Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

So the immediate cause of death is stated as #1
not what would have killed them in 6 months if that hadn't already killed them,
which is given as #2 cause if it contributed to #1 being fatal ?

New cases:

France 6,544
Spain 3,168

Graph (log scale) of rolling 7-day average of new cases / million

Spain may be starting to level off the increase in growth, but France looks to be still continuing rapid exponential growth

@BigChocFrenzy

So the immediate cause of death is stated as #1 not what would have killed them in 6 months if that hadn't already killed them, which is given as #2 cause if it contributed to #1 being fatal ?

Yes, that's it in a nutshell.

Obviously, if somebody is frail already, has lived with whatever chronic conditions for a long period of time, all that will contribute to their death, but won't be their official 'cause of death'.

For many people who die at home/in their care home, often at an advanced old age, the cause of death is a best guess anyway. That is all that is asked of the certifying doctor: on the balance of probabilities, what did this person die of?
It is v far from an exact science.

@Layladylay234

One from France:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thelocal.fr/20200904/covd-19-deaths-and-hospitalisations-in-france-begin-to-rise-again/amp

The number of new cases of the virus reported in France has been rising 'exponentially' for several weeks now, from around 500 cases per day in mid July to 7,000 a day in recent days.

However until last week although case numbers were rising sharply, the number of people getting seriously ill or dying with the virus stayed stable, prompting some to hope that the virus had weakened and become milder. But over the last week France has reported a small but steady growth in two key areas; the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care and the number of people dying with the virus.

More concerning:

www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/2-more-spanish-towns-to-be-cordoned-off-due-to-covid-19/1967121

In Madrid, nearly 18% of all hospital beds are now occupied by COVID-19 patients. Nationwide, hospital occupancy has risen from 6% to 8% in just one week.

Both unions and health authorities in the southern region of Murcia are warning of the "imminent collapse" of some hospitals in the area.

Deaths in Spain continue to trend upward. On Tuesday, 78 more fatalities were reported over the past day, bringing the total to 29,594.

Despite awareness of COVID-19, high levels of community transmission mean it is again making its way into vulnerable nursing homes. On Tuesday, the local government of Galicia announced it was intervening in one nursing home after 144 out of 184 residents tested positive.

It's not 100% clear but spain don't appear to reporting all their cases at moment (explanation under updates). Looks like we'll get a clearer picture after the 10th

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/

A bit deceptive re figures for Murcia region. The regional health minister has given a stark warning that admissions to hospital could put the health system into crisis but numbers are actually quite low, and were through the first wave.

Hm. It is worrying.

IME far too many people in RL do not understand what 'exponential growth' means; that it is more/worse than a 'fast rise'.

The risk taking behaviour I think is what is going to catch us out. Severe lockdowns would not be as necessary if we could ALL wash hands, physically distance, wear masks were that is not practicable.

[quote Bercows]@itsgettingweird were you privy to the results of any autopsy or hospital notes? The doctor may have reason to believe that covid was a cause of death due to clinical findings. Tests have been shown to give false negatives. Maybe the lungs showed COVID damage. Maybe there were clotting issues? Organ damage attributed to covid. Why would a doctor lie on a death certificate? What possible motive would they have! [/quote]
They were told negative test when admitted and so sent to non Covid ward.

Then discovered it was cancer spread to brain and another test before moved to oncology.

Then told terminal and not long and had another test to be transferred to hospice.

Told test was clear. Were airing mine and he died hours later.

Transferred to mortuary.

Then when contacted funeral directors told they could visit body, couldn't even wear his own clothes or even touch coffin as he died of Covid.

They were shocked. He'd had 3 negative tests and was being transferred to a hospice hours before he died to die of the terminal
Cancer that had spread to his brain.

I was very sceptical of the stories I'd heard until I saw my colleague break today because they don't understand it, can't get that back and had to attend a funeral limited to 7 people where she couldn't even sit next to her mum.

So obviously I haven't seen results but they didn't do an autopsy. It was refused because he was expected to die. They tried to get them to as wanted it challenged.

