Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

GM rates are rising rapidly. I'm hunkering down for the foreseeable even once we are out of isolation.

I suppose what happens in GM schools over the next month or so will provide some excellent data on infection (or lack thereof?) In schools...

@Bercows
Also in Gm. Looks pretty grim doesn’t it.

I find these daily updates on Reddit (CoronavirusUK) very helpful.

@whatsnext2

I don't think people are "avoiding vaccines" not on this thread anyway. Just saying it's really important that the full trial process is completed which, in places like China and Russia, it hasn't been.

I would definitely have the vaccine, but only when it has been through the approval process here in Germany,
which would be tast-tracked,
but would only start once all the testing phases have been completely properly

Cases in my area creeping up. 12 past week compared to 8 week before and 7 and 8 weeks before that.
Ds college emailed and have straight into masks in public spaces from next week especially because of rise in 17-21yo.
Ds is exempt but did also say "but I'm 16" and was literally only 16 3 weeks ago!

Sorry if this has been linked before but in the Independent Sage "Preliminary consultation document to inform an updated Independent SAGE schools report" there's a diagram with suggested measures to be introduced depending on local prevalence. They suggest max 15 class sizes and mask wearing in secondary once the level gets to 10-50 cases per 100k.

Seems to me that basically no schools are implementing this (in the state sector anyway) and lots of the country is in that 10-50 range. Over 50 they recommend masks for primary school children too as well as maximum 15 class size, staggered breaks etc.

www.independentsage.org/preliminary-consultation-document-to-inform-an-updated-independent-sage-schools-report/

I'm still struggling with at what level I'll take my kids out.

I do wish they'd hurry up and do the full report - the children are all back now!

@IloveJKRowling

Sorry if this has been linked before but in the Independent Sage "Preliminary consultation document to inform an updated Independent SAGE schools report" there's a diagram with suggested measures to be introduced depending on local prevalence. They suggest max 15 class sizes and mask wearing in secondary once the level gets to 10-50 cases per 100k.

Seems to me that basically no schools are implementing this (in the state sector anyway) and lots of the country is in that 10-50 range. Over 50 they recommend masks for primary school children too as well as maximum 15 class size, staggered breaks etc.

www.independentsage.org/preliminary-consultation-document-to-inform-an-updated-independent-sage-schools-report/

I'm still struggling with at what level I'll take my kids out.

I do wish they'd hurry up and do the full report - the children are all back now!

I would take mine out potentially if they had to wear masks all day.

They are 8 & 5 and I feel it would be a totally inappropriate measure.

But otherwise they will stay in school for as long as they can.

It's certainly a tough decision @IloveJKRowling. I'm in GM and have taken mine out. Had to deregister.

I don't get much choice to take them out being a teacher!

JK I won’t take them out but hopefully they can stay learning / and open

@IloveJKRowling but why would schools be implementing that? It’s not government guidance and it’s Independent Sage rather than actual Sage.

That’s not to say it’s not appropriate action, but surely it’s not a surprise that schools aren’t doing it when they haven’t been instructed to do so.

My kids definitely don't mind wearing masks for long periods, the older one says it would make her feel safer but she won't unless others are too.

Yes I know it's not government advice, I just tend to look at what Independent Sage says because they're independent and more transparent.

It's not just them that's saying maximum 15 per class, I think that's pretty much the agreed scientific consensus on safe size for school reopening, and obviously it's something the government has decided not to fund so it is what it is.

I suppose at the rate of illnesses in the schools, they'll be off sooner or later themselves having caught something and then they'll be isolating for their own or their siblings illness (and if we can't get a test it might be for a while). The little one is almost continuously ill in winter anyway, at some point I might need to take a decision to take her out in order to try and get a bit more schooling in for the older (more robust) one. Otherwise the older one might start to feel like a yo-yo with the days out waiting for her sister's coronavirus tests...

And my comment about them not taking these actions was more in relation to my thinking - if they're not adopting best practice risk mitigation measures at the appropriate level (which they're not and they won't) at what point do I take my kids out?

It's one thing I've found a bit frustrating about Indie Sage, they're constantly talking about what the science says about what's best. But the government has clearly decided not to do what's best, so what do parents do given the REAL situation in schools. Particularly vulnerable parents.

I think at some point some vulnerable staff will walk...

I can't see up-to-date figures on schools, but 3 days ago there were cases at 62 schools, that's 0.19% of the 32770 schools.

The following us not data, but musings on some figures... It's one thing that's always annoyed me in the surveillance reports; they log any respiratory outbreak by type, but then never update the chart if any of them test negative for Covid. So the total numbers can't be relied on. Something else went the other way and only counted any care home once, even though obviously there has been time for several.potentially over the course of what's now 6 months, and surely it matters to know if they all made themselves safe after an outbreak or not, to look for patterns.

I think you need to be wary about Independent Sage.

Some of the claims they have made do not really stand up to scrutiny.

This last page or two feel like a departure from the usual non speculative factual oasis that these threads have been throughout.

Independent Sage has a political agenda of its own. They all do.

"I can't see up-to-date figures on schools, but 3 days ago there were cases at 62 schools, that's 0.19% of the 32770 schools."

There are apparently 40 schools affected by isolating classes and year groups in greater Manchester alone. And you do have to wonder how many more there might be if getting tests for kids wasn't so hard and how many asymptomatic cases might be spreading undetected until a parent teacher pupil gets infected and develops symptoms....

There are over 400 schools with cases I think now.
The last independent SAGE was chaired by Alice Roberts.
I rate them as much more likely to be unbiased as scientists.

I've seen them referred to as "cosplay" SAGE which did make me snort

I don't object to alternative scientific groups setting up and issuing their take on these matters, debate is good. However using SAGE in their name is misleading at best and independent is also problematic as they don't appear to be.

@BwanaMakubwa

This last page or two feel like a departure from the usual non speculative factual oasis that these threads have been throughout.

Independent Sage has a political agenda of its own. They all do.

agreed

@walksen

"I can't see up-to-date figures on schools, but 3 days ago there were cases at 62 schools, that's 0.19% of the 32770 schools."

There are apparently 40 schools affected by isolating classes and year groups in greater Manchester alone. And you do have to wonder how many more there might be if getting tests for kids wasn't so hard and how many asymptomatic cases might be spreading undetected until a parent teacher pupil gets infected and develops symptoms....

There are at least 2 walk-in centres I know of in Trafford alone that don't require appointments to get tested.

I'm in GM and cannot get a test. I've been trying since Monday. There might be walk in appointments but Trafford is some distance away so how am I supposed to get there?