Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 17

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 17 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard
UK govt pressers Slides & data
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists each Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data test positivity etc, DIY graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Yes it changed while I was typing.

Specimen dates a bit more strung out than the last two reporting days

Sunday 6th 617 added taking total to 617 -

Saturday 5th 720 added total now 1869

Friday 4th 145 added total now 2060

Thursday 3rd 261 added total now 2149

Wednesday 2nd 184 added total now 2397

Tuesday 1st 30 added total 1882

Monday 31st 110 added total 1227

Also it seems many people can't get a test so I fear the real number of cases is a lot higher.

It is really confusing for everyone.

2948 was yesterday’s number

yes, I was wondering about the testing shortage, maybe these figures are under reported then!!?

Deaths within 28 days of positive test = 30 (27 England, 3 Scotland). Highest since late July.

Patients in medical ventilation beds 62 (England), 52 yesterday.

Patients in hospital (England) 519, down from 537 yesterday. Must have sent a lot home!

English hospital admissions 85, bringing 7 day average to 72, from 65.3 yesterday and a low of 45.1 on 22nd Aug.

New cases 2420 (NI missing). Is the lack of testing availability having an affect?

Some of bigger case numbers added today

Brum 91 (as compared with over 200 yesterday)

Bolton 54

Bradford 63

Kirklees 35

Leeds 83

Leicester 31

Liverpool 35

Manchester 52

Sandwell 28

Sheffield 26

Sunderland 22 (50+ in each of last two days if memory serves)

Tameside 31

30 LAs added zero cases, and another 54 just one case

Patients in hospital (England) 519, down from 537 yesterday. Must have sent a lot home!

Does this reflects that once a patient has sadly died they no longer count as in hospital?

It seems standard in all countries to include deaths in "discharges from hospital"

It's reasonable that only live patients count, so that's 30 down to start with

The 30 aren't all hospital deaths... some of them will be in the community (ie care homes)

There is a nhs spread sheet which gives the daily hospital deaths but I'm on my phone and it doesn't open on it....

@BigChocFrenzy

It seems standard in all countries to include deaths in "discharges from hospital"

Although I do notice they don't update the population on the worldometers to reflect either that or births

I think Hancock’s evidence that the lab backlog will take a couple of weeks to fix is really concerning.

Not just because of the potentially missed infections but also because of the loss of confidence in the system and the potential unwillingness of people to test going forwards as a result.

I’m a very rule abiding individual ( probably too much ) and even I have been really out off by the difficulty, length of time and disruption getting tested has taken.

Germany:

Cases have now been very slowly trending downwards for 2 full weeks

cw 34 ... 9,542
cw 35 ... 8,746
cw 36 ... 8,346

Today as usual for Tuesday was a high -1499 - after 3 days < 1,000

R was 1 or < 1 from mid-July to just after mid-August
but has R has been 1 or slightly below since then

7-day incidence 9.5 / 100,000

RKI say most new cases are still due to returning holidaymakers and their contacts,
but the usual outbreaks in parties, workplaces, places of worship, care homes etc continue

Average age of infection is 32-33

Weekly hospitalisations averaging 350
Weekly deaths averaging 20

I'n really curious about the "deaths after 28 days" but can't find the figures.

Agree @BighouseLittlemouse

Pacific your comment about pretty graphs made me totally agree. I love visual representation.

Quick couple of tables with today's release included or LAs with a rate per 100,000 of 25 or more, as the England rate in over 20 there are quite a few of them.

Based on w/e Sunday for each of last 4 weeks, so w/e 6th Sep is the sort column. Over 12,000 cases for the most recent so even though there will be added over the next few days given the scale of change I've used that. Actual case numbers for each week then cases per 100,000 for each week.

@Frazzled2207

I actually know MH personally (though not seen him since he entered politics). I do think he's generally a good egg and intelligent and one of the more competent members of the generally awful government - though up to now has been out of his depth with this. That said he is learning on the job and getting better at it as time progresses IMO. Earlier on I'd say he was facing the sack, not that there was anyone around that could do a better job. If there is a reshuffle this autumn - and please kick out the useless Gavin - then I'd say he's very likely to stay.

I have been crucified for standing up for MH many times!

I said he genuinely seemed to listen at press conferences. He genuinely looked harrowed by it all and if he cared. I also noted he wasn't trotted out in DC defence and wonder if that's because he's less likely to 100% toe the line convincingly!
He's also spoken out the last few days about children and schools etc.

He very much still a whip but I think he does a lot of following through necessity rather than his heart always being in it.

Myocarditis being an issue isn’t really a surprise. It’s a complication of a number of viral infections. It was more it turning up in asymptomatic or mild cases

It's common in other asymptomatic and mild virus infections though, in fact the mild cases is one of the reasons why it kills so many athletes, they return to hard training despite the virus and the associated myocarditis. Myocarditis itself though is also often mild or asymptomatic and people return to health without intervention.

Shielding college has returned to work. Chatting today and her Dad died in April. Diagnosed with cancer not long before lockdown and has spread to brain quickly.
3 negative Covid tests.

Cause of death on certificate?

1. Covid
2. Cancer

Her mum is fuming. people are forgetting I think that this is also going on as people deal with this. He was proven to not even have Covid.

In this US study of children there was little difference in hospitalisation, ventilation and admission to icu, between covid and seasonal flu. Main difference was symptoms.

jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2770250

@itsgettingweird

Shielding college has returned to work. Chatting today and her Dad died in April. Diagnosed with cancer not long before lockdown and has spread to brain quickly. 3 negative Covid tests.

Cause of death on certificate?

1. Covid
2. Cancer

Her mum is fuming. people are forgetting I think that this is also going on as people deal with this. He was proven to not even have Covid.

Sorry but I find this very hard to believe.

Link to article confirming no nfl players have myocarditis.

torontosun.com/sports/football/nfl/source-no-nfl-players-have-had-post-covid-heart-ailment

I note your comments @BigChocFrenzy but there seems to be an awful lot of experts disputing idea that Covid is cardio rather than pulmonary, so again caution.

Btw the Peru paper (and I don’t speak Peruvian so stand to be corrected) percentage was based on population being comprised of 90% women, and men had much lower seroprevalence.