WHO expect pandemic to be over in 2 years

[mummabear1967]

www.itv.com/news/2020-08-21/world-health-organization-chief-hopes-coronavirus-pandemic-will-be-over-in-two-years

Even if this pandemic does run into 2022, we won’t be stuck with restrictions until then, right? We will be back to normality to some extent? Not sure I could deal with another two years of this crap.

I think the WHO's criteria for saying it's over will be a lot stricter than, for instance, those of individual governments who will be desperate to say it's behind them. I therefore doubt we'll have the same level of restrictions in two years' time. I think they are talking about it beyond completely under control.

I had a look at how long it took for the WHO to say the Ebola epidemic was over, and it was three years. The press really quietened down a long time before the end of that (I appreciate the much smaller scale) as it was already quite under control in most places.

I do despair when people talk about uni students missing out on freshers week. Wander round a graveyard in Northern France and then understand what we asked of our children and young people, what they gave up.

@toodlepipsqueaks

I think the WHO's criteria for saying it's over will be a lot stricter than, for instance, those of individual governments who will be desperate to say it's behind them. I therefore doubt we'll have the same level of restrictions in two years' time. I think they are talking about it beyond completely under control.

I had a look at how long it took for the WHO to say the Ebola epidemic was over, and it was three years. The press really quietened down a long time before the end of that (I appreciate the much smaller scale) as it was already quite under control in most places.

That's interesting. I do remember those hottie scenes of Ebola patients and a second outbreak making the news.

But I agree I dont remember it being 3 years.

Perhaps 19 months from first reports until it dwindled out?

@Morfin

I do despair when people talk about uni students missing out on freshers week. Wander round a graveyard in Northern France and then understand what we asked of our children and young people, what they gave up.

Oh ffs. I have wandered round many a graveyard in northern France and I absolutely appreciate what those people did for future generations. I can still empathise with the young people of today who will miss out, not just on fucking Freshers week btw - you know on actual jobs and careers and things?

Two years is what's left of my childrens' (KS4) education. It feels like a very long time right now.

children's

I get the feeling kids are missing out.

My ds starts college this year. He won't get to join clubs, hang in the common room, mix with mates from different courses in the canteen etc.

For me that was a big part of the experience.

Of course they'll 'survive' and obviously getting the education is the priority.

But following guidance and knowing why it's there and that it's for the best doesn't mean we cant also empathise or feel sad our children's experiences will be different to ours.

Two years sounds about right - flu pandemics are usually 12-18 months (Spanish Flu was just over 2 years).

2 years has been seen as the length for awhile and will be a worldwide one depending on when it starts

And why on earth would it mutate to be deadlier?

2 years is whole world. A year to get vaccines out to most vulnerable and another year to roll out to all. It's optimistic. And other things will return to normal and on safer ways (if people can learn to do normal things in a SD way 🙄) before then.

Well we will just have to suck it up. Yes it’s bit sad our kids aren’t having the time of their lives but they will get over it. We’re not even in lockdown down so most restrictions are just inconvenient more than anything.

People live through war and famine in some parts of the world. Even in the UK we had bombs and food rationing. All this ‘quality of life’ stuff is a very modern, entitled and privileged position to take. Take a wider view!

Spanish flu died out as you either survived it or didn't so heard immunity developed. I dint realise until researching today that the second wave killed young healthy people and they predict covid 19 to do the same ☹

This is hilarious, where do people get this stuff from?
There's absolutely no evidence that covid is going to behave anything like an influenza virus.

We’re not even in lockdown down so most restrictions are just inconvenient more than anything.

The company DH worked for for years went under yesterday, he was spared as he's self employed so has had since March to get used to not working
Friends in another company have just been made redundant.
Yes, its a bit inconvenient, that's one way of putting it!

I think financial reality will start to bite when furlough ends and people will find themselves a lot less risk averse when its the roof over their heads at stake.

For now everyone seems happy to let certain sectors bear the financial brunt because they are seen as non essential (to everyone but the millions whose livelihoods they are).

@kittensarecute I am genuinely sorry you are struggling. I am interested to know what it is you (and @mummabear1967) are finding so difficult in the current situation.
I have had my mum and two friends inside my house (not at the same time) during lockdown and that has been enough for me. But everyone is different and I am on the autistic spectrum. My life feels mostly back to normal. Clearly yours isn't.
You don't have to answer but I send out sympathies x

It's interesting people thinking that 2 years is bearable, weve already done 6 months. While I want to be optimistic, there are certain things that feel really out of reach, and while for most, not going to a festival, a theatre, or not going to a football match is a small sacrifice, for the thousands of people who's livelihoods are involved in those industries, it will be catastrophic.

