Isn't it glaringly obvious that the biggest risk with reopening schools is to the parents?

[ScammedOrWhat]

I'm astounded and angry that the government's messaging around schools reopening has been deliberately spun to avoid mentioning that the biggest risk is surely that kids are going to spread it to their parents.

Chris Whitty's statement avoided saying this, but if you read between the lines it is clear. He DID NOT say reopening schools was "safe" as reported by the media. He said that the risk to children's health from catching Coronavirus at school was outweighed by the bigger risks to their wellbeing in not going to school.

The further reports today that children are at low risk from dying or becoming seriously ill also support that. But what they're NOT saying is that there is absolutely nothing to say children won't carry the virus home.

Children's parents and grandparents are at considerably increased risk once schools reopen.

I'm furious with the government for not being upfront about this. The messaging should be: - yes children need to go back to school, but parents need to be aware that they are more likely to be exposed and dial back their social mixing accordingly.

Children should be taught vigilance and good social distancing and hygiene principles. They should be taught what symptoms to look out for in themselves and their friends, and to report them immediately for rapid testing.

They could have spent the summer pushing these messages out while investing in santization equipment- extra sinks outside, hand santitizer stations, free mask provision etc for schools. So the message should be - your child is probably safe from getting ill but you the parents are not.

Schools were open until mid-March though. At a time when it was still cold and raining a lot so children were indoors a lot. Schools were beginning to close because enough teachers were getting ill to stop schools from functioning normally so it is likely that many children and school workers, as well as parents, have already had Covid-19.

The BBC is today reporting that Sage are modelling for worst case scenario of 80,000 deaths this winter. It’s going to be one hell of a ride...

That's the reasonable worst case scenario.

If there is a good level of compliance with measures to reduce transmission (keeping at least 2m away (unless necessary and mitigated), frequent hand washing and compliance with isolation/quarantine) then it won't be anything like that number.

The numbers coming from France this (record new infections, possible exponential growth www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53954562 ) show how quickly the disease can reassert itself.

That's the reasonable worst case scenario.

It's not that easy to work out what that means exactly. All these statistical models come with a list of assumptions (some are mentioned in the article) and (sometimes very large) error bars that the media always ignores.

I would read it to mean that it's possible that lots of people will die but I guess that we knew that already.

I too am interested to know why spread has not yet been seen in nurseries. Maybe the number of children is still low. A nursery may have 50-100 children spread around the building. A school could have 50-200 in a year group.

@notevenat20 half of my family are Chinese.

Yes, I find it offensive.

What are the health risks to mother and child of covid?

Same as anyone else who gets a severe case - worst is death, but severe illness lasting a long time and compromise (possibly permanently) of heart and circulation, lungs or kidneys.

There have been at least two cases that made the press of pregnant mothers in ICU dying, though in both cases the baby was safely delivered by CSection. Following is link to one of them:

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8194317/Mother-suffering-coronavirus-dies-labour-London-hospital-medics-save-child.html

Less is known about effect on babies - those in early pregnancy in the early part of the pandemic will onlymbe giving birth around now. Fever in pregnancy is associated with some increase tomcertain cingenital conditions, plus can cause miscarriage

I too am interested to know why spread has not yet been seen in nurseries.

It's not clear how much nursery children breath on adults. It's a very simple observation but might make all the difference.

I think you’ll find the majority of parents/carers know this so it doesn’t need to be explicitly stated

It's not clear how much nursery children breath on adults.

My DS spends most his day at nursery sat on his key workers hip staring at her and cuddling her.

My DS spends most his day at nursery sat on his key workers hip staring at her and cuddling her..

That's a great nursery! I guess this doesn't happen with all the children?

Does anybody want to say anything sensible, or make any useful suggestions?

That's the reasonable worst case scenario

It's not that easy to work out what that means exactly

It's not a prediction.

It's a planning tool.

It means they have run the model lots of times, with slightly different inputs, to show how a future outbreak might be. It includes things like how rapidly transmission could resume, how effective T&T might be, uptake of flu jab, extent of normal winter pressures on NHS, compliance with social distancing, compliance with other restrictions etc.

The reasonable worst case scenario is the one where things that couid easily by suboptimal, are all suboptimal together. And/or one or two things go badly wrong but everything else holds up OK. And those adverse possibilities are then aggregated so there's one planning figure to have in mind.

It's not trying to come up with the outlandish disaster scenarios, and it's not intended to be used other than for knowing how much capacity to plan for. Which is still, worst case, a substantial wave and a very difficult winter. But nowhere near the tsunami that was planned for earlier this year. Confidence we can contain has clearly increased

He’s been pretty unsettled since the 4 month nursery break... hopefully he’ll venture off her hip soon 🤞🏽!

There is a risk to parents and grandparents but young people have given up so much to protect older people, and will be paying for this crisis for decades. Plus Brexit, which was foisted on them by older people. Let them learn.

Do people really think that children whose parents get ill and perhaps struggle to work due to long covid will be glad they were able to.learn to help pay back future tax bills?

People talk as though children won't notice if their grandparents die!

If you read up on what children are worried about with covid, their biggest worry is family members getting ill. Presumably because they love them.

Also risks from covid start rising after 40, not just 65+. And even children themselves have long lasting covid symptoms. It's not 'die or fine' with this bloody horrible virus.

parents need to be aware that they are more likely to be exposed and dial back their social mixing accordingly.

PHE told teachers this. That they should be vigilant and think about what they are doing to avoid taking it into school.

Seems fair enough stand alone but it was alongside saying things such as "spread in schools is due to teachers actions"

Even saying it's when they have a coffee break!

Staff rooms have been shut/walk in and leave due to guidance and teachers are in their bubbles all day including lunchtimes!

