No one can fix this apart from us

[notevenat20]

It's clear that numbers of cases are now going up rapidly. It seems likely we will copy either Spain or France but a few weeks behind. The only way to stop this is for us to change our behaviour. There is no other way.

We need to stop socialising, wear masks, wash our hands, keep our distance and not decide to break the law/do the opposite just because the govt annoys us. We don't need to wait for the govt to pass laws or tell us what to do. We already know.

No one can fix this apart from us.

The longer people don’t comply to the bare minimum of masks and SD, the longer the more restrictive rules will continue.

We know that’s bollocks. We can clamp down on the virus but the second we open stuff up again it resurges. It isn’t going anywhere.

@toobusytothink

Redlocks28 Indeed, but many people going to work and school can’t socially distance-there just isn’t room. Yep so in every other part of life we need to step up and take responsibility.

This is my favourite quote of the day!!! People are using the fact kids are at school to say oh well may as well all meet up after school/at the weekend then .... when actually they should be being more careful.

Indeed. Risks are greater in schools, workplaces and public transport, so people should reduce risks in other areas, such as socialising to balance it. If there was low levels of infection in the communities around schools, then there'd be less chance of it being passed around in schools - i.e. if the staff/kids don't have it, they won't be spreading it around the school. So, to stop schools closing etc, parents & staff need to take precautions outside school so they don't take it in with them, i.e. masks, social distancing, reduced socialising, etc etc.

It’s not bollocks. SD and hand hygiene are effective in reducing transmission of infection.

China welded people’s doors and windows closed

I work 'in' Chinese homes online. I spend an hour a week in 36 different Chinese family homes and have witnessed hundreds of family dramas unfolding in 2020.

They are just like us. In their parenting, in their worries, in their kindnesses and frustrations.

Bored. Staying home. Sometimes able to go to classes, sometimes travelling for work, sometimes having to stay home again. A lot better recently following months of hard lockdown.

There may have been some doors welded shut but really, this is not the norm. Chinese families on the whole are seriously just like us and have been going through the same restrictions and concerns. They were subjected to a more stringent lockdown but so was Spain.

They are now frequently out and about but others are choosing to go nowhere unnecessarily.

If their strategy has worked, it's not because they welded anything. They're extremely good at test and trace which probably has a great deal more to do with it.

And yes we all know it is not going anywhere.

@TheKeatingFive

The longer people don’t comply to the bare minimum of masks and SD, the longer the more restrictive rules will continue.

We know that’s bollocks. We can clamp down on the virus but the second we open stuff up again it resurges. It isn’t going anywhere.

Not bollocks - it's realistic common sense. The basics can help stop the spread so fewer people will be infected and it buys us time until better treatments or a vaccine becomes available. No one said covid is going to disappear - we have to keep it controlled and infections at low levels, i.e. get R back below 1.

I don't believe it did work though, I wouldn't believe anything put out by the Chinese government.

One question @fashionmask, do they still have the enforced quarantine hotels mentioned above in China?

There may have been some doors welded shut but really, this is not the norm

Ah ok. As long as it was only ‘some’ doors it was fine then .
Of course I know Chinese people are people like any other. Of course I know that Chinese families are just like us. I’ve spent significant time in China. I’m not entirely sure what your point is, as I was commenting on government policy, not the values of its citizens.

There seems to be a prevailing attitude on MN that anyone who wants to comply with CV arrangements is some kind of scaredy cat snowflake. We are told ‘it’s not going awAy!!!’ We know! I’m not scared of the virus FFS but I’m scared of an increase in restrictions. I don’t want my kids out of school again.

@Hyperfish101 like a lot of other people I'll comply with hand washing, masks, etc but I won't be doing what the OP says and not socialising, I intend to do what I can while I can.

Hit post too soon. Of other people want to impose extra restrictions on themselves then fine, that doesn't make them a snowflake. They need to accept that others won't be doing the extra though and that it doesn't make them wrong

My own opinion. Probably not going to be many who agree with this

There is unlikley to be a vaccine thats completely reliable. Mutations will eventually happen if not already
Its possible antibody immunity isnt long term

I think we will have to just get on with this and ensure those vulnerable protect as best they can. Cant keep shutting down the economy any country. Its not going away.

I don't know, is the honest answer to that.

