Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

ONS Infection Pilot, 30 Aug - 5 Sept Just released

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/11september2020

•	An estimated 39,700 people (95% credible interval: 29,300 to 52,700) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) during the most recent week, from 30 August to 5 September 2020, 
	<span class="italic">equating to around 1 in 1,400 people</span> (95% credible interval: 1 in 1,900 to 1 in 1,000).

•	<span class="italic">The most recent modelled estimate suggests the number of infections has increased in recent weeks.</span>

•	In recent weeks, there has been <span class="italic">an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 aged 17 to 24 years and 25 to 34 years</span>
	whereas <span class="italic">the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 aged 50 years and over appears to be stable or declining.</span>

•	During the most recent week (30 August to 5 September 2020), we estimate there were around 0.58 (95% credible interval: 0.38 to 0.84) new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day in the community population <span class="italic">in England,</span> 
	<span class="italic">equating to around 3,200 new cases per day</span> (95% credible interval: 2,000 to 4,600).

•	<span class="italic">Evidence suggests that the incidence rate for England has increased in recent weeks.</span>

•	During the most recent week (30 August to 5 September 2020), we estimate that <span class="italic">1,200 people in Wales had COVID-19</span> (95% credible interval: 300 to 2,800), 
	which is <span class="italic">around 1 in 2,600 people</span> (95 % credible interval: 1 in 10,900 to 1 in 1,100).

@Humphriescushion

Hosptials near me in France are under pressure and intensive care is full. Dont fall into the trap ( easy I know) of thinking this wont transfer into admissions.

Absolutely our area our house managers are saying to similiar.

@herecomesthsun

"SARs were highest when the primary case was a child"

Does this mean that children appeared to be MORE contagious than adults?

... That's within a household, not necessarily outside - remember this study dataset is before lockdown, SD & masks

Probably a sick child at home is cuddled and kept company all the time
Not the same as school

That’s interesting @BigChocFrenzy what do you take from it? Also should it be older child in last paragraph (just trying to get my head around it).

Re testing, just seen tests processed jumped to 225000, pretty sure it’s been about 175000 forever.

here I think it suggests that children maybe spread more in a household.

Which makes sense. If myself or DH have symptoms we will try and distance ourself from rest of household.

Kids would be getting comforted and cuddled all the time.

Probably a sick child at home is cuddled and kept company all the time
Not the same as school

Although, in some settings there's lots of physical contact. We do cuddle our pupils, especially the ones who have very particular needs and can become very unsettled easily.

"serial intervals were longer if the household contact was a child or an older adult."

Understandable - if someone is sick, the household would try to keep away children and the more vulnerable older adults

Cant see anyone here advocating for a national lockdown unless the NHS starts to be overwhelmed again and in more areas. Pub closures and foreign holiday bans should come before that.

Once infection is widespread in the community it comes in with the patients and sometimes the staff. Staff are not being tested, patients can test negative when they are positive if asymptomatic and the test is not at the critical time. There is little social distancing in a hospital ward and it would be difficult to keep masks on patients in their sleep.

[Updated data for September 11] Positive rate of COVID-19 tests by age group in France.
mobile.twitter.com/redouad/status/1304472307478523905

[Updated data for September 11] New COVID-19 hospitalizations in France (y-axis is on a log scale).

2,357 people were hospitalized in the last 7 days (up from 1,628 the preceding week).
mobile.twitter.com/redouad/status/1304468526829309953

@Timeforanotherusername

here I think it suggests that children maybe spread more in a household.

Which makes sense. If myself or DH have symptoms we will try and distance ourself from rest of household.

Kids would be getting comforted and cuddled all the time.

Agree, plus kids less likely to exhibit fingers or actually articulate that they don’t feel well - sometimes they’re just grumpy I find!

Da gets argumentative, irritable, grumpy and behaves terribly when he has a fever until I think to check his temp and give calpol. Then he adopts the poorly persona.

Has anyone seen the latest GM figures as I can't seem to find them?

I'm trying to find out how many schools in England have had a bubble closure this week, PHE weekly surveillance report says 23 'outbreaks' in educational settings, but I know of about 20 schools in Leicestershire that have closed to a yeargroup/bubble this week, so how do they report this?

It's going to be hard to follow. Probably local PHE reports? Apparently a whole primary in Middlesbrough has closed for two weeks.

England hospital admissions rose sharply to 136

Clear rising trend for several days now, although from a low base and absolute figures not yet concerning, the rate of increase is
If more elderly people are being infected, this will show up a week or so later in the death figures.

Chart from John R @john_actuary

"The UK government just updated its COVID-19 testing figures with new data on the number of PCR tests performed between 2 and 10 September.

This new data shows that the positive rate has now increased to 1.3%, a proportion last observed on 8 June."
Source: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&year=latest&time=2020-06-02..latest&country=~GBR&region=World&positiveTestRate=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_deaths&pickerSort=desc

mobile.twitter.com/redouad/status/1304451681401401344

@CoffeeandCroissant

The positive test rate has increased largely because a lot of testing capacity has been moved to areas that have high numbers of cases and transmission rates.

So there are fewer tests being carried out in areas with low virus incidence, which is artificially increasing the positivity rate.

The UK is still well under the 3% limit that the WHO give, but it is the rapid rise that is concerning:
Positivity has risen from 0.6% to 1.3% in a comparatively short time

So how long to go from 1.3 to 3% ... hopefully most people will comply with the Power of 6, so infections level off again

Testing should always be targeted
If that was not happening as much before, it was a mistake

No country, except possibly minnows like Iceland, can test everybody who wants to be tested
< ignores world -beating moonshine moonshot >
So the available tests should have been targeted where they are most needed

@BigChocFrenzy

Testing should always be targeted If that was not happening as much before, it was a mistake

but testing also needs to reflect school and workplace guidelines. that's where things are amiss at the moment or at least it feels like it.

Regional hospital admissions, with NW the clear leader, tripled since 26 Aug
(chart john R @john_actuary)
Absolute values still low, but rising rapidly

@FatGirlShrinking - the surveillance report only includes outbreaks, which are defined as schools with 2 or more cases needing additional checks. Any single case leads to isolating contacts though anyway; depending on who it is and the distancing at that particular school, that could be few or many people. That's why there is a discrepancy in figures and hundreds of schools will be in the position of having some isolating because we are back to thousands of positive tests every day. If another from a school with one case then tests positive, they would go onto the outbreak list.

DHSC REACT survey (pillar 4)

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/largest-testing-programme-for-coronavirus-reinforces-need-for-vigilance

. > 300,000 volunteers tested across England 24 July - 7 September

. Prevalence doubled every 7.7 days

. Reproduction number R was estimated to be 1.7

Prevalence of infection was highest in Yorkshire and the Humber and the North West at 0.17% followed by 0.16% in the North East.
There were no significant differences between the prevalence of infection for key workers and non-key workers.

Well now we can understand why the Power of 6 was rushed in

@BigChocFrenzy

The issue is that demand for testing has shot up since the schools went back. A few weeks ago there was capacity everywhere for everyone who wanted one- that is not the case now so capacity has has to be focused on the high risk areas.

That is why the positivity rate has increased- there is no evidence that this would have happened otherwise.