Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Covid-19 death rate among African Americans and Latinos rising sharply

Uneven access to healthcare for COVID, poorer health from previous lack of access for decades, poverty & deprivation

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/08/covid-19-death-rate-african-americans-and-latinos-rising-sharply

In the two weeks from 4 to 18 August the death rate of African Americans increased from 80 to 88 / 100,000 population

For Latino Americans, deaths rose from 46 to 54 / 100,000

In contrast, the deaths of white Americans increased from 36 to 40 / 100,000

A US doctor:

“Hearing the barriers people face getting a Covid-19 test and or attempts to be treated;
listening to people speak about their loved ones dying after having prolonged symptoms unattended;
people who share stories of many in a home being ill and trying to isolate and quarantine in tight, small spaces;
elderly people without a referral from a doctor being turned away for testing
.....
To hear that African Americans represent 12 to 13% of the population but 23 to 24% of the deaths is unacceptable in a developed nation.”

Chart 1:
Weekly change in age of infected cases in England

The last few weeks, infections / 100,000 have been increasing in the young and decreasing in the elderly

Chart 2:
PHE data for infected young people in the regions

NW England tops rate / 100,000 both the 10-19 and 20-29 age groups

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy and @HoldingTight. I know most of my fears are irrational and that I'm not at any particularly high risk personally (I'm 47, no underlying conditions that I think are relevant). I will take a look at the table in attempt to reassure myself. I suppose I'm more worried about being ill and the potential/unknown long term effects than the risk of dying. And of course also worried about friends and family, particularly my mum, who's in her late 70s and lives alone. I think the fact all the bad news is coinciding with 'back to school' and the likely added risks to my DC has pushed me to the edge this week. I know it's the same for many people though.

@Pacif1cDogwood

Re death certificates: They are meant to list what killed the person, not their most serious illness. I sometimes struggle with that: if somebody has a long a slow decline, say, from motoneuron disease, receiving palliative care and everybody knows they are dying, but then they die from being pushed out of the window ie something unrelated, the cause of death would be '1ahead trauma 1b Assault' or whatever with MND mentioned as No 2.

This is why I prefer looking at the excess deaths rather than the headline numbers of COVID deaths.

The way I read it, I suspect gyms and pools etc will be closed again.
Organised team sports will be things like amateur football or cricket, surely.
I expect there will be an exemption for professional sport.
BBC website says A full list will be published before the law change on Monday ...so they probably haven't really made their minds up fully yet.🤷🏻‍♀️

Given that I doubt it was actually thought through at all, I fully expect the law to just be 30 crossed out, and 6 put in its place, that will mean absolutely no changes to any sport activities which weren't limited to the 30 in any case, but were limited by the agreement between the organising body and the DCMS.

@IceCreamSummer20

Interesting figures about gyms and pools. I really did think that gyms, pools, soft play were all very high risk because of the lack of fresh air, and increased indoor respiration. However it is heartening that they are lower risk, I wonder why that is? Easier to enforce social distancing I guess? Time must be a factor too, less time in the gym than all day in some indoor environments. Plus you change and shower after.

.... I've always felt safe in my gym, bar a few slightly nervous days right after it reopened on 16 May As posted, no outbreaks in gyms here that I'm aware of

It depends on the physical premises, the organisation and the staff - and sensible gym members

I wouldn't have felt safe in my previous gym in England, because that was cosy but cramped, with several small rooms and low ceilings - hence limited what they could have done there while even covering running costs

My German gym has been very professional, but has some physical advantages

It is a modern open plan building, with ceilings 5.4m
Doors and windows are open, so plenty of fresh air
The owner has moved the machines in the big main area to give SD, blocking off alternate benches in the free weights area
He has just had air con installed too, with air from outside

There is sanitiser on the walls and on tables everywhere, with paper rolls & bins

Numbers for classes are limited to give 2m SD in those rooms, which are large and well-ventilated to the outside
The main area never felt crowded even before this and I go there in working hours anyway
Initially, time / numbers who could enter the gym were limited, but this has been relaed in stages
Numbers are still strictly limited in the communal changing room, shower and sauna areas

The staff are professional and members have always been considerate and well-mannered, which has continued during this crisis

The owner operates within strict terms laid down by the local public health authority, as well as national regs

I'd say numbers have been 95% back to normal since June; just a few very elderly people or those with severe health conditions are not back, probably a few nervous well too

That wouldn’t leave them much space to change it before Monday, sirfred. Perhaps if they crossed out some of the 30s now and left the rest until Sunday evening.

I do hope the new conditions are spelled out clearly and well-publicised

I'm sure some of the supposed non-compliance is just that a lot of people, who don't normally study the news deeply, are very confused and don't realise they are breaking the rules

I could put that Alama link of personal COVID risk in the next OP ??

Or would people prefer I just keep links there to general info ?

Parkrun have specifically said they are unaffected by the change in restriction, which implies strongly that the existing DCMS agreed sporting rules are not impacted by the change of law from 30.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54083725?pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:ed609a9c-d497-4b00-88a0-e503acfaab46&pinned_post_asset_id=5f58a078a9c71d02bf1ccaec

I'm sure some of the supposed non-compliance is just that a lot of people, who don't normally study the news deeply, are very confused and don't realise they are breaking the rules
I'm equally sure of the opposite, the rules don't suit so some people describe them as inconsistent and go with whatever suits what they want to do instead.

Hello!

I’ve been lurking on this thread for a while and find is hugely helpful, thank you all so much.