Look, I wouldn't believe any figures put out by any government as they're all shamelessly massaged for a positive spin, aren't they. What I can say is that the mood in Chinese family homes goes up and down just like the tone does in British homes. They have been scared, openly so. Now they're less scared - much, much less scared. They're also not reporting illnesses anymore, as they used to in the spring. It's not interfering with their ability to access our services. If Covid was in their homes and frightening the community, I'd know. When the pandemic reached Europe, they were already relaxing as they perceived themselves as largely out of danger at that point. There were many kind offers of help! I see what's happening in the major cities, mainly. But I really don't think they're having a secret epidemic in these areas. My colleagues would know. We work with parents and children - not a combination that lie well as they rarely want to be discreet at the same moment! Whatever they have done has worked pretty well for now.

I agree with you @Dawnlassie. If we keep shutting everything down there will eventually be nothing left to reopen. I also think we need to remember that, no matter how much testing goes into a vaccine/drug, there will always be people who have an adverse reaction.

The basics can help stop the spread so fewer people will be infected and it buys us time until better treatments or a vaccine becomes available.

And the vast majority of people are doing the basics.

The problem is that we can’t actually stop this without cutting off all social contact, which isn’t possible for many reasons.

This isn’t ‘over’ until there’s a decent vaccine and a majority have been given it. That may be many years. In the meantime, we can do all the SD and hand washing we like, but it will spread anyway.

Our own actions are only so effective. Significant progress will only come with scientific developments (vaccines, treatments, testing).

@hyperfish101

I think your fuck off comment was aimed at me.

Maybe 'some' people should stay at home and protect themselves then.

We so did not! When SARS-CoV-1 developed there were no massive lockdowns and nobody paid very much attention to it at all. In all cases of outbreaks, SARS-CoV-1 has been largely self-limiting and nobody knows why. In the end, it appears it largely died out - quite possibly because it isn't a very efficient virus due to the fact it's kill rate is relatively

This is plain wrong as far as I can tell.

"Why did the original SARS epidemic come to end? Well, SARS-CoV-1 did not burn itself out. Rather, the outbreak was largely brought under control by simple public health measures. Testing people with symptoms (fever and respiratory problems), isolating and quarantining suspected cases, and restricting travel all had an effect."

The reason why covid 19 is harder is that you are infectious for a period when you are not ill.

++++++++

The SARS epidemic ran from 2002 to 2004 with an average mortality rate of 9.5 % rising to 55% in the over 65s.

But because of its relatively low transmission rate and high mortality it burned itself out. Infection rates were low and masks were worn in Asia but not the West. No vaccine was ever developed for SARS.

Anyway if you disagree or don't believe me you can read all this on Wikipedia.

@notevenat20

As long as your kids are going into school, your going into hundreds of families houses. Just not literally

That seems not to be the case. Adult to child to adult transmission appears much lower than adult to adult transmission.

Anything to do with the vast majority of children and young people not being allowed into schools for a while? And for a lot of time per day, not being 'out' anywhere else. Why is it that we seem content to believe that they are a piffling risk if they're under A-level age, but look at the university age bracket and it suddenly becomes the highest and fastest group of spreading ability on the graphs and stats? On the one side - responsibility within our power as you suggest. On the other though, there's a bigger duty of care in terms of environment and basic trust in the powers that be that a lot of people are not just uncomfortable, but increasingly anxious about. We probably already know that a lot depends on this side having to be up to the job also.

Anything to do with the vast majority of children and young people not being allowed into schools for a while?

I don’t think so although to be fair, the science is definitely not settled on the question of transmission from child to adult yet. Schools have been open for varying amounts of time around the world. Scientists are not just looking at the UK.

The only way was to have done what Sweden did. Take sensible precautions but recognise we will keep having waves unless heard immunity grows and the virus weakens.

Their deaths have hugely reduced, economy still going and although they are too modest have had the last laugh on this

Many of the deaths were in essence deaths that were brought forward a few months ie elderly and infirm. We will now see a load of CV deaths recorded this winter instead of winter flu etc

Even with a vaccine, if the ridiculous anti Vaxers get any traction it will limit effectiveness although in MHO their children should be required to be vaccinated fully before attending school. Have already seen the awful impact of non vaccinated children in themselves and others when at school and university getting awful childhood illnesses

@BooseysMom

but you do know that Covid-19 is actually SARS-CoV-2. In other words - both are SARS!

