Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Oily fish is also a good source of vitamin D but unwise to rely on diet alone. I found the nozzle of the spray clogged before I ran through the bottle but it did taste good and I took the top off and put the remaining bit on a spoon a few drops at a time. (The spray was supplied free with the private vitamin D test that confirmed the tablets had worked so I used it).

And some more, you know, actual data about NHS workload because I am sick of the political agenda and the ease with which lies are believed.

www.gponline.com/nhs-chiefs-warned-not-underestimate-pressure-gps-figures-show-sharp-rise-workload/article/1691600

I've been following the trend in Leeds as DS lives there.
Interesting comment by the City Council leader that infection seems to be concentrated in the under 30s but not in any particular location.
In other cities with rises in infection they were often concentrated in a small local area and test and trace could identify where things were going wrong.
Much harder to deal with a city wide spread, especially when they have 1000s of students returning next week.

@MRex

I think you're right to feel uneasy, as actual cases have dropped the figures look to have strayed away from the facts. If you compare to regions now, sometimes there are more actual than estimated cases. You can see both regionally in the data reports, I'm much too lazy to create a table comparing them but perhaps someone could (and then send to ONS for comment).

I've emailed PHE about the sewage report. Would findings go through them though?

Thanks, glad it’s not just me, probably too lazy / sleep deprived too...!

Will be looking to what the sewage shows with interest 👀

It's interesting re NHS. Definitely regional.

I was referred 2nd week of August for ultrasound.

Hospital really busy and received call a few days ago from city treatment centre to say they were taking on some of the work. Asked for evening apt due to working in school and being complex covering bubbles.

They apologised they also still had wait but could offer me first week in October.

I either have low expectations or 8 weeks isn't that long really?

@PrayingandHoping

It wasn't blanket across the nhs. Every trust reacted differently

My mum had a cancer scare mid pandemic and was dealt with within the normal time frame (she's had cancer before so we know how it usually works)

My baby has had all her appointments face2face where needed or over phone until August and now my trust is running all face2face again.

My mum and dad were having chemo in March. Both carried on. Both continued their care and all their follow up appointments since.

Mum has even been in hospital 3 times as inpatient.

@BigChocFrenzy

I'm really looking forward to the sewage studies

< and that's not a sentence I ever expected to type ! >

🤣🤣

@NeurotrashWarrior

Very late response from me Neurotrash - been a manic week. But I did want to pull together a quick chart on South Tyneside (South Shields). 70 cases over 7 days recently, up from an average through July/August of approx 4 cases per 7 days. It's an example of how quickly a cluster can materialise. It reminds me of County Durham a few weeks ago.

Hopefully local health teams on the ground get it under control quickly.

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That's a good clear chart, thanks LittleOwl

Can we get those graphs on our Covid messenger email little owl? Really clear representation.

A table like that on the email alerts would be amazing littleowl1 but not sure I want to add to your workload! Really really grateful for the daily emails.

@littleowl1 told us a day or so ago that graphics are difficult to incorporate in the service's emails, unfortunately. She is looking st adding figures for the previous week or similar though, to make trends easier to see.

I’m hopeful I will be able to add it in due course and agree it would be super to include. Unfortunately there is a whole host of tech work that needs to happen first. So plan to get it in but won’t be immediately!

1813/ 12

I don't like today's numbers because they aren't materially down and MSOA is still a mess with spotty new cases filling in gaps. It makes me feel nervous.

Same here, mrex
Trend imo gradually upwards, not alarming, but there

Uk daily cases

26.08 ... 1,048
27.08 ... 1,522
28.03 ... 1,276
29.03 ... 1,108
30.03 ... 1,715
31.03 ... 1,406
01.09 ... 1,295
02.09 ... 1,508
03.09 ... 1,735
04.09 ... 1,940
05.09 ... 1,813

[quote Augustbreeze]@littleowl1 told us a day or so ago that graphics are difficult to incorporate in the service's emails, unfortunately. She is looking st adding figures for the previous week or similar though, to make trends easier to see.[/quote]
Oh wasn't asking her to do it! Just wondered if that's where she's got it from.

Sorry little owl didn't mean to sound like I was pressuring you. Your daily emails are fab!

@MRex

1813/ 12

I don't like today's numbers because they aren't materially down and MSOA is still a mess with spotty new cases filling in gaps. It makes me feel nervous.

@MRex after a slight pause in England it looks like back on an upward trajectory

7 day moving average for England by specimen date now close to where it was at the start of June (June 1st = 1331). Dropped to 535 in first week July, had increased to 720 by early August and 986 just after mid August, as Sep 2nd stood at 1287.

In terms of confirmed cases (again specimen date) this week - so w/c Monday 31st Aug - currently stands at just over 5,000, so may well hit 9,000 once the full week works through, as compared with

Oh thank you @littleowl1! I didn't expect that!

It was a Gp who works nearby and I know a fellow nhs manager there two so yes they're on it! It's been mostly the age 20-30 groups and also half were asymptomatic - which makes me wonder if testing was through contact tracing or knowing you'd been in touch with someone? Also worrying as many wont know they have it.

There doesn't seem to be a key event. Just found this. And yes, shows how quickly it can spike.

www.shieldsgazette.com/health/south-tyneside-added-coronavirus-watchlist-after-huge-spike-cases-prompting-new-local-lockdown-warning-2962390

*It was a Gp who works there who told me

for England the cases per 100,000 at each decile, plus 5th, 95th and 98th percentiles (the last given the more extreme peak areas).

Current week included - whilst this in terms of confirmed cases is not much past half way through the case number so far is a very close to match to the total cases for w/e 2nd Aug.

I noticed 19th August was the low point for test positivity as well, which sadly ties in to that being the moment things turned. Or rather, maybe 14th August being the date when things turned. What happened then?

Could mid August coincide with people starting to return from summer holidays?

14th August:
Weather - humid then thunderstorms.
Weekend after A-level results.
Just over 2 weeks before school return.
It was World Lizard Day - so David Icke would have something to say, haha.

I work in ST (not in healthcare but frequently working with) and am now wondering if I know NeuroTrash in real life! The numbers in County Durham have taken another jump today according to data dashboard - does anyone know why there is a 4 day lag between the daily cases update and the MSOA data - I assume its verification but wondered why the 4 days?

I doubt there is any clear cause of cases rising though tbh. More that young people are getting tired of all the restrictions on their lives and feeling the need for social contact.

@Firefliess - you're quite right, I was just musing in case. News shows a lot of illegal raves on various spots, boredom... But ideal conditions for spread.