No one can fix this apart from us

[notevenat20]

It's clear that numbers of cases are now going up rapidly. It seems likely we will copy either Spain or France but a few weeks behind. The only way to stop this is for us to change our behaviour. There is no other way.

We need to stop socialising, wear masks, wash our hands, keep our distance and not decide to break the law/do the opposite just because the govt annoys us. We don't need to wait for the govt to pass laws or tell us what to do. We already know.

No one can fix this apart from us.

Unfortunately no one can 'fix' the virus and make it completely disappear unless the scientists come up with a viable vaccine.

We tried general lockdowns but I think we need to accept now that it is here to stay.

Most people already wear masks/wash hands/respect social distancing when out.

Infections were always going to rise. We have to accept that.

Places like Sweden and Japan got the right idea as far as I am concerned, they choose not to impose draconian lockdown because they accepted this would only delay the inevitable.

The UK government has been particularly inept though and there is no excuse for them not having a proper track and trace system and enough testing facilities by now. This is the real issue, not something that can be blamed on the majority of the general public who are respecting the rules.

User - which is why we need to keep watching those kind of stats, rather than just number of cases, to see what actually does happen. They believe that in Europe the virus has changed - more easily spread, but less serious. If this is the case than we really do need to look at much more than just reporting positive cases appearing. Again though, time will tell.

Places like Sweden and Japan got the right idea as far as I am concerned, they choose not to impose draconian lockdown because they accepted this would only delay the inevitable.

South Korea has done much better than both those countries. I find it interesting that we can’t copy them. It’s not really clear that Sweden is a success story.

They believe that in Europe the virus has changed - more easily spread, but less serious.

I am not sure this is true. Can you link to a scientific paper saying this?

The absolute number of cases is hard to interpret because it depends on the number of tests. But the growth is informative and we are currently in a bad state on that front.

You can't copy South Korea because it is six months too late. Same for New Zealand

It's spread right across the UK. Our model has to be different to reflect the fact that we have widespread community transmission in multiple areas

Wanting to copy South Korea was a good idea in February. I was a big fan. As a nation, we chose not to. That door is closed. We can copy Sweden or Spain, Brazil or the USA, or follow our own path, but we can't pretend Korea is an option. So ... series of lockdown-release for a number of years, or ignore it completely and let it burn through, or social distance without lockdown but with some measures to protect where 90% of deaths occur - carehomes.

There’s so much that we don’t know and it renders all this ‘x did better’ stuff fairly pointless.

There’s more than one strain of the virus out there (which they know for sure). There’s much speculation that one strain might be less deadly but also more infectious (which they haven’t proven yet, but are looking at). There’s also speculation that exposure to other CV could help immunity (which might explain why some of the Asian countries were not hit as badly).

We can’t say for sure that all countries are dealing with the same thing. There are also geographic, social, cultural factors which are different across each country and impact what works or what doesn’t.

For example, Japan’s ‘good’ performance could be explained by the less deadly strain being dominant from the start, some immunity built up already from CV exposure and lack of mass testing picking up large numbers of mild/asymptomatic cases that are freaking out much of Europe at the minute.

The European cases are interesting. Even allowing for lags and younger people being infected, the fatality and serous illness rates are much lower for all age groups than they were in March/April. We don’t know if that’s because the tests are picking up many negligible cases, the virus itself is having a different effect, or something else entirely.

In short, the numbers don’t mean exactly what they meant in March. Obviously they are still highly concerning and the situation can change, but response should be proportionate to serous illness, not cases.

Notevenat20

No, I have no intention of finding a peer reviewed paper stating this. I know it's a MN favourite saying thee days but no, I won't. If you wish to find one then you are free to research it yourself.

As I said - it's simply something that's been in the press over the past couple of weeks. I never claimed it to be fact. I said 'they believe' not 'they know this is for definitely' after all.

Whether or not it's true or not, I don't know. It's been reported across the media so maybe time will tell, and maybe it's something we need to be looking at more - not just focusing on number of cases, but how many are actually properly sick with it.

@PremierInn

You can't copy South Korea because it is six months too late. Same for New Zealand

It's spread right across the UK. Our model has to be different to reflect the fact that we have widespread community transmission in multiple areas

Wanting to copy South Korea was a good idea in February. I was a big fan. As a nation, we chose not to. That door is closed. We can copy Sweden or Spain, Brazil or the USA, or follow our own path, but we can't pretend Korea is an option. So ... series of lockdown-release for a number of years, or ignore it completely and let it burn through, or social distance without lockdown but with some measures to protect where 90% of deaths occur - carehomes.

If people social distance and show common sense then we can keep a handle on it.

But we're not social distancing in schools, so that's going to spread the virus to teachers and kids will send it home to their parents who then have to 'go back to the office' and spread it there etc etc.

Parties have to stop. People have to follow the new guidelines but the government are not helping with mixed messages of 'get back to the office' and 'eat out to help out' and not putting measures in place to stem the spread in schools.

Whether or not it's true or not, I don't know. It's been reported across the media so maybe time will tell, and maybe it's something we need to be looking at more - not just focusing on number of cases, but how many are actually properly sick with it.

I agree raw numbers of cases are hard to interpret. But I do believe that exponential increase in numbers of cases is always bad. Let me explain a little why.

One thing that can happen is widespread infection amongst people under 30, say. Then you see a rapid increase in cases but very little increase in hospitalisations and deaths. It is tempting to then say all is fine. But that is an illusion sadly.

Once the virus becomes widespread in the under 30s, it is inevitable that those over 30 catch it. The populations are not completely separated in society. Those under 30 are sons and daughters, they work in shops and cafes and look after older people.

So what you see is first a rapid increase in cases but not deaths, then after a few weeks an increase in hospitalisations and then later deaths.

@notevenat20

They believe that in Europe the virus has changed - more easily spread, but less serious.

I am not sure this is true. Can you link to a scientific paper saying this?

The absolute number of cases is hard to interpret because it depends on the number of tests. But the growth is informative and we are currently in a bad state on that front.

There are a large number of papers suggesting this, including a very interesting one from Italy. However, it is impossible to say whether it is "less serious" because the baseline is majorly guesswork. You could just as easily suggest that our improved treatment knowledge means it is less serious. Or that it has already killed the most vulnerable to it so there are fewer serious cases. A number of the papers are referenced in this article if you would like to take a scan of them - www.newscientist.com/article/2252699-covid-19-is-becoming-less-deadly-in-europe-but-we-dont-know-why/#:~:text=Several%20researchers%20have%20told%20New,19%20is%20becoming%20less%20deadly.

Another question would be "less serious than what". Unmitigated flu - which still happens - is pretty serious. Sepsis is pretty serious. Malaria is really, really serious in many places. In the UK we have become complacent, secure in the knowledge that there is very little out there that harms us. Every single year, around 47,000 in the UK die from sepsis. Hardly anyone knows that. The general population has a wholly unrealistic concept of how safe they are! What coronavirus has taught us is that we are nowhere near as clever, as immune to the risks of life, or as much in control, as we thought we were. Many communities around the world live with far greater risks every single day - often from preventable causes. That is what scares us - that we are no longer in control. The myth is that we ever were.

*Moondust001

Just as a sanity check, has someone published the CFR per age range for now compared to a few months ago?