WHO expect pandemic to be over in 2 years

[mummabear1967]

www.itv.com/news/2020-08-21/world-health-organization-chief-hopes-coronavirus-pandemic-will-be-over-in-two-years

Even if this pandemic does run into 2022, we won’t be stuck with restrictions until then, right? We will be back to normality to some extent? Not sure I could deal with another two years of this crap.

2022 is very optimistic for a few reasons..1 this virus is untested in winter which could give it opportunities to mutate further and become more deadly....2, if it mutates further any research, could be invalid and slim hopes of a vaccine may disappear completely...3 if the WHO says anything take it with a tiny pinch of salt it is their fault that the virus has spread as it has

@Touca

But then other scientists believe Covid will be just one ongoing wave I'm in British Columbia and we seem to already be at the start of a second wave.

New cases were down to single digits per day after the curve was initially flattened, but we're up to around 80 per day after bars and restaurants reopened and the second wave looks set to be bigger than the first.

Genuinely don’t understand this. On what grounds is the second wave looking likely to be bigger then the first? Is BC doing nothing to mitigate the spread? Is there no contact tracing? No social distancing? No improved treatment? I’m quite sure cases will go up (and down) but I’m really struggling to see how people can be so sure that we will be hit worse second time around when we are preparing for it instead of being caught off guard.

Well said @LoveLastMinutesAndLostEvenings.

Honestly, some people on MN are so dramatic. We are lucky to have never had to go through anything like this before in our lifetimes, but past generations had to cope with worse - now it's our turn. How social distancing and wearing a mask and not being able to attend festivals etc. for a few years can destroy anyone's life is beyond me

[quote Guylan] Social distancing does nothing. Do you catch Influenza every year? How many times have you caught Influenza? Covid 19 has very sadly mainly shortened the lives of people who were the weakest in our society. It's done its worst. It won't get stronger. It will get weaker. The people catching it now are able to shrug it off with very few symptoms. The virus is doing nothing very unusual. There will be no second spike. If you were frightened by the media, have you not seen the media recently? Four times as many are dying of dementia than Covid. Did you believe the media then but not now?

Aside from a lot of incorrect claims in your comment, people should be aware of the possible long term complications of CoVid in previously fit and healthy people. www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/long-haulers-covid-19-recognition-support-groups-symptoms/615382/[/quote]
Aside from a lot of incorrect claims which were what?

@eaglejulesk I imagine the hundreds of thousands of people who’s livelihoods depend on crowds, close contact and festivals etc will feel their lives have been fairly destroyed if this lasts for a few years.

@kittensarecute

You may well be following the SD rules atm but you stated that you cannot and will not accept SD rules for much longer and you will not live like this for two years.
So what is your alternative....break/ignore the rules when you get fed up with the inconvenience and go on to infect other people that are making these sacrifices? And you still say you’re not selfish and irresponsible?

@Whatthebloodyell

I cannot and will not accept social distancing for much longer, it has destroyed my life and taken away everything that brings me pleasure.

that sounds quite dramatic! I don’t think it is too much of an a problem to continue some form of social
Distancing indefinitely. So seeing friends and family = ok, but sitting next to a stranger in a bus/at the theatre/down the pub is not ok. Social distancing doesn’t have to mean zero social contact, just reduced social contact.

It is very easy to say “I don’t think it is too much of a problem to continue some form of social distancing indefinitely “ if you are married or in a relationship and have your children with you or don’t have children. My dd is about to start university. No freshers week, in “bubbles” with limited social interaction of any form. These should be the best years of her life and frankly I am fed up of smug people telling us we should try to embrace this as some sort of ‘new normal’

[quote Itswindytoday]@eaglejulesk I imagine the hundreds of thousands of people who’s livelihoods depend on crowds, close contact and festivals etc will feel their lives have been fairly destroyed if this lasts for a few years.[/quote]
I hear what you are saying @Itswindytoday, there are a whole lot of industries that are at risk of imploding because of Covid19. Where I work is fragile. If it falls apart (which it could) and I lose my job then I will lose my home. It's a fact that many of us are facing. Yes, livelihoods will be destroyed, there is no doubt about that. But we are 6 months on from lockdown, it is such early days and we can't just open up life as it was before, it's too soon. We just don't know enough about the virus yet.

[quote Ilovemypantry]**@kittensarecute

You may well be following the SD rules atm but you stated that you cannot and will not accept SD rules for much longer and you will not live like this for two years.
So what is your alternative....break/ignore the rules when you get fed up with the inconvenience and go on to infect other people that are making these sacrifices? And you still say you’re not selfish and irresponsible?[/quote]
Stop being so horrible to me, please, you don't know me or my situation.

@kittensarecute

Everyone’s situation is different and everyone will be experiencing different problems but ultimately everyone must accept that there is a world pandemic and we all need to stick to the advice and instructions in order to get through it as quickly as possible.

I don’t think that’s a second wave per se is if. It’s a spike of the first wave.
'Waves' arent a scientific term when it comes to increases or decreases in infections, but it's being reported on as the likely start of a second wave here. We went from having almost eradicated new cases to a sudden increase, steeper than that of the first 'wave'.

@OhTheTrees

2 years seems a remarkably manageable amount of time, somehow. I am always surprised that we've already done 6 months, as I'd probably guess at about 10 weeks if I had to take a stab without knowing or looking at a calendar, so time is moving weirdly quickly.

Hopefully some of you are right, and that 2 years will become even shorter as things move forward.

I think my inner negative voice was assuming this may never end, so 2 years sounds great!

I'd agree with this. It isn't a selfish point of view at all.

