Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

The obsession with school attendance needs to change. Directions need to come from government that no school will be judged on attendance and that no child should be sent to school with a cold. This would reduce transmission of routine cold viruses and lighten the load on testing

Agreed. So many MN posters in knots trying to get DC's tested because they have a cold, or they are taking temps every day, and slightly elevated. This must stop. Yes, of course a few will be Covid, but the majority, 97% ish, will be negative. A standard cold and a cough. Schools must also stop requiring negative test for a child with a cold, just keep them home.

Don’t want to add to an over focus on schools - but kids going in with a cold etc it’s not just about school attendance. It’s also about parents who need to go to work or else they won’t get paid and/or will lose their jobs. Many parents don’t have alternative childcare and can’t just keep children off school easily and not for a cold.

Also - and I’m not saying this is right and do get the bigger picture meaning this could cause wider school closure - but many parents are desperate for their kids to be back in school and learning. It’s a big mental leap to keep your child off for things they would have been previously sent in for ( and I say that as someone who does generally keep my kids off but recognise I’m in a privileged position re my employer)

The trouble is that the reason these kids catch so colds is because parents sent the first lot in while poorly, then that one kid infected the whole class. Whose parents equally can't afford all the time off waiting for pointless covid tests when the cough is just phlegm from the end of a sniffy cold. Frankly, for the few who have covid, staying home a few days covers their most infectious period anyway.

www.bristol.ac.uk/news/2020/september/commins-study.html

This looks like a very interesting study to keep an eye on

Scotland confirming 70 new cases today (2.7%). The FM believes the figures are incomplete due to the backlog, which is causing concern.

That’s does look really interesting @BigBeanBag. Wonder how quickly it will report

Southampton believe their rapid test detects the most infectious accurately. www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/09/rapid-covid-test.page

By implication it doesnt do well on less infectious, but they dont say that, and current testing has a fairly high failure rate if not done when people are most infectious.

Wiconsin currently has really high positive test rates, and it seems their university is a big part of the problem eu.greenbaypressgazette.com/story/news/2020/09/13/wisconsin-coronavirus-1-582-cases-listed-positive-rate-up-20-5/5786656002/

and eu.jsonline.com/story/news/education/2020/09/11/university-wisconsin-students-caught-chaos-covid-19-lockdown/3468232001/

Both my kids have got a cold.

They are sniffing a bit but don't have a particularly runny nose.

They don't generally get a cough with a cold but they may have the occasional sneeze.

They feel well in themselves.

Am I reall supposed to keep them home?

Sick yes, totally get that, but some kids have a permanent cold.

@NeurotrashWarrior

As I said before; keyworkers and teachers with primary age children would really struggle and then schools would struggle. As would single parents - who are mostly women. So that policy would damage Women’s equality further.

... Well, it's the policy in Germany but there doen't seem to be the same school staff shortages here and there are more rights to parental leave However, it is near impossible to sack someone in Germany after the 6 month probation period

@Timeforanotherusername - that's why schools need discretion instead of blanket statements about who should or shouldn't go in. Minor sniffing is par for the course, but some people's version of "oh s/he's fine" (and full of calpol) can look very poorly to everyone else. Schools might also take a stricter line when there are more or less cases in the area.

The other issue is that in some children a cold will be a tiny sniffle.

The same virus may trigger a temp and quite a bad illness in another, just like Covid 19.

We can't predict how a virus will affect a child. They may even be completely asymptomatic.

I do agree that teaching staff in schools would actually prefer children to be kept off when ill; both moderately ill and obviously very ill (I would!) but it's very challenging in reality and children would miss a lot of school.

It's a bit victim blamey when the real issue is lack of tests, as being described and analyses on world at 1 r4.

I agree @NeurotrashWarrior - the focus should be on the government and the testing system

Why "herd immunity" by just letting it rip costs far more lives

Adam Kucharski @AdamJKucharski (Mathematician/epidemiologist at LSHTM, WellcomeTrust)

I still see the persistent, but incorrect, claim that control measures just delay - rather than reduce - the impact of an epidemic.

A thread on the problem of 'overshoot'... 1/

This claim seems to arise from a misunderstanding about two related, but different metrics:

the % of people infected during an epidemic,

and the point at which immunity leads to a decline in transmission 2/

In an uncontrolled epidemic, 'herd immunity' is reached at the peak (because R

That is something to remember if you get tempted by the siren song of "why didn't we do like Sweden"

• also disregarding the fact that the UK has 12 x the population density, which is a major factor in infection spread and hence deaths

Also, the UK is far from herd immunity with overall < 10% immunity,
so it wouldn't be 20% on top of current deaths, but of a much higher number of deaths

When we compare Sweden to other Scandinavian countries, we see Sweden has 5-12 x total deaths / million population

The phrase "lack of tests" makes me a little uncomfortable from a data perspective. The UK is testing more per head of population that the majority of other countries. It's testing more than Spain, France, Germany etc etc. The only countries testing more per '000 population are UAE, Bahrain, Luxembourg, Denmark, Malta, Singapore, Israel, USA, Iceland, Russia, Australia, Lithuania and Qatar.
ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-cumulative-total-tests-per-thousand-map?tab=table&year=latest&time=2020-08-29..2020-09-01.

To get ahead of covid right now, the government clearly need to increase test supply, fix supply chain issues and look at improving the policies, guidance and checks on who is tested. That said, I don't think it's realistic to consider that it can ever be unlimited tests for everyone who fancies.

I agree that it is not really too few UK tests,
but ineffficient allocation of test resources and unrealistic promises / expectations

However, the recent Times report with that leaked official document shows that the systme is logjammed
and in reality far fewer people are being tested and actually getting results back than we thought,
only about 62,000 per day the previous week

The Radio 4 World at One report on test shortages was worrying: depressing (Lab staff shortages, lab shortages, disagreement between Randox and government, disagreement over when a completed test becomes invalid if not processed). However the interviewers did not ask the questions I would have:

• Did no one model how many tests would be needed as schools returned? Or at least, look at what happened in Scotland (as they returned earlier), extrapolate that to the whole country and decide what should happen?

• If tests are effectively rationed, how should they be rationed to best prevent spread?

• If our testing and tracing isn't meeting the necessary targets and cases are starting to rise anyway, should we be (briefly?) licking down now in order to stop the virus getting completely out of control? Scientists have already said we're "on a knife edge"!

Well I kept DD2 off this morning for minor sniffles which have now turned into major runny nose / eyes (she looks like she's crying poor little petal) and a fever.

The advice from the school is 'a high temperature - this means you feel hot to touch on your chest or back (you do not need to measure your temperature);'

Well I have cold hands so whenever I touch skin of any kind it feels hot to me, my temp is normal, hers is 38.3, but our skin feels the same to me.

So that's helpful.

I looked to book a test and it keeps coming back with none available, I also had to put in something for occupation and employer despite the fact I'm trying to book for a 3 year old.

I did enjoy providing feedback though.

Also, 'high fever' is so subjective. As is 'feel hot to touch'.

Supply teacher taught me a little trick - (only for your own children!) press your lips to their forehead and if it feels similar they're ok; a temp is usually noticeably higher ok the lips.

@IloveJKRowling - the school are quoting the NHS guidance there, which is all I think they can do.

Am I correct in saying herd immunity has never been achieved ? (without a vaccination programme, of course!)

I am sure I read that somewhere?

twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1305498910249676801?s=09

According to LBC, no tests available in Covid19 hotspots.