But I agree with you. The risk isn't so much the pupils in school (although study shows 14-17 is very similar to adults).
It's the high risk of community transmission increasing like in factories etc.

And because children are mainly asymptomatic and they've said they won't test anyone without symptoms you'll not know who has caught or form a bubble when there is a confirmed case with symptoms (likely an adult)

Fewer people are dying currently in the UK than in an average year. It's true that if there is a significant second wave in the future that's really terrible. But the status as we stand right now is that is no viral epidemic in the UK. That's important to remember when thinking about risk.

Rottie Mum - when children returned in June most families with clinically vulnerable people didn’t send their kids in. Only a few year groups were back, the group sizes were very small as lots of kids still stayed at home and a lot of time could be spent outdoors because of the better weather.

In terms of nursery transmission, certainly in my school’s nursery we kept the children outdoors as much as physically possible. The private day care nursery by my house seem to still be doing the same. Obviously that is going to get more difficult over winter, which will be interesting if the virus does end up being airborne.

[quote GingerandTilly]I’m a parent and part-time teacher. I will be working in a room of 30 children and adults including some children with behavioural problems such as physical violence and spitting. I’m clinically vulnerable as is my husband. I’m also a carer for my elderly mother who has no one else to look after her. I have had to fight just to be allowed to wear a mask to teach in and Government guidance is still trying to discourage this. Then even if I manage not to pick it up from my bubble, I still have two children in separate school bubbles who might bring it home.

Had the Government wanted to open schools safely they could have done more. They could have looked at PPE for teachers, they could have provided an online learning option for families concerned about children going back (e.g. those with health issues / elderly relatives) rather than threatening these families with fines for non-attendance. They could have looked at part-time rotas and resourced blended learning properly so there are smaller group sizes and more likelihood of schools staying open without infections spiralling. They could have paid for extra teachers to mobilise supply staff. They could have given schools money for more outdoor learning resources (such as shelters, wet weather gear etc). They could have paid for mobile classrooms or taken over venues to reduce class sizes. They’ve done none of this.

Instead we get told to wash our hands and that our children are in bubbles. However, we all know that is a nonsense when kids have siblings in other years / schools or are mixing outside school.

The BBC is today reporting that Sage are modelling for worst case scenario of 80,000 deaths this winter. It’s going to be one hell of a ride...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53954492[/quote]
Agree .

There was things they could have done.

So a start what's happening to all those nightingale hospitals they erected? I'm sure city centres could have benefitted from sending some kids there. Buses of bubbles of kids and bubbled inside.

Someone said high read everything they do is a bout a campaign. Agree totally. Messaging was protect nhs.

So they built hospitals.

What they need to watch out for is that it's the messages they are t sending via campaign people are becoming wise to

Currently "we've gone on about school funding for years whilst cutting it back and we won't put any funding in either for Covid - we don't actually care about schools"

@notevenat20

Fewer people are dying currently in the UK than in an average year. It's true that if there is a significant second wave in the future that's really terrible. But the status as we stand right now is that is no viral epidemic in the UK. That's important to remember when thinking about risk.

I think most people understand the situation with cases currently - but it is the knowledge that cases are expected to rise and school will be a key transmission hub that is of concern.

@notevenat20

I too am interested to know why spread has not yet been seen in nurseries.

It's not clear how much nursery children breath on adults. It's a very simple observation but might make all the difference.

It has. They've tried to suppress reporting but one made the media. Nursery with 23 people infected.

it is the knowledge that cases are expected to rise and school will be a key transmission hub that is of concern.

This makes sense but I don't really understand why the same concern wasn't expressed about all the raisings of restrictions since lockdown. At least in this case it's clear that children need to go to school. It's much less clear we need to gather in groups of 30 socially, go bowling, have our eyebrows threaded etc

Morte suppression of data:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/27/data-covid-care-home-deaths-kept-secret-protect-commercial-interests

@notevenat20

it is the knowledge that cases are expected to rise and school will be a key transmission hub that is of concern.

This makes sense but I don't really understand why the same concern wasn't expressed about all the raisings of restrictions since lockdown. At least in this case it's clear that children need to go to school. It's much less clear we need to gather in groups of 30 socially, go bowling, have our eyebrows threaded etc

Because we are a liberal democracy and used to people making their own decisions I guess.

I did personally think we came out of lockdown just about two weeks before cases were low enough, but also if other people want to hug and catch it, who am I to stop them?

But school is compulsory and I can't avoid the 'brave' types any more.

That is why social distancing is needed in school.

Because either we enforce social compliance outside of school, or we all share the risks created by those who are not following guidance. UK is doing the latter, it is not good.

@Heatherjayne1972

Yes but they’re never going to openly say it They want everyone back at work. Pronto It’s now the Economy first Stuff us and our health

But if the economy collapses (I know many, many businesses that have not survived this. My own is on the brink of closure) health will be affected because there will be no NHS and even less funding for schools. My company usually generates around £40k in tax revenue which won’t be in the pot this year. That’s a doctor or a nurse and a health assistant or a teacher and a teaching assistants’ wages just gone. A friend’s business has not survived. He had a very busy bar which paid over £300k in taxes each year. Think of the hole in services that closure is creating. It also means 20 people on the ever growing unemployment list. Imagine a UK where the NHS is pared back because of the low tax revenue and people are expected to pay for their own care while also suffering huge unemployment numbers. It’s not so simple as saying “ Economy first Stuff us and our health” because the long term effect of a poor economy on our health is immeasurable.

Ultimately this government does not want to spend the money on it. That’s the bottom line.

They’ve under funded schools for the last ten years and it shows. It reminds me why New Labour did so well with their Education, Education, Education line.

The tories showed us back then they didn’t give a shit about state education and they’re showing us again now.