Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Here we go:

Schools with Covid outbreaks in Greater Manchester now tops 50 www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/number-schools-coronavirus-outbreaks-greater-18914742

There were 501 schools affected earlier today. That is now over 1.5% of schools then (thank you for that number)

@herecomesthsun can we have a link to your source please? Thanks

www.boycottunsafeschools.co.uk/reported-covid-19-cases/school-cases-after-12-8-20/

From Twitter, 478 UK Schools hit by Coronavirus:

• 279 England
• 106 Scotland
• 64 N. Ireland
• 29 Wales
• 431 pupils infected
• 106 teachers
• 31 schools with multiple infections

Source: A database compiling of newspaper reports, school websites and NHS updates.

"There were 501 schools affected earlier today. That is now over 1.5% of schools then (thank you for that number)"

Should we broadly expect the percentage of schools affected to broadly match community test positivity rates (adjusted for age profile of people in them)?

That number is going up so quickly!

Another update when I reload the feeds

522 UK Schools infected with CV19. 42 of them with multiple infections.

31 schools with multiple infections

That is incredibly low

"31 schools with multiple infections

That is incredibly low"

True but it would probably be higher if people were tested to establish the scale of the infection instead of being sent home to self isolate.

The number may increase if others go on to develop symptoms and "outbreaks" are based on cases over a 2 week period.

That's an excellent point about expecting case after to match population as a whole.

My town has had 12 cases this week.

2 have been school staff (different schools).

So percentage statistically is low currently.

And if 31 is multiple infections compared to 522 then the others could may well be community infections which happen to have affected a teacher or pupil.

Interesting to see 80% (approx) infections were pupils and not teachers. I'd be interested in an age breakdown for the pupils.

True but it would probably be higher if people were tested to establish the scale of the infection instead of being sent home to self isolate.

I don’t know how much higher but my goodness we could do with this data. Israel school with high infections had low cases between close contacts.

@walksen

"31 schools with multiple infections

That is incredibly low"

True but it would probably be higher if people were tested to establish the scale of the infection instead of being sent home to self isolate.

The number may increase if others go on to develop symptoms and "outbreaks" are based on cases over a 2 week period.

Many have only been at school for two days, plus many can't get a test for love nor money.

Speaking to someone I know today and in her place of work (not a school) 3 people with no symptoms have had positive tests this week. If they hadn't been asked to take tests they wouldn't have known.

I am not someone who has regularly been contributing to this thread but I have appreciated very much those who do so.

I do agree with app that it seems to be moving towards anecdote and speculation rather than data. I’d love it if this could remain data focussed.

I think I'm a bit gung ho about vaccinations. I saw they were looking for older volunteers and was all set to go but my DD got really upset and begged me not to. I promised her I wouldn't as she was so upset but I feel a bit bad as they will never get vaccines approved if they can't get volunteers.

I feel a bit stuck. I'm 67 by the way.

Many have only been at school for two days, plus many can't get a test for love nor money.

Scottish schools have been back since 12th August so we’ll over 14 day incubation period.

We now have a contact tracing app in Scotland, using the Google and Apple software, rather than NHSX.

@SellFridges

I am not someone who has regularly been contributing to this thread but I have appreciated very much those who do so.

I do agree with app that it seems to be moving towards anecdote and speculation rather than data. I’d love it if this could remain data focussed.

Agreed. 👍

May have missed this further up so sorry for repeat if so
What are the stats looking like for Scotland schools as they’ve been back nearly 4 weeks now haven’t they? Hoping it may reflect what we will see in a week so at least we’ve an idea

Test-and-trace will fail without rise in sick pay, says TUC
Two-fifths of workers will be unable to pay bills if they have to self-isolate for two weeks

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/10/test-and-trace-will-fail-without-rise-in-sick-pay-says-tuc

This has always been a weak link in the system:
all the people who aren't privileged to receive full pay when sick or when they have to isolate
It is a reasonable decision to prioritise keeping the family fed and housed over possibly spreading infection

Either the government should pass a law requiring that employers have to pay in full those staff who have to isolate,
or fund it centrally - it would cost a tiny % of that damn moonshot, but would be of more practical use.

Given that this is a data thread, can we just be crystal clear please in agreement that one case in a school with no onward transmission is not by any definition an outbreak. Anyone who thinks it is can join the "422/588/ however many schools are affected" group, but shouldn't be posting on a thread about facts and data as though that figure relates to transmission in schools.

Anyone with a valid data link about multiple cases in specific schools where transmission is even a possibility, is very welcome to supply their info for discussion, because everyone else has an interest in facts, causes and real risks.

Some people are attracted by the idea of testing absolutely everyone, but it's not feasible

A good analysis of why Operation Moonshot would be a really bad £100 bn idea:

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1304016643174133760.html

What is the current PHE definition of an outbreak ?
Is it still 2 cases anywhere, or has that been updates ?

updated

The normal definition is the occurrence of more cases of disease than would be expected within a specific place or group of people over a given period of time.

PHE is still 2 or more, as far as I'm aware. I can't see any recent changes to that.

My old primary was on that website. As far as I am aware there was a singular case from a returning holiday maker (jungle drums rather than knownfor certain). Case was in 1st days of reopening and i am unaware of further cases 4 weeks on.

My high school is the same.