Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Re: the negative tests. My sister’s an ICU nurse. I don’t have numbers for how often it happens, but she said it isn’t unusual for some of their covid patients to have multiple negative tests before they get a positive (often from a sample lower down the respiratory tract once they’ve been intubated). I think some of their patients have had 5/6 negatives.

Sometimes it is just a case of assuming the patient that looks exactly like all the other covid patients you have had is a covid patient. I can see how it could end up on the death certificate of someone with multiple negatives, but I wouldn’t assume malice or some attempt to fiddle the figures on the doctors part.

Useful summary here fun the BBC on rising cases and how to interpret BBC News - Coronavirus: Five reasons why rise in cases is not all it seems
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54064347

Makes good points, but the repeated stories of people not being able to get tests still concern me. If you can't get a test it is going to be much too tempting to dismiss minor symptoms rather than isolate your household for 10/14 days. So I fear it may be spreading faster than we realise right now.

I doubt they'll closer gyms and pools tbh. I've not seen any reports of those being a main form of transmission. I think they'll maybe go for pubs in the watchlist areas. Tbh, that's what I think they should do. One of the reasons the young are socializing more is that pubs are open and the idea of only going inside a pub to sit at a table with members of your own household, (or one other household if you sit 2m away from them!) is just so far from the reality of how people use pubs I think they're quite confused and think that can't be meant to be taken seriously, so go to the pubs they know in the way they've always gone to then to meet people and socialize.

Cases in France have been going through the roof as noted.
It took about 4 weeks before the increase cases affected other indicators such as admissions - started with the younger people like the uk. Now admissions are shocking - 2000 in a week ( more than double from a few weeks ago). i am in a red zone and hosptials under pressure. This rise has not surprised me, it has been very busy here with holidaymakers and little if any social distancing in bars especially. Masks are worn and the main measure is to wear masks outside now in busy areas and in work.
I went back and checked figures for when we largely came out lockdown to compare.
Cases 456 - though think testing may have been much more limted then)
New Admissions - 523 ( one day)
New intensive care - 82 ( one day)
Total in hosptial 22824
Total intensive care 2712

Today cases - 6500
New admissions 2000 in a week - up signiicantly from a few weeks ago where it was around 1000
New in intensive care 588 ( one week)
Total in hospital - 6000
So i calmed myself by noting that the figures are still a lot less than when the governement decided we could come largely out of lockdown. Interesting to note that France has many many more in hosptial and this appeared to be the case throughout the crisis.

Testing has been increased massively, 150,000 often per day. This is people tested not tests processed.
Paris hosptials now have a test that gives results in 30 minutes - so some good news.
Anecdotally most people seem quite calm and blaise, the opinion is we cant close the economy again , we have to get on with it! I am back to tracking figures to calm my anxiety.

It will be a disgrace if gyms close before pubs! People need to become healthier and exercise is so important for physical and mental health. (I know people can exercise at home etc). The gym I go to has implemented 2m social distancing throughout and has had no identified cases of transmission. I did a class the other day and there was no one else nearer than at least 4 m as the class was quiet.

Humphries what’s it like for schools in France? Are many closing - year groups or smaller

I don't disagree. Pubs and cafes should close well before gyms and pools where the users will socially distance and numbers can be more easily controlled but that's not what the statement said, and knowing how useless this government is, we won't know until about 11.55 pm before it's introduced from midnight.🤦‍♀️

@ marsha I dont know a huge amount about the schools sorry, but here is some info.

www.bfmtv.com/politique/coronavirus-28-etablissements-scolaires-et-262-classes-fermes-en-france-ce-lundi-a-cause-de-l-epidemie_AV-202009070338.html

@Firefliess I agree gyms and pools should not close. I watched an interview on CNBC a couple of weeks ago with the CEO of Planet Fitness (huge US gym chain) and he was asked about the impact of Covid on the gym reopenings - he said that based on differing state rules they had some of their gyms open since May and in that time 45 million workouts had been logged, with only 137 positive cases notified to staff and no known instances of gym transmission. I found that really interesting because of the number of workouts and the high prevalence of Covid in the US.

Morning all. Still no tests available where I am in the NW.
Reading other threads on the new guidelines does not give me much hope that they will be effective. Some are saying it's aimed at students. If they can't have house parties they'll just stick to bars and pubs.
Ds had a bad night coughing and crying in pain. My head has not stopped. This is just like what I had in March. The only place we could have picked this up is school because that's the only place ds has been and I haven't been anywhere either except one shop wearing a mask and with sanitiser and it was quiet enough to be able to distance. A child in his class was full of snot so thanks for that parent who is a GP ffs.

