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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

979 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 06/09/2020 22:04

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
60
Timeforanotherusername · 07/09/2020 20:51

@NeurotrashWarrior

*Some teachers in specialist schools have them too Any teacher on thread who has tried them ?*

Sore point; in primary we aren't using masks but I'd really like to use these. It would be perfect.

The NHS contracted SALT were supposed to be wearing ppe; we work for far longer and closer than they do.

It does seem a good idea! My 5 year old had a couple of weeks of SALT before lockdown. I am hoping it starts up again soon. Our school have said masks for 1:1 and I was wondering how this would work. I fully support masks but wonder how they would manage this when they reorder his sounds (not describing it well). But surely how a sound is formed is important and that is not easy with a mask. Clear masks would certainly make a difference.
EducatingArti · 07/09/2020 20:52

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/police-were-called-large-gathering-18890742

Anrcdata to show that Trafford is a mixed borough and not all middle class leafy suburbs!

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2020 20:58

The rise in hospitalisations is from a very low base, but concerning

stuart mcdonald@ActuaryByDay

It is increasingly clear that COVID-19 hospital admissions are rising again in England (shown) and the UK overall.

Estimated from admissions data “R” has now been above 1.0 for two weeks.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2020 21:01

"Clear masks would certainly make a difference"

Well as our restaurants have had at least 1 each for several weeks and a few teachers here also have them, I'd hope UK schools would buy a few as well

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TheSunIsStillShining · 07/09/2020 21:24

One reason for lower death rates is that we know more about the virus. It is now known that even though presenting respiratory symptoms blood clotting is a main issue that needs to be preemptively treated. Doctors also know that even with high oxygen saturation the actual blood oxygen levels can be quite low as this virus makes the cells create a jelly like substance in the lungs.
Could only find the article in non-english, so not linking it.

AnyFucker · 07/09/2020 21:29

Get Van-Dam back on the telly box. People liked him. They might listen.

Piggywaspushed · 07/09/2020 21:43

Thanks for thinking of me jacob. That's kind of you to let me know!

boys3 · 07/09/2020 21:46

a bit of bedtime reading; recent report from the Institute of Government

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/decision-making-crisis-coronavirus

not convinced the government has learned any lessons, or would apply them if it had.

So possibly quite depressing reading, however the IoG are generally reasonably sensible people, evidenced by welcome observations such as

Before it decides what to do, the government must first think about the ‘why’. What problem is it trying to solve or avoid? In too many cases throughout this pandemic, particularly when under pressure, it has failed to do this. Instead it made announcements without thinking through the consequences or the purpose

SansaSnark · 07/09/2020 22:04

Is there any proof of a lower death rate, really? In April, especially, so many people weren't getting tested, even if they were pretty unwell, let alone those with mild symptoms/asymptomatic. It's very likely in the first peak there were tens of thousands of new cases each day, but only a small proportion were being detected.

Whereas now we are detecting the majority, or at least a much larger proportion of cases.

Demographic factors are also possibly relevant- if most people getting ill right now are under 30, a much lower death rate makes sense.

There's also a pretty long lag on deaths-probably longer now, as we are catching cases earlier.

Spain's cases started to spike, early-mid July. Even into the first week of August, they had a 7 day rolling average daily death number under 10. Last week, that rolling average was over 30, and today it is 60 (admittedly there did seem to be an unusually large number of deaths on the 4th). Obviously, in real terms, these numbers are low, but the rise is concerning (to me).

But if we followed that pattern, we probably wouldn't see changes in death numbers until October at least.

itsgettingweird · 07/09/2020 22:53

@AnyFucker

Get Van-Dam back on the telly box. People liked him. They might listen.
Agree. People respect him because he spoke out about everyone having to follow the rules and them applying to everyone!
Augustbreeze · 07/09/2020 22:56

Yes he could provide the antidote to Dominic Cummings and his effect!

BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2020 23:05

Van-Tam has the expertise and gives his genuine views,
rather than mouthing the government line - or any other non-scientific line

It helps that he goes for his eye tests the same way the rest of us do

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BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2020 23:11

Significant series of screwups in care home testing

Randox tests didn't meet safety standards and had to be stopped
Results taking 7 days, or sometimes staff can't even get tests
At least one documented case of this delay leading to a staff member infecting a resident
General chaos

Now the government have moved target for weekly staff tests back to 7 September (today) - so let's see if this happens

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/07/uk-government-apologises-for-care-home-covid-testing-delays

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BigChocFrenzy · 07/09/2020 23:14

Care home testing needs to be organised properly before the cold weather and the likely spread of more infections from younger people

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Oldbagface · 07/09/2020 23:31

When Van Tam is concerned we all should be. I trust his judgment implicitly.

Anyone else feel the creep of exponential growth?

CoffeeandCroissant · 07/09/2020 23:56

@AnyFucker

Get Van-Dam back on the telly box. People liked him. They might listen.
I was hoping his middle name was Claude, but apparently it's Stafford. Mildly disappointed.
BigChocFrenzy · 08/09/2020 00:42

He's Van-TAM
Jonathan Stafford Nguyen Van-Tam

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IceCreamSummer20 · 08/09/2020 00:52

I think the growth will be slower, exponential but much slower, as the rate is not doubling every few days like back in March. However as we have seen, it is local areas that will take off, and if we don’t control that it will spread.

JacobReesMogadishu · 08/09/2020 06:16

Locally the Infection rate seems to be doubling every week and has been for at least 3 weeks Now. Yes, the numbers are small but if that growth continues in a few weeks it won’t be so small.

AnyFucker · 08/09/2020 06:51

^He's Van-TAM
Jonathan Stafford NguyenVan-Tam^

Yes, we know Smile

herecomesthsun · 08/09/2020 07:00

Increasing exponentially according to SAGE member.

SaskiaRembrandt · 08/09/2020 07:05

@AnyFucker

Get Van-Dam back on the telly box. People liked him. They might listen.
Agreed!
littleowl1 · 08/09/2020 07:20

For anyone interested in the change week-over-week in the number of cases in their local council, I have compiled a table and attached it to this post. The data is as of 2 Sept as it takes 5-6 days for tests to be reported in the data at council level.

For anyone who would like to keep an eye on the number of cases in their area, I compile and send a daily email. You can sign up here: www.covidmessenger.com

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17
HarveySchlumpfenburger · 08/09/2020 07:49

@IceCreamSummer20

I think the growth will be slower, exponential but much slower, as the rate is not doubling every few days like back in March. However as we have seen, it is local areas that will take off, and if we don’t control that it will spread.
I don't think it would take a huge amount to get us back to a doubling time of 3/4 days. It does require people to be a bit careful about their social interactions. With the death rate lag that might be hard to do right now.
IceCreamSummer20 · 08/09/2020 08:44

Care home testing needs to be organised properly before the cold weather and the likely spread of more infections from younger people absolutely!