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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18

999 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 12/09/2020 18:03

Welcome to thread 18 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
Zoe Uk data
UK govt pressers Slides & data
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment

==> Our STUDIES Corner

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Thread gallery
50
BigChocFrenzy · 13/09/2020 21:31

@Mogtheforgetfulmum

I'm in a secondary school and starting to feel anxious at how vulnerable I am Sad we have already lost 2 family members this year and one is suffering from long haul covid.
... I'm sorry to hear about your losses 💐
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AnyFucker · 13/09/2020 21:34

My memory could be failing me but I thought the Uk caught up and went waaaay beyond our European friends wrt to case numbers and deaths. Then we have spent a substantial amount of time doing relatively "well" (hate that term, it's not a competition but you know what I mean)

So I don't think our trajectory will necessarily be the same

Cactusali · 13/09/2020 21:46

@jimmyhill

To give hospital numbers some perspective, not all admissions will be people actively suffering from Covid

Many of them hit by buses

I love a bit of sarcasm - which is presumably your intent. But yes, quite possible that someone with a broken leg would be tested on admission and found to be covid-positive. Or a percentage of people suffering heart attacks, strokes. I’m saying the numbers of COVID admissions don’t necessarily reflect the number of people admitted primarily with the virus.
Oldbagface · 13/09/2020 21:47

Not to derail but on 28th February my daughter went to a concert with 20 thousand people in the venue.

I would not allow that now. We didn't realise then about exponential. We do now.

The testing fiasco is unforgivable. Anecdotal evidence suggests people are now over it and ignoring guidance.

What a mess.

MRex · 13/09/2020 21:48

The "4 weeks behind" question. It's just a way of plotting the rate of growth, because it gives people that mental connection back to March. Back in March we thought we were lower down the curve than we were, because of insufficient testing and lots of hidden community spread all over the country. Now we're all testing more, so the percentage positivity has gone down and each country finds our places on the exponential curves sooner than we did last time. It's hard to compare exactly because each country has slightly different rules, testing practices vary, culture and housing vary... but we do know that the number of infections are increasing in all 3 countries and know that exponential growth gets faster and faster. Having learned more since earlier this year, all three governments are keen to suppress this at the earliest point they can. Seems sensible.

BunsyGirl · 13/09/2020 21:52

Looks like there are testing problems in France too: www.thelocal.fr/20200909/covid-19-why-testing-one-million-people-a-week-is-giving-france-a-real-headache

Nellodee · 13/09/2020 21:54

"Catching up" in terms of numbers of deaths doesn't mean that our graphs are in sync in terms of time displacement, though. I've bodged this together. The UK is the top graph, France is on the bottom. You can see that we peaked a good while after them, took a lot longer to come down, and then didn't start to rise until a fair while afterwards.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18
Nellodee · 13/09/2020 21:55

Sorry, those graphs are in terms of cases, not deaths.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/09/2020 21:55

I think as a rule of thumb when comparing the numbers of cases between countries, you have to factor in test positivity too

France has ~3 x UK cases and ~2.5 x Uk test positivity
==> I estimate them as probably having 7-8 x UK cases in reality ... unless someone has a French infection surveillance report to improve on my ballpark factor

Even more importantly is that they have a higher gradient of tise in both cases and hospitalisations
ICU admissions and deaths have been rising too

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Ecosse · 13/09/2020 21:59

@BigChocFrenzy

Only 48 deaths in Spain on Saturday and only 8% of the COVID beds are occupied.

The hope has to be that this continued and we learn that high cases does not necessarily equal high deaths.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/09/2020 22:08

That article from France had this quote:
""People threaten to sue us because they missed their plane due to delays in testing."