@Itswindytoday - I daresay they will cope, just as the rest of us who are unemployed have to. However, you know perfectly well my comment was aimed at those who are missing out on attending festivals etc., not those who are employed in those sectors.

@Hyperfish101

Well we will just have to suck it up. Yes it’s bit sad our kids aren’t having the time of their lives but they will get over it. We’re not even in lockdown down so most restrictions are just inconvenient more than anything.

People live through war and famine in some parts of the world. Even in the UK we had bombs and food rationing. All this ‘quality of life’ stuff is a very modern, entitled and privileged position to take. Take a wider view!

I like this. Very sensible and made me think too.

I've just got on with it but your words summed it up well

@NiceGerbil

Oh lord I just switched to the v festival on BBC.

Massive crowds dancing so happily.

We have lost so much, we really have. Different personalities like different things. Like the simple thing of going out for music and dancing, and the simple joy that brings to so many people. For some people, that is what they live for, their love.

The guilt trips are so dismissive of the enormous sacrifices being made.

Perhaps this might finally tame the monster that Glastonbury has become.

I’m pretty sure we can all understand that this has been a shit six months for 99% of people. Telling people to “walk round the graveyards of France” is actually ridiculous - are you aware that things can be hard, even if it’s not a world war?! No one at all has said “this is worse than being in a war”.

Do people like this say “there’s children who can’t even GO to school!!” when their kid tells them they got pushed over at playtime? No, probably not, so why they think no one can feel upset or disappointed about what the virus has taken from them because we’re not in WW2 is beyond me. I completely understand the frustration, but come on.

At the same time, posters saying “it’s killed the weak, I’ve always said this, I’m right” are just weirdly satisfied with themselves. Like do you want a medal? I think literally everyone was aware it was going to kill unwell and elderly people. You’re not some amazing scientist because you came to the same conclusion everyone else did.

How do you know only a small percentage of the population has had it? To know that, everyone would have to be tested.

They can estimate from antibody studies how many people are likely to have had it. But even so, there is no guarantee of lasting immunity if you have had it. It is too early to tell

I suspect you will eventually be surprised how many people have had it. And you're sure the restrictions helped. They didn't help the 10,000+ elderly dead in care homes, the 10,000+ dead from lack of medical care or the 6,000+ dead who were suddenly ill and died, too afraid to go to A&E in case they caught the virus.

But without lockdown those numbers would have been far higher

That's without counting the ongoing extra suicides the restrictions caused. Or the extra domestic abuse of women and violence against children.Then there's the murders. On and on it goes

But again, without lockdown those numbers would have been higher

Imagine if the virus had been left uncontrolled back in March. We would have had over half a million dead within a matter of weeks. Imagine the suffering then. Hospitals and mortuaries would have been overwhelmed. Thousands, ten of thousands even, would have died alone at home or even in the streets, without medical care at all. The police and social services would have been overwhelmed too. Any of them in contact with the virus would have had to self isolate. Compared to now the scale of suffering would have been unimaginable. What then for people with mental health problems or victims of domestic abuse?

A close relative of mine is a social worker and precisely because of lockdown she has still been able to do her job. These services, including mental health, have been operational throughout lockdown. Without lockdown they would have collapsed

Remember the graphs in March and April. Without lockdown, they would have climbed and climbed ...imagine that

We coped for 6 years during the war, 2 years is nothing. But we can't guarantee it'll be done in 2 years.

Two years for the whole world I would imagine. Wealthier countries will get through this a lot sooner and the dooms-monger Mumsnetters will have to find something else to wet their pants and get hysterical over. Covid won't matter if they themselves feel safe, the poor people in the poorer nations, won't even have a second thought.

@eaglejulesk

Well said *@LoveLastMinutesAndLostEvenings*.

Honestly, some people on MN are so dramatic. We are lucky to have never had to go through anything like this before in our lifetimes, but past generations had to cope with worse - now it's our turn. How social distancing and wearing a mask and not being able to attend festivals etc. for a few years can destroy anyone's life is beyond me

The spoilt generation.

My dd is about to start university. No freshers week, in “bubbles” with limited social interaction of any form. These should be the best years of her life and frankly I am fed up of smug people telling us we should try to embrace this as some sort of ‘new normal’

If the worst thing that happens to your daughter is missing out on a year of socialising you have a lot to be thankful for. You both need to work on your resilience.

@Namechangr9000

It's interesting people thinking that 2 years is bearable, weve already done 6 months. While I want to be optimistic, there are certain things that feel really out of reach, and while for most, not going to a festival, a theatre, or not going to a football match is a small sacrifice, for the thousands of people who's livelihoods are involved in those industries, it will be catastrophic.

Football is still going ahead.

I do think parts of hospitality and events industry will need to be subsidised for a couple of years if we want them to return when it's safe.