Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Yes, a private school : but private schools in Glasgow very very reliant on public transport.

[quote Gwynfluff]@BigChocFrenzy

Any thoughts on India? Read interesting study that they tested in slum areas and 50% had antibodies. Not seen those sorts of antibody results anywhere.[/quote]
....
Recent serological surveys in high COVID epicentres have shown some v high levels of antibodies:

• 93% in Iquitos, Peru
• 78% in some areas of New York City
• 57 % in Mumbai slums
• 37% in N. Italian town

They are all densely populated areas
Also NYC, like London, has the double whammy of being a "world city" with a tremendous number of international connections

[quote Cloudburstagain]**@BigChocFrenzy interesting where transmission is. What are the rules on places of worship in Germany? In England they are limited on numbers, mask wearing, with all local churches near me currently not opening except for weddings and funerals. That may change and I know some are open elsewhere.[/quote]
....
The rules vary, as the 16 German states have a high degree of autonomy

I think rules on places of worship are mostly voluntary, so long as they obey the general rules on gatherings for their particuolar state

One states allow gatherings of up to 200 people; others only 30 to 100

• this of course depends on the level of cases, as a v low population density state like Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania has a 7-day incidence of only 0.6 / 100,000

whereas a few states with higher population density are nearly 14 / 100,000

93% having antibodies, wow!

Department of Health and Social Caree@DHSCgovuk*

Following a significant change in the level of infection over the last few days, Bolton and Trafford will remain under existing restrictions.

This decision has been made in collaboration with local leaders after reviewing the latest data.

www.gov.uk/government/news/bolton-and-trafford-to-remain-under-existing-restrictions

"Restrictions in Trafford and Bolton will remain, meaning residents cannot meet people outside their bubbles either indoors in homes or in gardens.

The latest data for Bolton shows the weekly incidence rate is now at 66.6 cases per 100,000 people on 30 August.

This compares to 18.9 per 100,000 people between 17 August and 23 August.
....
Latest data for Trafford shows weekly incidence at 36.8 cases per 100,000 people on 30 August.
This compares to 17.8 per 100,000 people between 17 Aug and 23 August."

"The lifting of restrictions in Burnley, Hyndburn, Stockport and parts of Calderdale, Kirklees and Bradford will go ahead"

Bank of England warns mass return to UK offices 'not possible'

I wonder if this is specific to London, being so huge and with massive blocs of offices ?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/02/bank-of-england-warns-mass-return-uk-offices-not-possible

Alex Brazier, the Bank’s executive director for financial stability strategy and risk, said it was “not possible” for a mass return to city centre offices across Britain this autumn
due to Covid guidelines, concerns over the health risks, and transport capacity issues.

“With Covid safe guidelines, it’s not possible to use office space – particularly in central London and dense places like that – with the intensity that we used to use it.
So it’s actually not possible to bring lots of people back very suddenly

Speaking to MPs on the Commons Treasury committee, the senior Bank official, who is responsible for regulating some of the City of London’s biggest employers,
said it would take several months for firms to bring back staff and that it would depend on the risks from Covid-19.

Studies around the world show that either of 2 cheap steroids save lives in some severe cases:
dexamethasone and hydrocortisone

www.theguardian.com/science/2020/sep/02/two-types-of-steroid-found-to-save-lives-of-some-covid-19-patients

@Harencha

Is it possible to find out the test rate vs positive test rate for LAs? I've tried but struggling.

Notably Redcar & Cleveland, Middlesbrough and Stockton who are all bordering each other and cases are rapidly increasing.

I think the trouble is that in WW2 there wasn’t any social media saying that there wasn’t a war. And at that point in time press was tightly controlled too

Here in the south west we haven’t seen much direct evidence (I don’t know anyone who has has had it locally) so it’s easier to believe the global conspiracy/it’s just flu theory for some.

Sorry wrong quote should have been @BigChocFrenzy

@MRex

I think they were correct that people wouldn't stick to lockdown for long; it's been evident for months now that a significant portion of people gradually stopped following rules at certain points. Look across Europe at all the young people holding raves, protests all around the world (not just explicitly covid), it's like they all ran out of patience at once. I think we should have locked down a week or so earlier, but I don't find retrospectives on the economy and health helpful while we're still in the middle of this pandemic, for many reasons. There's the ongoing changes in situation both economically and in infection rates, there's the mix of what went well or badly that is usually skewed, the inconsistent reporting of figures, the possibility that recent past will inform future behaviours (see Asia with SARS)...

I agree with this

It’s not an even situation, you’d have to consider when the virus hit and other factors. Better to group together with countries in similar situations- a) Western, international, tourist heavy b) post SARS, good systems, lower privacy etc c) developing, hit hard, numbers may be sketchy d) hit later, could see other countries as evidence to population, very low numbers easier to trace

There’s probably a country that has done well in each group and you’re better off to compare to them than another group. Eg U.K. could have been more like Germany rather than NZ

Plus there’s what happens next between low proportion v high proportion having had it. Much hinges on vaccine.

@MRex

That child antibody report is good info. 6.9% children of healthcare workers have antibodies and 50% symptomatic, yet previously research said 12% of healthcare workers (16% care home workers) had antibodies. So that continues to back up the theory that children are less likely to catch it as well as less likely to get symptoms. Actually nearly half as likely to catch it and only half get symptoms.

It doesn't prove this, as the children were not in the same environment that the parent was. In order to make a true comparison, surely you would need to compare the children with the other adults in the house? And even then a true comparison is very difficult as children are less likely to kiss on the mouth, share beds, etc. Your assumption is that 100% of adults living in the same house would have caught the virus, and I think this is not likely to be the case.