@itswindytoday

www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-update-august-13-1.5685525

I think people got complacent. Our first wave wasnt too bad and we didnt have to go full lockdown. Yes we're doing contact tracing and social distancing but we were better off when bars and restaurants were closed.

Lots of people on here seem very sure of things. Are you scientists? Virus done it’s worst? I doubt it tbh.

Going forward, some restrictions will have to remain. It’s hardly terrible. A mask. Sitting apart. Compared to lockdown it’s a breeze., virus isn’t going away. Just managing it sensibly is all that can be done. I’m not sure how current restrictions are causing such hardship? People can meet, go shopping, eat out etc. We’re not in lockdown anymore.

They won’t allow uncontrolled virus.

@Hyperfish101

Lots of people on here seem very sure of things. Are you scientists? Virus done it’s worst? I doubt it tbh.

Going forward, some restrictions will have to remain. It’s hardly terrible. A mask. Sitting apart. Compared to lockdown it’s a breeze., virus isn’t going away. Just managing it sensibly is all that can be done. I’m not sure how current restrictions are causing such hardship? People can meet, go shopping, eat out etc. We’re not in lockdown anymore.

They won’t allow uncontrolled virus.

Agree lots of false certainty about!

I am sure of nothing, except so far the virus has changed much.

I remain unsure, and therefore concerned.

Oops, should read 'has not changed much'

@RaspberryRuff

They said under 2 years, and bear in mind that’s the pandemic overall, not just how it affects us. I suspect we will be largely back to normal here a fair time before the pandemic is declared officially over.

We’re getting there slowly but surely

Yes this is an important distinction. We had the virus earlier than some other countries. Some countries e.g. in south America are still in the first "wave" of the virus. So we may be over it here before the worldwide pandemic is over.

I think 2 years sounds a long time because of the actual timescale.

But what we have to do and community transmission should be waning all that time.

It's not going to be here and suddenly disappear overnight.

I'm no expert but my understanding is we had first wave. Currently we have hotspots. Winter may bring another burst of epidemics but still localised. But they'll be higher than ones we have now.

Then next March time as we all go outdoors etc again cases will again begin to fall and managing it becomes easier again.

Eventually cases are low enough that we need to rest and trace and isolate but we manage to get on top of it quickly enough and transmission chains stop.

So the first 12-18 months are 'worse' than the end when we are just stopping final cases.

So I'm thinking by this time next year we are through the worst and Chris Whitty seemed to suggest the same in a briefing once.

Has there been any independent study as to how many of the ‘excess deaths’ we have had have been due to mental health issues that have been caused by lockdown etc, abuse, denied treatment by the NHS etc etc?

People’s mental health certainly seems to have been ignored by many on this thread and their attitude towards those who may be struggling with restrictions that have been put in place is pretty disgusting and dismissive.

2 years seems a remarkably manageable amount of time, somehow.

I think that depends on your age. 2 years to a healthy young person isn’t a lot, but to an elderly person it could mean this is it for the rest of their lives

The stats definitely don’t support the “what if lockdown killed more than it saved?” narrative. Deaths spiked very high in early lockdown and then came back down to normal levels and then below, and for younger age groups they came down to below normal even earlier. There’s an argument to be had about long term effects of underdiagnosis and treatment during lockdown (though my family and I have been having appropriate NHS cancer screening and treatment during the last few months, so I’m not sure it’s as much of a blanket problem as it’s sometimes portrayed), but there’s no support whatsoever for the narrative of a short term epidemic of deaths due to murder, suicide and neglect.
This is a graph which looks exactly as it should if a dangerous epidemic disease, not always tested for in the first few weeks, ran riot in the vulnerable population before being brought under control by measures which also had the side effect of reducing deaths from accidents, homicides, and other contagious diseases like flu and meningitis.

@Ugzbugz

Spanish flu died out as you either survived it or didn't so heard immunity developed. I dint realise until researching today that the second wave killed young healthy people and they predict covid 19 to do the same ☹

Ffs it's not the same as flu. They're not predicting that at all!

@latticechaos

I saw that quote from WHO, I thought two years seemed alright, better than my miserable predictions!

At the start of lockdown I reassured the boys that life would go back to normal soon and the country would get the virus in control. That we just needed to help stop the spread. My six year old said “nah, it’ll take ages; about two years”. He wasn’t bothered, just natter if fact. I will never forget gulping. My three year old is more of a conspiracy theorist 😂

The government stats are that for every 3 people who died of covid, 2 died due to the knock-on effects on other causes.

I have no idea why the WHO guy said 2 years. Fine if 2 years till a vaccine, otherwise why would it run its course with all the social distancing/lockdowns? Maybe it’s less than 2 years in Sweden where they have allowed controlled spread (and deaths have been in single figures for a while). Sweden may be a large country but 85% of the population live in urban areas, with three large cities.

They have experienced one tenth of the deaths that the Imperial model predicted, over half of which are care home residents whose life expectancy was already just 1 year. Obviously, it is sad that this was shortened.

The economy has been hit but much less than half the impact here, and much lower debt for our children to pay off. Their children have been in school throughout with no masks and with childhood happiness ratings far above ours.

Outside the care home sector, deaths have been low and absolutely minimal under 50s.

So their children have an education, a social life, jobs to go into and less depression. I would take that any day over what we have here and so would my elderly relatives.

@NiceGerbil

Oh lord I just switched to the v festival on BBC.

Massive crowds dancing so happily.

We have lost so much, we really have. Different personalities like different things. Like the simple thing of going out for music and dancing, and the simple joy that brings to so many people. For some people, that is what they live for, their love.

The guilt trips are so dismissive of the enormous sacrifices being made.

So dramatic!

Other generations went to war. Other countries are still at war.

All we have to do is stay at home when needed and social distance and people can’t even do that.