Keep trying with tests. They can update at half hour intervals. On Sunday morning it was telling me my nearest available places were Leicester and Barrow in Furness which are 70+ miles away. By just past 9:00 am there were plenty at my local "pop-up".
If the website is playing up you could try phoning 119 . Some people have just turned up at a local facility where they actually had plenty of local capacity and have been happy to sort them out on site.

I don't drive so it needs to be a postal test. I could have walked 10 miles to a walk in place in one of the dodgiest places in my nearest city but I'm simply not up to a 20 mile walk and neither are dc.

Sounds like they are going to crack down on pubs - Matt Hancock has just announced that it's to be made compulsory for venues to record contact details. That's not a big change in itself but I think a clear nod to the direction they're looking at

@Pacif1cDogwood

Re death certificates: They are meant to list what killed the person, not their most serious illness. I sometimes struggle with that: if somebody has a long a slow decline, say, from motoneuron disease, receiving palliative care and everybody knows they are dying, but then they die from being pushed out of the window ie something unrelated, the cause of death would be '1ahead trauma 1b Assault' or whatever with MND mentioned as No 2.

Absolutely.

There was a long discussion about this on thread 8 in May, regarding dementia and the increased risk, as it was linked to increased risk with Covid.

Although things don't always follow, my mother who died in February after having cancer for many years then developing heart failure and pneumonia, had the cancer listed as COD.

Just been listening to More or Less who recommended this site for calculating your individual risk of dying from Covid if you catch it. alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/

Just tried it and it's rather good. First calculates your "Covid age" by deducting 5 years for being female and adding various amounts of years on for various health conditions and ethnicities. Then there are tables at the bottom that turn your Covid age into a risk of dying per 1,000 if you catch it.

Headlines: Age is the overwhelming risk factor, so children with even serious health issues are mostly still lower risk than their parents. Non white ethnicity and obesity each add around 5-7 years to your Covid age (so putting women who are BAME or obese at about the same risk as a healthy white man of the same age) Asthma has tiny impact unless severe. Diabetes, heart conditions, cancer all add a couple of decades to your Covid age so are quite significant if you're middle aged to start with, less so if you're in your 20s.

That Alama table is excellent.

My score is < 50 (very low risk) which is borne out by me having had Covid very mildly back in May.

That site is good, it's the one that Occ Health departments are using to assess risk I think. Certainly ours are.

I'm not particularly worried about the risk of dying from Covid. I know that the increase in risk of that for me is small. What worries me as an asthmatic is whether the risk of longer term complications is higher + the risk of what getting COVID might do to my asthma both in the short + medium-long term.

The massive increase in cases over the past couple of weeks and now the (potentially bad) news about the vaccine has made me feel so very panicked and desperate. Thanks as always to all the calm and rational commentators on here for their wisdom and knowledge. I honestly don't think I can take much more of this.

@Firefliess

Useful summary here fun the BBC on rising cases and how to interpret BBC News - Coronavirus: Five reasons why rise in cases is not all it seems www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54064347

Makes good points, but the repeated stories of people not being able to get tests still concern me. If you can't get a test it is going to be much too tempting to dismiss minor symptoms rather than isolate your household for 10/14 days. So I fear it may be spreading faster than we realise right now.

That article has some good points. I wondered about this graph:



and whether that's the same positivity data that's been discussed on here?

However I do feel it's a one-sided view as it omits to mention factors that mean we may be understating the rise/risks, like, as a PP said, the fact that lots (how many?) of people will be ignoring symptoms, and the fact that lots of potential cases are unable to obtain tests at the moment.

Apologies the graph didn't make it, it's the last one in the BBC article I think, positive cases.

Bercow Best wishes to you and miniBercow 💐
That's frustrating if he picked something up at school, but may well be an ordinary bug

This is a tough time, but it too shall pass, FadingFast 💐

Scientists around the world are working on different vaccines; the global effort has been amazing

There are 8 others apart from Oxford that are already in largescale trials and hopefully the possible issue with the Oxford one won't be serious

The WHO is estimating wide-spread vaccination next summer, but vaccination could start earlier for the most vulnerable

In the meantime, treatments are improving all the time

@fadingfast - sorry you feel so anxious. What, in particular, are you worried about? Have you looked at the Alama table (link above)? The risk to individuals is really very low - the risk is the effect of greater prevelence in the wider community.

*prevalence

Interesting figures about gyms and pools. I really did think that gyms, pools, soft play were all very high risk because of the lack of fresh air, and increased indoor respiration. However it is heartening that they are lower risk, I wonder why that is? Easier to enforce social distancing I guess? Time must be a factor too, less time in the gym than all day in some indoor environments. Plus you change and shower after.