Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

Above suggestion on antibodies was for piggy, Quarantino

Interestingly the local high school have had one case in a pupil, but due to somehow being able to identify close contacts, only they are isolating. Although it looks as if the pupil was pretty much on in on the first day back and then fell ill so it may have been easier.

In comparison, I've been told by a friend in Germany that a couple of cases in a secondary school has led to the entire school community being tested all at once, staff and pupils. Area has a spike in cases already. This avoids the two week isolation period.

That approach would be helpful in many areas with increasing infections in the U.K.

Unfortunately, I can't see it happening here.

If the government wanted it to happen here, they'd probably demand the whole community actually travelled to Germany to get tested.

This avoids the two week isolation period.
If true, they'll come to regret that. Testing all the students and staff is good, but they aren't necessarily infectious for 14 days post-infection. Let them all go back and it'll be another circle of testing before long.

That's what I thought, maybe BogChoc. 13000 is a hell of a lot of people!

Whoops! BIGChoc!

@MRex

This avoids the two week isolation period. If true, they'll come to regret that. Testing all the students and staff is good, but they aren't necessarily infectious for 14 days post-infection. Let them all go back and it'll be another circle of testing before long.

Actually I don't know that they're not self isolating for two weeks. As that would defeat the purpose!

I've also heard about whole form or school testing here, with brief closure for extra deep clean of course

14 day isolation with symptoms is mandatory
and even a child sick with non-COVID symptoms of cold etc must stay home until well

but afaik they wouldn't isolate all those other students without any symptoms - they return to school

It's a matter of balancing risk vs education
So far, there have only been isolated cases and a tiny % of school closures

There are 11 million school students in Germany and 700,000 teachers

Of course those with positive tests stay home, even without symptoms !

13000 is about 1.4% of teachers in Germany, because they have newly twice as many as the UK. The main question is what percentage of the German population overall has covid. Test positivity is 0.8% with 1349 cases per day. I can't find their official estimated case number - @BigChocFrenzy do you know it?

Sorry, it's 1.9% of teachers, there are 686,000 teachers in Germany, I had remembered the French total instead .

@MRex

13000 is about 1.4% of teachers in Germany, because they have newly twice as many as the UK. The main question is what percentage of the German population overall has covid. Test positivity is 0.8% with 1349 cases per day. I can't find their official estimated case number - *@BigChocFrenzy* do you know it?

... That report refers to teachers in Italy, Mrex not Germany

I haven't seen any estimate of the total people infected here, just that there have been 0.74% positive tests the last 2 weeks - it has been going down slowly since the week 32 peak of 1%

even a child sick with non-COVID symptoms of cold etc must stay home until well This is a big difference with the UK and will be our downfall.

Snotty noses, streaming with cold, even now, send them in.

Looking at the RKI table, since the pandemic began, in Germany there have been in total:

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/NeuartigesCoronavirus/Situationsberichte/Septt_2020/2020-09-13-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

3,824 positive cases
174 hospitalised
7 dead

for all those employed in schools, childcare, nurseries etc

I don't have figures since schools reopened, but there have been no further deaths, as I monitor that table

On a previous thread, I found age groups for teachers, estimated >1 million employees in total, and calculated that the figure of 7 deaths was about the population average

There are v few deaths in total of working age people,
with 35 deaths for age 20-39 and 458 for age 20-59

Oh, sorry! I give up then!

All indications are that a lower % of the German population has antibodies & hence immunity / resistance than in the UK,
going both by the different numbers of deaths and the detailled surveys of selected towns by the RKI & others.

Early lockdown, mass t&t etc reduced the number of cases here but early hospitalisations would only have improved death rates by a limited amount
The major factors in the low death rate - so far ! - go back to the March / April period, keeping down the number of cases and protecting care home residents

So if Germany gets a genuine 2nd wave this winter, we'll be dependent once again on Merkel & the 16 states' leaders to make the right decisions again, or we will be seriously fucked

I think the UK is similarly fucked if our government screw up the decisions, we're nowhere near herd immunity, most countries are the same. I see more caution than March in these earlier partial lockdowns, quarantines, closing the planned events, rule of 6 and lots of testing. But I think some major actions needed are:

1. stop parents sending sick kids to school / nursery or asking for tests for a sniffle, with rules about just staying home a few days if it isn't the major symptoms - to reduce both the number of viruses and general testing chaos; gone heads more control to do temperature checks and send kids home (after calling parents obviously!) at their own discretion (e.g. glazed eyes doped on calpol, send home)
2. clarity about local rates needed for shielding and/or remote school learning for older year groups in particular; and test out the support structures early e.g. Bolton could do with staying home for a few weeks
3. payments for isolating (self/ kids/ household) need to be improved and well advertised
4. more testing capacity; even with reduced demand from fixing some of the chaos around kids, it looks like there needs to be much more done this
5. improve reporting on infection sources; overseas, pubs, schools, household... the risks appear to be varying from area to area so we need to track and show them by area to help councils improve local understanding of their risks.

No news to be had on sewage so far. I've had a reply from DEFRA, who followed up directly with the project team; their response was: "The results have yet to be fully analysed and verified. As these are new analyses for the Environment Agency to undertake, it may take some time before the results can be released."
Sorry all!

@itsgettingweird This may have been answered already but in case it hasnt you can get the population breakdown by age on the ONS website

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/november2018#the-uk-population-is-ageing

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I don't know about anyone else, but I am feeling quite anxious with the whole thing the last few days.

The data is not good.

I didn't expect to see case rises to this extent so soon - it's still "summer". We haven't hit the colder weather and shorter evenings yet, when so much of our day-to-day activity will move indoors.

Not sure what winter is going to look like.

Really hope I am wrong and this latest increase in cases is just a blip.

stop parents sending sick kids to school / nursery or asking for tests for a sniffle, with rules about just staying home a few days if it isn't the major symptoms - to reduce both the number of viruses and general testing chaos
This^

The obsession with school attendance needs to change. Directions need to come from government that no school will be judged on attendance and that no child should be sent to school with a cold. This would reduce transmission of routine cold viruses and lighten the load on testing.

As I said before; keyworkers and teachers with primary age children would really struggle and then schools would struggle. As would single parents - who are mostly women. So that policy would damage Women’s equality further.