France - like our earlier discussion of the UK - has people openly testing so they can fly abroad !
Madness

However, France testing 1 million per week is a good level
It is e.g. the current German level, although Germany can reportedly ramp up testing quite a lot if need be over winter

A country's test capacity depends on its ability to produce or source the kits, lab capacity, trained staff etc

The UK started this crisis in what should have been a strong position, with a large pharmaceutical industray, good number of labs, trained staff, excellent potential to rapidly ramp up testing.
That's why it is so frustrating it took months to reach this level

The UK is now testing one of the highest % of its population compared to other countries
(Although according to that Times story, the actual numbers tested may be lower than we think and some samples are being sent to labs in Germany & Italy)

It is not feasible to test all those with symptoms during an epidemic, even far from peak, so there must be sensible criteria, especially during winter
No unofficial whispers of PHE to schools; be transparent with the public
No country in the world can test everyone who wants it, or who has a single mild symptom

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BigChocFrenzy · 13/09/2020 22:20

[quote Ecosse]@BigChocFrenzy

Only 48 deaths in Spain on Saturday and only 8% of the COVID beds are occupied.

The hope has to be that this continued and we learn that high cases does not necessarily equal high deaths.[/quote]
...
we don't have high cases compared to March-April;
European countries at peak had 20-50 x cases now
hence the comparatively low deaths

With current SD measures plus some limited degree of immunity, European countries should have the tools to avoid a return to those levels - estimated up to 200,000 daily at the UK peak

However, exponential growth in Spain & France could still lead to multiples of current cases and deaths,
which might be significantly lower than previous peak levels, but still an emergency situation
Ditto Uk & any other countries

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Piggywaspushed · 13/09/2020 22:22

I was reading this article :

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/13/older-teachers-in-italy-fear-covid-19-risks-as-schools-return

and was amazed by the provisions in Italian schools ,and the testing really but also the age of Italian teachers !

Can anyone explain this bit?

At the same time, about 13,000 teaching and non-teaching staff will not immediately return to school after testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies as part of a blanket screening carried out last week, leaving many schools understaffed.

Why would this keep staff off school?

CoffeeandCroissant · 13/09/2020 22:27

[quote Ecosse]@Nquartz

Except Spain and France and weeks ahead of us and neither are reporting huge deaths or hospital admissions like March.[/quote]
That's because the number of infections isn't comparable with March:

ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-new-estimated-infections-of-covid-19?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&year=latest&country=~ESP&region=World

ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-new-estimated-infections-of-covid-19?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&year=latest&country=~FRA&region=World

Derbygerbil · 13/09/2020 22:33

@Ecosse

Only 48 deaths in Spain on Saturday and only 8% of the COVID beds are occupied. The hope has to be that this continued and we learn that high cases does not necessarily equal high deaths.

Had Spain said that “there’s no need to be concerned as high cases don’t necessarily lead to
high deaths”, and carried on regardless in the false assurance, there would have doubtless been a further big rise in cases and deaths. 30 positive test now would have been equivalent to 1 test back in March, so high as Spain’s infections have been recently, they remain massively lower than they were six months back.

Ecosse · 13/09/2020 22:39

Spain isn’t in lockdown and schools and restaurants are open as normal @Derbygerbil.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/09/2020 22:53

@Ecosse

Spain isn’t in lockdown and schools and restaurants are open as normal *@Derbygerbil*.
... NOT as normal Like the rest of us, Spain have mask laws and limits on numbers of people

Restaurants have SD (or are supposed to !) and afaik take contact details

Schools:
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-spanish-children-masks-school.html

"Children above the age of six in Spain will be required to wear face masks at school at all times, the government said
...
As well as mask-wearing, pupils will also have to maintain a social distance of 1.5 metres (five feet) from each other, Celaa said,
except for young children who will be allowed to mix only with their classmates but not with outsiders.

Other measures include requiring children to wash their hands at least five times a day, regularly ventilating classrooms and taking pupils' temperature."

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MRex · 13/09/2020 23:10

@Ecosse - restaurants are open, but the nightclubs that had opened up have been closed again. It's back to risk again; wear mask in shop = low risk, noisy environments with no mask = high risk.

wheresmymojo · 13/09/2020 23:11

Also...I thought the latest numbers from France were 250 hospital admissions per day?