It wasn't a conversation I expected to be having but I don't doubt the facts are true.

@HoldingTight

This is a factual thread. Precisely.

I'm sorry your colleague is ill and having a hard time, however, questioning the integrity of an profession does not endear her to me. Seems a deliberate attempt to minimise Covid - I've seen many. I have no interest in a bun fight so I'll say no more on the subject.

Hardly. She shielded first months having MS.

She believes. It her father had a Covid year the day he dies to be discharged to a hospice to die of the cancer they said he was dying of. It was the 3rd negative test he'd had in 6 days.

She totally believes it and is anxious being out and about herself.

I don't see what a doctor gains by a dleiberately false diagnosis

Sounds either a misunderstanding / miscommunication of why COVID was suspected, understandable after bereavement and then anger at a restricted funeral,
or human error by the doctor

So a very sad anecdote, but statistically very rare

Yeah I would hope it is rare. I had heard of other stories and thought people were using it to get on the government pretending etc. Like other posters thought it was the conspiracy theorists!

But this is genuine and they can't get anyone who is willing to explain. Which maybe why she's struggling. If they could say "we did an autopsy" (which they've said they didn't and he didn't meet criteria for it anyway) or "x rays of lungs came back after and we saw ....."

But you all know from the fact I've been here since day 1 I am a believer of Covid and facts.

itsgettingweird, it all sounds v upsetting but is unlikely to be any kind of conspiracy. I'd recommend your friend if she feels it would help contact the consultant responsible for her father's care via his secretary and arranges a debrief meeting. Truly, it is more likely some kind of error than anything else.
Doctors issuing death certificates are so far removed from 'The Government', the don't gain from falsifying death certificates, and have a lot to lose if found out that there was deliberate wrongdoing.

Government announces any gathering of more than 6 outlawed from Monday - includes private homes, indoors and out, not schools workplaces and a few other exemptions eg weddings.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54081131

Hells bells.

That's my work up the creek now. (Events industry) we opened this week, under strict guidelines but cannot live on 1-2-1s which is what we have left.
And we're a really low area, so hoped we'd be fine for a month.or so.

Excludes organised sports, so sounds like gyms and pools will still be ok

Bit disappointing to read that the Oxford vaccine trial has been put on a temporary hold due to a suspected adverse reaction in a UK participant. (They are expected to recover and I think it's yet to be confirmed that the reaction was definitely vaccine related). Also, apparently it's not uncommon for this to happen in clinical trials. Could slow things down a bit though...

More details here: www.statnews.com/2020/09/08/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-study-put-on-hold-due-to-suspected-adverse-reaction-in-participant-in-the-u-k/

That is bad @CoffeeandCroissant. Very disappointing.

Obviously hope the person is ok!

@BigChocFrenzy

Excludes organised sports, so sounds like gyms and pools will still be ok

I was wondering about gymnastics, but it says "organised team sports"...

Oh, that is concerning about the Oxford vaccine;
I do hope it was not a serious reaction for the person affected

“a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials, while it is investigated, ensuring we maintain the integrity of the trials.”

They are rightfully being very careful, despite the urgency:

the hold was placed on the trial out of “an abundance of caution.”

I expect the government will issue a more complete list of what activities are allowed / numbers restricted / banned

Well, gyms have been open here (germany) since 16 May under SD rules and I haven't yet heard of any closure / outbreak of a gym.
I check the RKI daily reports and I don't think a gym has ever been listed in the outbreaks

Exercise here has been encouraged from the start of the crisis
e.g. lockdown had no limits on outdoor exercise (or sunbathing, sitting on benches) so long as SD rules were observed
and it does seem more important to let people stay fit if possible, rather to let them go out drinking

Is there any reference that gives a consolidated list of school closures?

The way I read it, I suspect gyms and pools etc will be closed again.
Organised team sports will be things like amateur football or cricket, surely.
I expect there will be an exemption for professional sport.
BBC website says A full list will be published before the law change on Monday ...so they probably haven't really made their minds up fully yet.🤷🏻‍♀️
One thought - will the govt be forced into another U turn re: extending furlough?