Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Re: NHS, my consultant said they would not be doing any face to face apt before January and that they plan now long term to alternate between face to face and by phone/video. So that means once a year I can get blood tests, a physical examination and so on rest of the time is a fairly pointless phone call where if I need seeing I have to wait 6m or see a Gp!!

Plus the article linked to about overstretched GP’s - it cited one issue being at risk Gp’s not doing face to face due to being at risk. The good news is that shielding in the UK does not exist now so hopefully that is no longer an issue. As a teacher who is ECV I will find myself amongst hundreds of 11-18 year olds, with a non medical mask as protection in corridors.

Actually i am trying to remember to include this at the bottom of my thread in case anyone here isnt already signed up, and I forgot!

So here it is for anyone who is not already signed up:

If you would like to get coronavirus case numbers in your local council area straight to your inbox every day, you can sign up at www.covidmessenger.com!

I know 5+ people (colleagues in London and their family members) who got tested positive this week. All of them are holiday returners who came back from a couple of countries on a "green list". FWIW, my family also went to one of those countries so it's in no way criticism of other people's decisions - just a statement of fact.

I am guessing holiday makers contribute to a meaningful percentage of London (and UK) positive tests.

@wintertravel1980

I know 5+ people (colleagues in London and their family members) who got tested positive this week. All of them are holiday returners who came back from a couple of countries on a "green list". FWIW, my family also went to one of those countries so it's in no way criticism of other people's decisions - just a statement of fact.

I am guessing holiday makers contribute to a meaningful percentage of London (and UK) positive tests.

It was said it was holiday makers and the people coming abroad for big events that set off our wave in the first place.

Like a seeding event.

Odd how again we are seeing high imported cases. I think BCF said the same was being noted in Germany?

I wonder whether it is that less risk averse people will tend to be the ones taking overseas holidays at this point, so that there is a multiplier effect in that those who might act more riskily are travelling, then that they may also behave 'more riskily than average' when abroad, and again may spread it on their return through 'slightly more risky than average' behaviour?

And of course there are elements of travelling - trains, planes, ports, airports, places of interest - that will tend to congregate holidaymakers all together?

Seems logical to me!

NHS, my consultant said they would not be doing any face to face apt before January

DD had a referral to a paediatric back specialist in January. Appointment (in July, due to the waiting list) was cancelled. We have just been informed that her appointment has now been moved to next April.

At some point, someone will realise that she will no longer fit the definition of 'paediatric' and we will have to start the process all over again in waiting for an adult back specialist.

I don’t think this has been posted yet from the guardian:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/05/covid-19-could-be-endemic-in-deprived-parts-of-england

Obviously we can’t see the underlying report.

Re cases increasing and travellers the council for my borough is being very open that the increase her is largely returning holidaymakers in 18-39 age range.

"I doubt there is any clear cause of cases rising though tbh"

That's rather pessimistic

Track and trace in Germany found returning holidaymakers were a significant cause
The usual case from workplaces, family parties, places of worship etc continued at about the same level

However, cases have been falling in Germany for about the last 10 days, as those arising from holidaymakers have been tracked, traced & isolated

Uk holidays seem 2-3 weeks behind Germany, so hopefully the Uk will see the same downward trend,
as the returning vacationers work their way through the system

In the Uk and Germany, cases have - SO FAR - remained low enough for this downturn to happen fairly soon,
whereas in France & Spain the cases spread much further and will take longer to get back under control

So I don't agree that the problem is particularly that young people are ignoring SD - they keep getting the blame;
so far the change looks mainly the holidaymaker ripple, returning to work, everybody relaxing SD a little bit

After these effects, it may well be that holiday flights need to be banned this winter - an additional holiday ripple on top of probably higher winter case levels looks very risky

Plans already to scale back or cancel the iconic Christmas markets here as well

Just caught up on the last few pages.
BCF not the Chistmas markets?! I can understand why but knowing things in November / December are being cancelled is sad. Would have usually booked some events by now to do with the DC and none of our 'usuals' are taking bookings when usually they're all sold out

@BighouseLittlemouse

I don’t think this has been posted yet from the guardian:

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/05/covid-19-could-be-endemic-in-deprived-parts-of-england

Obviously we can’t see the underlying report.