*+ 93% in Iquitos, Peru

• 78% in some areas of New York City
• 57 % in Mumbai slums
• 37% in N. Italian town*

Does it all translate to higher death rates? In some places - thinking of Mumbai slums - is it still they are relatively young population (imagining not a huge number proportionately of 60-80 year olds?)

And interesting that the North Italian town has such high rates that aren’t replicated in other Western European countries with dense urban areas that had lots of deaths and infections.

Thank you for discussions about aerosol / contact transmission.

V tired after going back to work. We are a uniquely large primary and I do feel staff should be wearing more masks. We've been told to have one available and how to use properly.

The biggest mitigation is tonnes of hand washing, santitiser and washing / quarantining equipment. My concern is that if contact is the issue from air transmission, some areas are having a lot of traffic. Cupboards with equipment in etc.

@Nellodee - it is not possible to confirm how many household members get infected, because testing at the wrong time can deliver false negatives, particularly in asymptomatic people. Previous studies have all shown similarly much smaller infection risk for children than for adults, I'd personally put less faith in them than antibody studies because of false negative results and the difficulty of knowing who was infected first, but here you go: www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/latest-evidence/transmission
-Age-stratified analysis showed that the secondary attack rate in symptomatic children was 4.7% compared with 17.1% in adults (≥ 20 years of age) [56], and that the probability of infection in children was 0.26 times lower (95%CI 0.13-0.54) than in elderly people (≥ 60 years of age) [57].-

A raft of studies have said from day 1 that children are less likely to be infected, less symptomatic and less likely to transmit the virus. Children under 11 particularly that's the case; teenagers and young adults slightly more likely to catch and transmit the virus, but still less likely than older adults. Time and again each study comes to the same conclusions. Yet you continually want to refute them. Why?

@Gwynfluff I read that in the Mumbai slums very few of the population are over 60 as they have a much lower life expectancy.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54005621
Transmission within schools detected in Glasgow. Am completely unsurprised by this. We're 3 weeks into the new term and every day there's news of pupils testing positive in different schools.

Those who dont learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

I'm not sure that the British public were quite as compliant in WW2 as suggested but even if they were things have changed. Children are now raised very differently and have expectations that were not present when I was young. The public also have, with a lot of justification, considerably less trust in politicians. Our government not only fail to lead by example they are seen and known to fail.

The government insisted on a national lockdown. I understand the rationale for this - people fleeing the most infected part of other countries e.g. Italy spread the virus - but it did inflate the economic damage. It would have been sensible to ban travel but allow the south west more freedom, since it was not significantly affected (apart from torbay) early on. There was no logical reason to close non-essential businesses in areas with low levels of disease.

Another reminder, however, that it was not only London hit hard www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52263285 and had travel bans not been imposed that the rest of Britain would have rapidly followed. Indeed other major connurbations with international airports were still hit fairly hard not much later than London. The national lockdown meant such areas were able to benefit from the rapid learning in London about how to manage the disease and the death rate was probably slightly lower as a result. If there is a second wave areas that will suffer most (like the south west because they have few people with antibodies) will still have a lower death rate because of experience gained in treating this disease.

Had the government banned travel (and hence mass events) a week earlier and imposed strict lockdown only in heavily affected areas economic damage would have been considerably reduced. If they had adequately prepared by stockpiling PPE both deaths and economic damage would have been reduced. If they had relaxed some restrictions (garden centres, outdoor attractions) earlier economic damage would have been reduced. Furlough was helpful, though - kept money in the economy.

Locking down a week earlier would have meant restrictions could have been relaxed sooner and more fully for the summer.

Incidentally the research study that mentioned the bradykinin storm also mentions another plausible method by which vitamin D may influence this disease. Our government has failed to include this in intervention studies, a failure that is incomprehensible. I shall be back on vitamin D tablets soon.

@IceCreamSummer20 thanks - interesting. So younger people really don't become as unwell with it and die, even in really poor populations with poor access to health care?

But still wondering why other European epicentres like London, Madrid, Paris aren't showing same antibody results as Italian town, or have they just not tested?

@Gwynfluff I read that the mortality rate was higher in Mumbai than the slums, associated with over 60 year olds. Yet it also attributed the higher death rate to sedentary underlying conditions, and lifestyles associated with greater wealth, such as diabetes and hypertension - which are not as high in the slums.

Thanks.

young people dont generally die from Covid, even without health care. What we dont know is how many become disabled by it and die sooner than they would otherwise have done. The percentage of those may well be higher in countries without decent health care, although fortunately the steroids that are currently the best treatment are cheap.

I have been thinking about that. I am worried about long term lung damage and what that means for people who have had Covid19 and their life prospects.

Is anyone in County Durham?

When compiling the number of cases for the daily emails for www.covidmessenger.com, County Durham keeps catching my attention.

Firstly, because a few weeks ago it was a fairly average/low prevalence area - around 10 cases per week at the start of August - but then very suddenly jumped up to 40-60 cases over 7 days.

With a robust on-the-ground response and track-and-trace , I would have expected a "breakout" of this magnituede to be contained quite quickly and these numbers to start to drop off; 40-60 cases "seems" manageable or, at least, not "out of control". But the cases per 7 days have remained stubbornly high since August 17th.

I also wondered if there was any link with university gatherings. I assume not, as it was August when this kicked off, but I thought it was worth asking given its an obvious centre for people gathering.

I should mention County Durham council excludes Darlington Hartlepool & Stockton-on-Tees.

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Get coronavirus case numbers in your local council area straight to your inbox every day at www.covidmessenger.com

Sorry, I meant to include this. Here is the link to all the councils case numbers in England

www.covidmessenger.com/coronavirusliveupdate/