So why is it called Covid-19 then?...why not call it SARS-Cov-2?!

One thing I did read or hear about was the difference between SARS and Covid was that with SARS there wasn't a percentage of the population walking around asymptomatic. If you had SARS you knew about it! I can't remember where I read or heard this as there are so many experts out there. And anyway if they are the same thing why don't they behave the same way?

Oh for goodness sake, look it up! It is a fact that both are SARS. The resulting respiratory condition (the "flu-like symptoms") is described as Covid-19. I did not say they are the same thing - I said they are both coronaviruses, and they are. These are demonstrable facts that any idiot can google! Arguing that because they act differently means they aren't the same thing is like saying that white people aren't human beings because they don't have black/dark skin like all their ancestors did. Things evolve.

@Marieg10

The only way was to have done what Sweden did. Take sensible precautions but recognise we will keep having waves unless heard immunity grows and the virus weakens.

Their deaths have hugely reduced, economy still going and although they are too modest have had the last laugh on this

Many of the deaths were in essence deaths that were brought forward a few months ie elderly and infirm. We will now see a load of CV deaths recorded this winter instead of winter flu etc

Even with a vaccine, if the ridiculous anti Vaxers get any traction it will limit effectiveness although in MHO their children should be required to be vaccinated fully before attending school. Have already seen the awful impact of non vaccinated children in themselves and others when at school and university getting awful childhood illnesses

But this will only work as a strategy if Brits can be trusted to use common sense. I'm not saying every Swede does but theres not the same rebelliousness and selfishness there and maybe a bit more sense. It's also a lot less densely populated.

@Marieg10

The only way was to have done what Sweden did. Take sensible precautions but recognise we will keep having waves unless heard immunity grows and the virus weakens.

Their deaths have hugely reduced, economy still going and although they are too modest have had the last laugh on this

Many of the deaths were in essence deaths that were brought forward a few months ie elderly and infirm. We will now see a load of CV deaths recorded this winter instead of winter flu etc

Even with a vaccine, if the ridiculous anti Vaxers get any traction it will limit effectiveness although in MHO their children should be required to be vaccinated fully before attending school. Have already seen the awful impact of non vaccinated children in themselves and others when at school and university getting awful childhood illnesses

Sweden isn't turning out to be the poster boy country people think it is. Deaths are now close to the UK's. Their neighbours, Norway and Finland have done a lot better than Sweden.

Deaths per 100 million population, they are not very far behind us now

UK 612
Sweden 578
France 473
Denmark 109
Finland 61
Norway 49

Do we need to start looking at different stats than just the number of positive cases? Especially if it's true that the virus has changed to be more easily spread but generally less dangerous.

So how many deaths?
How many serious illnesses or hospitalised cases?
How many have serious long term complications (and are these in greater numbers than say if you have had pneumonia - that often leaves longer term damage and it often takes months to be fully fit, took me a year) that will reduce quality of life, beyond a year or so?
Are we able to treat it more effectively and thereby reducing the cases of serious illness or fatality?

We test more so we get more positive cases.
We now test people before they get the hospital stage which we couldn't do in March/April.

So is it that it's now more common to get but less dangerous to have?

It's clear we cannot live like this for ever. We cannot continually live isolated and without close contact with other people. After 6 months people are already fighting against additional restrictions, even those who were most strict at the start. Some things are easier to deal with - masks, social distancing in shops, increased hygiene, etc - but some are just not sustainable long term - not being able to hug your parents/grandparents, boyfriend and girlfriends not being able to be within 2m of one another, etc.

Life under restrictions simply isn't sustainable long term.

And I'm coming from a point of being clinically vulnerable and someone who was really strict about the rules from March. But losing three close family members (non Covid deaths) throughout this and not being able to mourn properly with family, missed one of events ( I have a dd who has turned 18, missed exams, had horrendous a level results experience, missed end of school rites, and due to go away to university under rubbish circumstances) has made me really question some things and whether we can really go in like this for much longer.

Do we need to start looking at different stats than just the number of positive cases?

Hospital admissions are rising in our area and ICU bed occupancy is also rising over the past couple of weeks. Given the time delay between catching covid, then hospitalisation, then death, it's logical that we're going to start seeing death numbers rise again in a week or two.