Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 16

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 16 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
MSAO Map of English cases
[[https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/909430/Contain_framework_lower_tier_local_authority__14_August_2020.pdf
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
R estimates UK & English regions
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday
ONS England infection surveillance reports
ONS UK death stats released each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
WHO dashboard
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

Yes WHO have accepted evidence for airborne transmission, after being heavily lobbied by scientists. I expect it is one reason they have recommmended masks for children.

The BMJ is again calling for greater understanding of airborne transmission. As the WHO and others are still concentrating on higher risk airborne transmission. It states for example:

Currently, aerosol generating procedures for low risk patients are often delayed or denied, and when they do go ahead are conducted with meticulous and expensive airborne precautions, while higher risk patients who are coughing, talking, and breathless are cared for by staff wearing just a surgical mask. Retrospective studies from China have observed higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection among staff treating low risk patients and using droplet precautions than among those wearing respirators to treat higher risk patients.

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3206

It also states:

Inhalational risk may be reduced by social distancing, limiting interaction indoors, avoiding air recirculation, improved natural and artificial ventilation, and innovative engineering solutions which collect and neutralise aerosols to provide clean air in personal and community spaces.14 The infection risk associated with deep breathing, talking, and singing indoors is underappreciated and urgently needs attention

I’ve come late to the party and haven’t read the whole thread but is there anymore evidence to suggest COVID-19 is mutating in to something less dire? Or has that idea been discredited?

elemental.medium.com/a-supercomputer-analyzed-covid-19-and-an-interesting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

I read this this morning, I know medium isn't always a great source, but the paper it links to sounds very interesting!

I don't think this is new information, the ACE receptors stuff was definately known about in April.

I am aware that we've known that, but the bradykine storm rather than cytokine storm is new information to me. Apologies if I am sharing old news.

I hadn't read the paper about the Bradykinin storm and the renin-angiotensin system, thanks Furforks, it looks interesting and throws up the potential of treatment with existing drugs.

ONS figures are out.

In Week 34, the number of deaths registered was 5.2% above the five-year average (474 deaths higher); this is the second consecutive week that weekly deaths have been above the five-year average, however, the rise was not driven by the coronavirus (COVID-19)

I've just posted on the studies thread about aerosol transmission in a nursing home

I had sort of assumed that is why dexamethasone works.

BigChocFrenzy There's a studies thread...... Ooooh. Can't find it :-(

Sorry posted too soon. It didn't come up when searching, but then saw it under Coronavirus. I now have some reading to do :-)

Trafford and Bolton locked back down again:
Manchester lockdown easing U-turn after cases rise www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-53995677

@NeurotrashWarrior

Can anyone comment on the assertion that COVID is primarily spread through surface contact?

Everything I've been reading recently seems to indicate the opposite.

Yes I’m interested in this too. Extreme concern about surfaces of fixed objects outside in the weather but no concern about plastic food packaging has made no sense at all.

heatwaves normally cause some deaths. The distribution of excess deaths by region suggests this may be part of the answer, with higher excess deaths in the South East, London and the South West.

The distribution of excess deaths by region suggests this may be part of the answer, with higher excess deaths in the South East, London and the South West.

But why at home, and why in 40-60 year olds? Perhaps the at home is people who would've moved to a care home in normal years but them and their families are holding out this year. The younger groups aren't normally heat wave deaths though, but I do agree the location is suggestive.

Getting cause of death coded stats or more discussion of non-covid deaths would be useful now - help to identify if the increases or rates are caused either by a long covid problem, or by lockdown exasperated problem, although little evidence of either so far it seems.

Pre print of antibody prevalence in U.K. children of health care workers

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.31.20183095v1

"But why at home, and why in 40-60 year olds? Perhaps the at home is people who would've moved to a care home in normal years but them and their families are holding out this year. "

At home because people are more reluctant than usual to go into care homes and also probably some deaths that are undiagnosed Covid as it causes heart attacks and strokes.

I didnt say it was the whole answer.

@BigChocFrenzy

Whitty and the SAGE nudgers were looking at compliance: they didn't think the public would comply until scared by a lot of deaths actually happening

However, COVID lockdown was most effective the earlier it was imposed, because of the basic mathematics of exponential growth

In Europe, including the UK, compliance was pretty good, even in countries like Denmark, Norway, Germany where lockdown was imposed at a stage when they had v few deaths
e.g. the early lockdown is credited as the main factor in Germany's low death toll
and most analysts abroad blame the late lockdown for the IUK's high toll

The modeller James Annan has investigated what would happen to the UK and Germany

if lockdown dates had been just 1 week different:

1. UK 1 week earlier
   ==> deaths 11k instead of 43 k (as of the date of his calculation)

2. Germany 1 week later:
   ==> deaths 34k instead of 9k

[[https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2020/05/12/the-human-cost-of-delaying-lockdown]]/
[[https://bskiesresearch.wordpress.com/2020/05/14/why-cant-the-germans-be-more-like-us]]/

Going back a bit as just catching up. This is interesting and big differences.

I also wonder how much the initial strategy of not overwhelming NHS played a part. In which case a later lock down makes sense.

1508 cases added today; 1239 in England

England to W/E 30th Aug 7517 cases with geography confirmed as compared with 6650 the previous week, and 6810 the week before that. Rate per 100000 up from 11.8 to 13.4. Likely some further cases still to feed through for last week so that caveat to note. 100 cases w/e 23rd with no confirmed geography below England, and 133 at the moment for last week, add those in and rate increases by around 0.2 in each week.

Some clear regional differences.

North West 1449 to 1809, rate per 100000 19.7 to 24.6

North East 252 to 416. Rate 9.4 to 15.5

York’s & Humber 857 to 1016. Rate 15.6 to 18.5

West Midlands 790 to 877 . Rate 13.3 to 14.8

East of England 429 to 647. Rate 6.9 to 10.4. Norfolk up from 32 cases to 126, food site outbreaks?

Then

South East pretty much flat 701 to 706 cases, rate 7.6 to 7.7

Ditto London 1153 to 1173 . Rate 12.9 to 13.1

And

South West down slightly 403 to 364 . Rate 7.2 to 6.5

East Midlands 616 to 510. Rate 12.7 to 10.5

boys, yes, outbreak in a food factory in Norfolk.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-53977572

The NHS was about to be overwhelmed when lockdown came in. I seem to have to remind people often of this www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-cases-intensive-care-nhs-northwick-park-a9414311.html

A late lockdown made no sense whatsoever and had it not been for sensible (not cautious, lets call it by the right name) people starting to take action themselves before lockdown more NHS hospitals would have been in that position. You'd have had people dying in hospital corridors or the streets or after a few weeks in a Nightingale hospital staffed by St Johns Ambulance or airline cabin staff - so they'd have died there pretty quickly.

That child antibody report is good info. 6.9% children of healthcare workers have antibodies and 50% symptomatic, yet previously research said 12% of healthcare workers (16% care home workers) had antibodies. So that continues to back up the theory that children are less likely to catch it as well as less likely to get symptoms. Actually nearly half as likely to catch it and only half get symptoms.