Re cases increasing and travellers the council for my borough is being very open that the increase her is largely returning holidaymakers in 18-39 age range.

Gosh that sounds worrying - but also logical. I wonder what can be done about housing conditions for those testing positive in deprived areas. Does it mean putting them in a hotel / quarantine centre for a fortnight or something longer term?

I find the public policy management of this at a local level fascinating (!). I have a relative who lives in SE borough where cases have been rising quite fast. The council have sent out an email warning residents to be careful. I guess this is one of first steps?

Also have a friend in London borough quite high on list - the council have been doing random but regular testing of picked households of which they are one.

I find this all quite reassuring. It shows we are in a v diff sit to feb/March, even if boris and co don’t inspire confidence, at a local level possibly it seems to be being handled well?

If we can get regular saliva tests into schools things really will look much better .

I can see the point about cancelling holidays, but it seems unfair that people with family abroad wouldn't get to travel to see them because all the leeway got used up by parties on beaches. Disclosure-wise I don't have family abroad, but neighbours and friends do. If cases are really high then block or quarantine, but banning all travel seems overly harsh. Funding will have to be found for the travel industry regardless.

@Augustbreeze - it is yes if it has become endemic in those areas ( which is an if still).

Covid is proving very good at highlighting existing health (and other) inequalities. I think it also emphasises how critical local public health authorities are in messaging/targeting and understanding their populations. In a way tried and tested principles of public health. Sadly run down over the past years.

Unfortunately, quarantining seems to be evaded by considerable numbers of people and it's not practical to set up airport hostels for the likely numbers.

When I moved to Germany, I made the decision knowing that logistically I might not be able to visit the UK when I wanted, even for important events

People who relly wanted to visit family likely did so this summer - many travelled thinking it was either then or wait a year.

@tootyfruitypickle so they've used their council tax list or something to send personal emails to residents? Sounds a good idea but, on further consideration, I can't think how they'd have everyone's email address??

I live near a couple of "watch list areas" and all there's been here afaik is council posts on their Fb page, which I think are very unmemorable and therefore ineffective!

Thanks again for this thread!!! My go to place for statistics.

All these threads and talk about testing made me realize that I have no idea how it works where I am and I thought I missed sth. But it works differetenly to the UK (and again Hessia might be different to Berlin.)

Bothered about my local area as Salford now in the "red zone" with over 50 cases per 100k.

@Prokupatuscrakedatus

Thanks again for this thread!!! My go to place for statistics.

All these threads and talk about testing made me realize that I have no idea how it works where I am and I thought I missed sth. But it works differetenly to the UK (and again Hessia might be different to Berlin.)

..... Prokup I gather that Markus Söder (Bavarian premier) after a "very good COVID" until recently has made a real mistake over testing there:

He said anyone in Bavaria can have a free test if they just want one, no need for symptoms
A nice idea in theory BUT, a state of 13 million has an awful lot of "worried well" who want to be tested - sometimes frequently

The labs and the doctors have complained that the demand is blocking their other work
and results are being delayed for days, due to the backlog

Even in Germany, there is not the capacity to test just anyone who fancies it
Tests need to be targeted at those who have symptoms, or are close contacts of infected people, or are HCPs, careworkers etc

So, national German test figures may keep having small blips with odd dollops from Bavaria, until Söder buries his "clever idea"

Just picking up on the Graun article linked above. Had a quick look at the index of deprivation 2019 overall scores and ranks as compared with cases per 100,000 for each LA in the full month of August (just to give a more balanced recent picture, but clearly this could be done over any time period, so the most recent seven days for example).

So the graph plots x axis cases per 100,000 and y axis overall deprivation score (higher the score the greater the level of relative deprivation). Then two variants of the same graph but with the x axis starting at 50 cases per 100,000 for august overall, and then one running only up to 50 cases per 100,000 (so the majority of LAs).

then to follow the graphs this is the list of the 30 LAs with the highest cases per 100,000 in August with their deprivation score, score rank (1 would equal most deprived LA), and the percentage of their LSOA in the 10% most deprived nationally.

Trafford for example jumps out as 191 / 314 in terms of deprivation