Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

whats that concerns me as again, the key symptom aren't what the government are saying.

Findings In this cohort study of 315 children with COVID-19 and 1402 children with seasonal influenza, there were no statistically significant differences in the rates of hospitalization, admission to the intensive care unit, and mechanical ventilator use between the 2 groups. More patients with COVID-19 than with seasonal influenza reported fever, diarrhea or vomiting, headache, body ache, or chest pain at the time of diagnosis.

Just been ready the Daily Mail website (yes I know) about the number of deaths from of people testing positive for SARS -CoV-2.
The headline says that 30 more people have died and that it’s the highest number since 30 June.
According to NHS It was 8 in the last 24 hours.

One thing I noticed was that there were quite a number of comments saying it’s very convenient that the numbers have shot up just before there is a review of the coronavirus act in parliament. Within about 2 minutes all of those comments have suddenly disappeared.

Does anybody know why they would remove these comments? Seems a bit odd.

@itsgettingweird he’s grown on me the last couple of days I agree. Also agree he seems a lot more human and compassionate than Boris and a lot of the others.

Holding how rude. My colleague was in bits over it and was telling me. I hadn't seen her since March and don't know her dad died until I spoke to her. She has no reason to make it up and only reason conversation came up re her dad was she asked how my mum was as she has terminal cancer.
This is a factual thread. If your gonna start being like that find a thread where people want a bum fight

This is a factual thread. Precisely.

I'm sorry your colleague is ill and having a hard time, however, questioning the integrity of an profession does not endear her to me. Seems a deliberate attempt to minimise Covid - I've seen many. I have no interest in a bun fight so I'll say no more on the subject.

@itsgettingweird were you privy to the results of any autopsy or hospital notes? The doctor may have reason to believe that covid was a cause of death due to clinical findings. Tests have been shown to give false negatives. Maybe the lungs showed COVID damage. Maybe there were clotting issues? Organ damage attributed to covid. Why would a doctor lie on a death certificate? What possible motive would they have!

@PrayingandHoping

The 30 aren't all hospital deaths... some of them will be in the community (ie care homes)

There is a nhs spread sheet which gives the daily hospital deaths but I'm on my phone and it doesn't open on it....

NHS England reported 8 hospital deaths today. PHE reported 27 in total for England which would mean 19 out of hospital.

Actually. I can believe that someone could have 3 -ve tests and still be thought to have covid.

There is a high false -ve rate. It might be that clinically covid was thought to be most likely the cause of the acute deterioration even though there was an underlying cancer. Also, there is a classic appearance on chest X ray that can be diagnostic.

3 covid tests would most likely suggest that there was a strong clinical suspicion of covid and they were trying to confirm this.

It isn't that unusual that there can be some lack of absolute diagnostic clarity, around the main cause of death , especially with a novel illness that is complex in its manifestations.

But very confusing for the poor family, I cam see that. And of course, it is more difficult to have discussions, as visiting is limited, and conversations are happening through PPE etc.

Poor shielding colleague.

Just looking at the age distribution stats for confirmed cases. Irritatingly the dashboard shows only the cumulative confirmed case figure for the 5 year age bands rather than a more recent time period. Although I'm not complaining about having five year age band though!

The PHE weekly surveillance report is now including weekly age breakdown albeit by ten year age bands. However being the impatient sort I took the cumulative figures before and after today’s update to see the change over 24 hrs.

This not surprisingly as per the graph shows a disproportionate number of cases in the 15-19 to 35-39 groups, with that for the 20-24 yrs old more than double the proportion that group make up of the overall population in England. 45-49 age group also over, and perhaps more worryingly, although in smaller absolute numbers, the 90s and over group.

Had I not been quite so impatient I would have taken the before and after view for a couple of the regions too, however acting before thinking proved my downfall here.

The last weekly PHE report was before the real cases upsurge so it will be interesting to see the weekly age breakdown figures when the latest report comes out at the end of the week. Although I think their use, unless it is changed this Friday, of ten year bandings will not show the currently stark difference between the 10-14s and the 15 to 19s.

@herecomesthsun

I'n really curious about the "deaths after 28 days" but can't find the figures.

Ganesh on twitter is a good (secondary) source. This thread has the totals for last week for 28day, 60day and no cut off with ons comparison. If you look at ons as the "most correct" ( ie Covid as factor on death cert), 28 day undercounts but 60 day overcounts. No cut off is a bit bonkers

mobile.twitter.com/ganeshran/status/1303255361982476289

He gives daily updates for 28/60 day rolling averages as well

@itsgettingweird

Holding how rude. My colleague was in bits over it and was telling me. I hadn't seen her since March and don't know her dad died until I spoke to her. She has no reason to make it up and only reason conversation came up re her dad was she asked how my mum was as she has terminal cancer. This is a factual thread. If your gonna start being like that find a thread where people want a bum fight

Something similar happened to my best friends aunty tbf. She was receiving end of life care for terminal cancer. She did actually test positive in her last days but didn't display any symptoms of it and her main cause of death is covid on her death certificate. The family are really cross. She had terminal cancer and that's why she died.

But people often don't die of 'cancer' 'Parkinsons' 'motor neuron', the cause of death is so often pneumonia, organ failure, flu, although if they didn't have the former they wouldn't have died of the latter. Parkinson's UK campaigned to get PD put on the death certificate as they were struggling with funding because there were not enough deaths from it. People died of something else, but because of Parkinsons.

@Yellowbutterfly1 - no idea, but one possibility is that if the comments came from known trolls or foreign agencies then they would be removed. Rafts of concerned citizens can appear to all be posting from the same flat at times, which happens to be in another country or via IP hiding services. I don't know if the main two countries that do this are trolling about covid or not, but it has happened with many other topics.