Have I made that up?

BigChocFrenzy · 13/09/2020 23:55

@wheresmymojo

Also...I thought the latest numbers from France were 250 hospital admissions per day?

Have I made that up?

... Latest figures have 2,464 new admissions over the last 7 days ==> averages 350 / day

I also see that test positivity has now risen to 5.4 %

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 18
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Quarantino · 14/09/2020 00:25

@Piggywaspushed

I was reading this article :

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/13/older-teachers-in-italy-fear-covid-19-risks-as-schools-return

and was amazed by the provisions in Italian schools ,and the testing really but also the age of Italian teachers !

Can anyone explain this bit?

At the same time, about 13,000 teaching and non-teaching staff will not immediately return to school after testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies as part of a blanket screening carried out last week, leaving many schools understaffed.

Why would this keep staff off school?

No, I don't get this either, unless they could somehow tell that they were infectious within the last two weeks?
IceCreamSummer20 · 14/09/2020 00:27

@AnyFucker another way of looking at it, is from when a countries numbers were low - to when things open up again like cafes, businesses.

In Europe, different countries came ‘out’ of lockdown at different times.

UK came ‘out’ of lockdown a few weeks later than many EU countries.

As numbers rise exponentially, they can increase quickly. But say if Spain came out of lockdown in week 30 (not real, for an example); and UK week 33. Then we might say UK is 3 weeks behind Spain.

It’s just confusing to think of when we went into lockdown. What matters for comparisons are when lockdown was lifted. And of course everyone has lifted restricted in different ways, so we can’t compare in a simplified way either!

@Ecosse I saw an interesting comparison with NY and Madrid. NY has not seen another big increase like Madrid, despite being similar, densely packed cities who had severe initial outbreaks. The analysis pointed to Madrid opening it’s restaurants at 60% capacity, and not enforcing this, so many people mingling close together indoors. Testing capacity was low and contact tracing not good quality. NY on the other hand, has good testing, and has not yet opened it’s restaurants which will be at a strictly enforced lower capacity.

BigChocFrenzy · 14/09/2020 00:51

[quote IceCreamSummer20]@AnyFucker another way of looking at it, is from when a countries numbers were low - to when things open up again like cafes, businesses.

In Europe, different countries came ‘out’ of lockdown at different times.

UK came ‘out’ of lockdown a few weeks later than many EU countries.

As numbers rise exponentially, they can increase quickly. But say if Spain came out of lockdown in week 30 (not real, for an example); and UK week 33. Then we might say UK is 3 weeks behind Spain.

It’s just confusing to think of when we went into lockdown. What matters for comparisons are when lockdown was lifted. And of course everyone has lifted restricted in different ways, so we can’t compare in a simplified way either!

@Ecosse I saw an interesting comparison with NY and Madrid. NY has not seen another big increase like Madrid, despite being similar, densely packed cities who had severe initial outbreaks. The analysis pointed to Madrid opening it’s restaurants at 60% capacity, and not enforcing this, so many people mingling close together indoors. Testing capacity was low and contact tracing not good quality. NY on the other hand, has good testing, and has not yet opened it’s restaurants which will be at a strictly enforced lower capacity.[/quote]
...
I posted the detailled Madrid vs Spain comparison upthread

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BigChocFrenzy · 14/09/2020 00:51

Madrid vs New York !
bedtime !

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BigChocFrenzy · 14/09/2020 00:56

"At the same time, about 13,000 teaching and non-teaching staff will not immediately return to school after testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies as part of a blanket screening carried out last week, leaving many schools understaffed."

Maybe screening was for IgM antibodies ?
because these indicate a current infection - more accurate than swab tests

As the infection clears, IgM antibodies decay and can no longer be detected.
Once that has happened, "IgG" antibodies form, which provide immunity and indicate a previous infection
They normally stay in the blood for months.

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