I’m sorry my first post isn’t really in the spirit of stats etc but I’m feel very strongly the new announcement is a huge smokescreen for the government whilst their busy breaking international law this afternoon.
As far as I can tell the new changes actually mean very little in practice but are ambiguous enough to get everyone distracted. Anyway, apologies, please send me on my way to the conspiracy theories thread

Mrex I think it's both
There is undoubted deliberate non-compliance with the "it's just flu" crowd and "freeman of the land" / alt-right / anarchist bollocks

However, the frequent rule changes and lack of clarity has confused some

Also, there are a number of people who don't normally keep up to date with what is going on in the country, even before COVID

fwiw, polls here in Germany have consistently shown high support and trust for government policy & for Merkel in this crisis,
but there is a vocal but small uncooperative minority, an unedifying mix of some far right nationalists, far left, anti-vaccine conspiracy nuts and the easily fooled - there has been a substantial anti-vaxx minority here 1930s demonising of vaccines.

Polls have shown about 60% think the German government has the balance right, 30% think rules should be tightened, 10% think they are too strict

Around 80% Merkel personal approval
(impressive, considering there would be some diehard supporters of other parties who would reflexively disapprove of any Christian Democrat = moderate right of centre)

I think that Alama site is really useful @Bigchoc and it would be good to help publicise it on MN and have to hand when discussing risks with people. There seem to be quite a lot of people in here who are very anxious and thinking they or their loved ones are "bound to die" if they catch it, so very helpful to share actual risks. They say they keep the site updated too as new evidence emerges.

@Firefliess

I think that Alama site is really useful *@Bigchoc* and it would be good to help publicise it on MN and have to hand when discussing risks with people. There seem to be quite a lot of people in here who are very anxious and thinking they or their loved ones are "bound to die" if they catch it, so very helpful to share actual risks. They say they keep the site updated too as new evidence emerges.

... OK, will do

Matt Hancock this morning on test shortages:

"The reason we have constraint at the moment is not because capacity has gone down; far from it, capacity has gone up.
It’s that we’ve suddenly seen this rise in demand from people who are not eligible.

For instance, I’ve read stories of whole schools being told to go and get a test.
That is not what the testing is there for.
We need it for people who are symptomatic."

imo, the government have demanded a higher number of tests than the system can manage without adequate additonal infrastructure and resources

However, no country has unlimited capacity

The efficient test capacity atm in the UK may be only 100,000
Whatever it is, the testing criteria need to be be matched to realistic capacity, which means obtaining tests locally and receiving results within a short time

The government should state which groups should be tested regularly without symptoms and how often - presumably care staff and frontline NHS staff -
and instruct schools etc that this is not possible for them

Agree @BigChocFrenzy there is a high number of testing, but the contact tracing itself does not seem high quality - tracking people who need to be tested, getting people to isolate. Graph from our world in data website.

I’d agree it’s a mixture. There’s people that would try to do the right thing, but get caught out by the confusing messaging and sometimes frequent changes. As you say there’s also those that don’t pay much attention anyway. I don’t think either of those groups are helped by a lack of enforcement on some of the guidelines.

Then there’s those that wouldn’t follow it anyway however clear the guidelines were.

I also suspect there’s a group that don’t because from an individual point of view (rather than public health at a population level) some of the rules & guidelines don’t make a lot of sense from an infection point of view. And once they start spotting those bits, then it’s easier to write the whole lot off.

Realistically 8 people from 2 different households meeting up outside, especially with a bit of SD between households is probably less of a risk than 4 people from 2 household sitting round a table in a pub on a Saturday night.

I agree Rafals. I'm a bit sceptical about some of Matt Hancock's blaming of everyone apart from government for the lack of testing. I'd like to know which school it was that asked 100% of pupils go and get tests, for instance....

I think the Alama calculator is really useful, good idea BigChoc.

I'm not sure about the Alma link, I'm not sure how helpful it is. Those that disregard the rules often quote that the chance of dying from covid is miniscule for the majority, but the majority still need to observe SD etc as the risks from covid are so much more complicated than the risk of dying.

I did hear of someone looking for a test to return to uni.

And then some need tests before going on holiday.

I've seen on here 1 person in a household has symptoms and yet the whole household is tested.

I'm not saying it adds up to 25% but it could still be a significant number of tests.

I agree Morfin it's entirely irrelevant what the individual risk from COVID is, unless the policy is purely about isolating those at risk. Given that is not the policy, the way COVID is talked up to be so dangerous is probably the right approach. If people are happy with their own personal risk, and happy that they do not live or spend any time with at risk people then they would see little reason in harming themselves by isolating.

We closed one of our nursery classes today, equivalent of reception/year 1 mixed class. Two children have tested positive in the class. As a result I can confirm that the closure time has been reduced to 10 days in France.

Strangely the parents have been sent an email saying that the education liaison doctors think that the positive children have presented an infection risk, so the class is closing; and also a letter signed by the doctors saying that the measures in place have prevented any chance of infection, so the children do not need to be isolated

The government should state which groups should be tested regularly without symptoms and how often - presumably care staff and frontline NHS staff -
and instruct schools etc that this is not possible for them

Tbf, I don’t think schools are, by and large, getting asymptomatic children to be tested. I don’t think this is the problem. I don’t think they foresaw the issue of lots of children getting coughs/colds resp tract infections when returning to school. And that most of these having at least 1 common symptom with the testing criteria would cause a rise in the number of people legitimately getting tests.