Yes, some years ago, an elderly friend of my mum's with terminal cancer had pneumonia as main cause of death

It was a mild surprise, but didn't cause the same anger that Covid seems to cause now

These are the minority of people who genuinely would probably have died within a year even without COVID
Covid is being put on death certificates just like flu or pneumonia would have been

Doctors aren't suddenly choosing to lie - why would they risk their reputation, at worst being struck off for a professional lie ?

[quote MRex]@Yellowbutterfly1 - no idea, but one possibility is that if the comments came from known trolls or foreign agencies then they would be removed. Rafts of concerned citizens can appear to all be posting from the same flat at times, which happens to be in another country or via IP hiding services. I don't know if the main two countries that do this are trolling about covid or not, but it has happened with many other topics.[/quote]
....
UK, US, Germany and some other EU governments have warned that both Russia and China have been trolling on COVID to stir up trouble of all kinds to increase instability and public mistrust:

stirring up disproportionate fears of COVID, stoking up conspiracy theories of vaccines / 5G / Gates, advocating non-compliance with SD measure

@tootyfruitypickle

I’m had some news today that I may be facing a diagnosis which would plump me firmly into what would have been the shielding group. There’s some hope it may not be that bad, but the rising numbers are making me feel very doom and gloom. It would be a very good time to have some news on a vaccine wouldn’t it Might make it easier to have a final push on restrictions until it can be rolled out. Think we’re looking at November for next scientific update?

Sorry to hear this tooty

I'm still assuming another year until an effective vaccine, but for no other reason than they estimated 18 months at absolute best, at the start of all this.

Re blood clotting etc, blametheparents posted this at the end of the last thread, which was interesting (to me with no medical knowledge!)

elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

"Really interesting article here about how a super computer has analysed covid data and makes hypothesis about the disease and suggests treatments."

The 2 most effective COVID drugs are both steroids, which I didn't think was the usual standard treatment for the tiny % of flu patients who end up in hospital

Hi all. I follow this thread at times and it's great but the numbers do make my head hurt!

I was just wondering if anyone could help me with hospitalisations and deaths in Spain and France over the past 2 weeks as I know we seem to be following their trend of an increase in cases so am curious to know the position on hospitalisations and death as so many here are talking about the lag of these that is bound to come with the increase in cases

I'm sorry if I'm being thick but why would people be angry that is says covid on the death certificate? It isn't something to be ashamed of. As others have said people with cancer/MS/Parkinsons etc will often die of flu or pneumonia, this isn't any different.

I don't think I even read my mother and father's death certificates, if I did I can't remember what they said. I knew they were dead, I needed the certificates for legal things. I do remember my aunt commenting on my uncle's death certificate, he had cancer and advanced dementia and his certificate said he died of frailty of old age.

@Layladylay234

I found this article a few days ago:

www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/spain-over-920-covid-19-patients-hospitalized-in-a-day/1954262#

Sorry to hear you are facing this possibility, tooty
re vaccines info:

The WHO have been talking about largescale vaccine rollout in mid-2021
and it may be that e.g. the Oxford vaccine is rolled out in the UK in early 2021

Currently, 9 vaccines are in stage 3 trials (large-scale safety & efficacy tests)
There has been an amazing effort by scientists around the world to work on vaccines for COVID:
also treatments are being developed further all the time

Good overview of the possible vaccines here:

www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/sep/08/covid-vaccine-tracker-when-will-a-coronavirus-vaccine-be-ready

Gosh, this fred moves quickly!
Sorry, I can't scroll back and forth fast enough to remember names.

1. Mis-certifying known diagnoses on a death certificate would be serious professional offence and unlikely. Doctors at the coal face don't gain from doing something as obvious as putting Covid on a DC if it was cancer that killed them.
2. Covid tests are still unreliable to varying degrees. False negatives in asymptomatic people are common; I think in some cases up to a third. Apparently false positives also exist.
3. I think I may need to adopt John from TravellingTabby - what a man! Love his site.
4. I am going out of my way to not listen to politicians speak on t'telly box. Not good for my blood pressure.
5. Covid numbers are wildly unreliable. Not recording community deaths was just an outrageous thing to do IMO. The most interesting number IMO is the 'additional deaths' one ie how many more people have died this year in any given time frame compared to last year or to a 5 year average.
6. Long Covid Recovery Rehab: There is no actual provision where I work that I know of. There's talk of arranging chest x-rays 3 months after Covid related pneumonitis, but no real consensus why?/to what end/what are we looking for? Or who is to arrange them? Who reports them? Who actions them? What action is required in the first place.

I have to be honest and say I am not filled with optimism and worry that people are going to be left to it. Like with lots of chronic health conditions, people with the right kind of resilient personalities will do better than those in more need of support and guided rehabilitation.

That's in no particular order btw. It was a long day at the coal face today and all I'm capable of is a bit of a brain dump, sorry.

BigChoc, you are right, steroids would not be considered typical flu treatments.
Some people with viral pneumonitis can develop wheeze/airway inflammation or their asthma might get set off by the infection, in which case steroid may be given for that, but not specifically for flu alone IYKWIM.

Thanks, Pacif1c those are all very useful points

Re death certificates:
They are meant to list what killed the person, not their most serious illness.
I sometimes struggle with that: if somebody has a long a slow decline, say, from motoneuron disease, receiving palliative care and everybody knows they are dying, but then they die from being pushed out of the window ie something unrelated, the cause of death would be '1ahead trauma 1b Assault' or whatever with MND mentioned as No 2.