority of councils highlighted are provisional towns.

Provisional towns are known to have had the biggest increases in footfall recovery to pre-covid levels:

www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/
See here.

Only 14 towns and cities have recovered to pre-covid levels of footfall so far.
They are
Blackpool
Bournemouth
Birkenhead
Southend
Chatham
Burnley
Basildon
Doncaster
Portsmouth
Telford
Sunderland
Warrington
Wigan
Hull

What concerns me about that 111 list is that you have a fair amount of cross over with the list above. Also Warrington and Sunderland have SHOT up the number of confirmed cases from very few just a couple of weeks ago. (Warrington wasn't even on Friday's PHE watch list for cases, but has the 6th highest number of cases in England now. I've seen surprising little said about this sudden rise. It doesn't seem to be featuring on the radar yet).

So I do wonder what is going on and whether there is a pattern about to emerge.

Too early to tell yet though.

@itsgettingweird

Email to say case confirmed of student in ds college. Teachers and students in that class online learning for 14 days. This is in a town that's only had 14 cases in 120k population past week although that's double week before.

Very impressed with communication from college.

Interesting about cases dropping today. Agree it's too soon to know why and if a good sign because a) it's a day after weekend b) it's one day and c) we know people can't get tests.

Nicola Sturgeon has said that numbers are probably not correct due to backlog in labs.

This is extremely concerning and I am just disgusted by what we have in charge.

Total seems to be 2983 for the UK with 11 deaths. I've pieced that together from various news sources so might not be completely accurate.

That is interesting red. I know about Portsmouth and they have the outlets and also the main city centre with bigger range of high street stores. So people will travel from surrounding areas to the city for shopping.

The longer it takes to get tested, the higher the chance of a false negative. So this will skew numbers too.

I have a friend whose child had quite classic (for children) coronavirus symptoms and it's taken 5 days to get a test.

Scientist (Prof McNally?) on BBC R4 currently, who helped set up the MK lighthouse lab. Discussing poss reasons for test shortage at the moment.

First thing he says is that, of all the rumours he's heard as to reasons, the one that labs are now short staffed as the volunteers from eg research labs have all gone back to normal work now.

Definitive?

Maybe, but then why did the head of the UK In Vitro Diagnostic Services on BBC World at One four hours ago, say almost the exact opposite - staff shortages were definitely an issue, they were frantically recruiting and training people??

😔

I think it is 2621 for the U.K. Clearly a sign of massive problems with testing I assume.

@IloveJKRowling

The longer it takes to get tested, the higher the chance of a false negative. So this will skew numbers too.

I have a friend whose child had quite classic (for children) coronavirus symptoms and it's taken 5 days to get a test.

Is that because (completes) tests go "off", @IloveJKRowling ? There was mention at lunchtime of some labs throwing tests which had become too old out... surely there should be a clinical standard for processing time??

Oh no, sorry @IloveJKRowling, re-reading your post I see you mean the fact that peak infectious ness is closer to day 1 of symptoms. Sorry.

@itsgettingweird

That is interesting red. I know about Portsmouth and they have the outlets and also the main city centre with bigger range of high street stores. So people will travel from surrounding areas to the city for shopping.

I think we have to be mindful of how commuting and shopping patterns have drastically changed since lockdown and where students currently are (and where they will be in a few weeks).

If reopening things and young people are the two things primarily behind rises in covid cases, you'd expect the list above to show bigger rates of increase than other places and this will be followed by sharp rises in a few week in university cities.

I do think, up til now, family and friend contact has be responsible for a large number of cases, but my suspicion is that with things 'getting back to normal' we will see new hotspots arriving and these places would be my top tips to keep a close eye on.

Today's numbers way down, presumably due to testing inadequacies

Would that only be a possibility if the total number of tests processed was lower than usual?

But what's usual @Pertella? Cases are rising so we expect there to be more this week than last week.

I think at this point, we have to accept that given the issues we have with testing, any case figures we have are unreliable. I feel like we have gone into a tunnel and are blinded at a crucial moment.

What are hospital admissions doing? Deaths too

But understand lag is a big issue