Why isn’t there more deaths atm?

[Mummypig2020]

Just that really. Obviously cases are going up and have been for a few weeks. Surely there would be at least an increase of people in hospitals by now at least? Or in a week or so are we going to suddenly have hundreds of deaths again?

I think the answer is that nobody really knows www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/14/britains-coronavirus-death-rate-is-down-but-the-unanswered-question-is-why

Many of the positive results are in younger hosts.
They have stronger resilience unless unhealthy though the long-term affects can be brutal even if youth is on your side.

Is it not because now it’s swept through care homes and older / more vulnerable people, the people who are getting it are younger and healthier and less likely to die from it?

I think it’s a combination of things:
*scientists know more about it, so know who is more at risk and more about transmission methods enabling greater prevention

• more vulnerable people know they’re more vulnerable/at greater risk so are shielding/being more cautious than at the start of the outbreak
• mainly younger people are catching it compared to earlier in the outbreak, so largely less at risk of serious complications
• many care homes are restricting visiting - less risk of spreading to vulnerable populations
• widespread testing, more asymptomatic/mild cases being picked up, so isolating at home
• clear guidelines from employers/govt enabling people to stay home (often paid) while isolating due to contact/confirmed case, whereas there may have been a perceived “grey area” for some people
• medics have more experience, so know more how to treat it I.e. early oxygen, and ventilation less effective
• sufficient ppe in most healthcare environments now and greater understanding of when/how to use it, so less cross contamination
• greater public understanding, therefore more hand washing/mask wearing etc. And less hugging/kissing etc. Which will reduce viral load
• seasonality - it’s U.K. summer (and what a hot one it’s been) so more people are meeting outside and our immune systems are more effective in summer plus higher levels of vitamin D which seems to be a factor

It’s just so confusing. We had it right before lockdown.

I want to try and be more positive but when people scream “second wave” still it’s horrible :(

The rise over the last month is nothing like what we saw in March.

Additionally I believe treatment for Covid-19 has improved. In the early stages of the pandemic the NHS got it very wrong.

Also less submissions to hospital, only 40 cases in 24 hours on the 8th August.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/08/Covid-Publication-13-08-2020.xlsx

Of the whole of England

@Emeraldshamrock

Many of the positive results are in younger hosts. They have stronger resilience unless unhealthy though the long-term affects can be brutal even if youth is on your side.

I think you are being unfair about the "brutal" long-term effects. It's way too soon to assess long term effects. Almost all infections have an after effect that takes time to retreat.

We are finding more asymptomatic and mild cases that where probably there in the same numbers (if not more)during the peak when only the most serious cases were being tested so where not counted. These people haven't needed medical treatment and have recovered by themselves and effectively been missed off the count. I doubt we will never know how many have been infected during the peak of it. To me it pushes the fact that although for some the virus has disastrous consequences for the majority its quite mild.

The people who are being tested as positive appear to be younger and are a) asymptomatic, or b) very mild.
The people who are dying seem to be mainly those who have been sick for a long time.
This virus disproportionately affects older or more vulnerable people.
Things are not yet 'back to normal', because the Gov fear a 'second spike' especially as Autumn approaches. The Gov were criticised for being too slow before, so now they are trying to act fast, whenever there is a local spike in infections.

People are getting tested sooner, and it appears to be younger people now, with not so many underlying health conditions

I also believe it’s milder as people have been SD, wearing masks etc so whilst they are getting it, it’s a mild version

"In the new normality, more young people are becoming infected with the coronavirus. The reports that are produced by the Carlos III institute, which include diagnoses from all methods, and not just PCR tests, confirm a significant fall in the average age of new positives. For example, the report issued on April 3 by the research institute showed the average age of those diagnosed as infected as between 50 and 59. However, the latest report, published on August 6, shows an average of 30 to 39 years old. Spanish Health Minister Salvador Illa has recently stated that the average age of new contagions is 40, whereas during the peak of the pandemic it was over 60."

english.elpais.com/society/2020-08-17/more-cases-among-young-people-and-a-lower-death-rate-how-the-coronavirus-epidemic-has-changed-in-spain.html

Similar in other European countries, including the UK.

The doctors find out what works and what doesn’t, so treatment becomes more effective.

More young people are becoming infected by coronavirus

No they were always infected/infectious but as its mostly mild symptoms or no symptoms at all they would never have been tested early on

Treatments are getting better, particularly with the severest cases

www.healthline.com/health-news/covid-19-mortality-is-going-down-in-icus-what-this-means-for-the-pandemic#The-bottom-line

I while a go I read a piece that said that there were 6 different strains, 4 relatively mild ones that could be dealt with at home and 2 that tend to require hospital intervention If it's the less serious strains which are being transmitted then there are less serious symptoms and less hospitalisation.

*I read a while ago...

I wondered if it was mainly because it was largely young people getting it now?

I find it really chilling how many people could have been inadvertently spreading it all over the place a few months back at the start. How many times have all of us felt a bit blugh and popped 2 paracetamol and soldiered on with our day. God knows how many people did that and it was Covid. It chills me to think about it :(

There has also been a significant drop in ICU mortality as healthcare professionals get better at treating the most serious cases (more treatment options available, more knowledge of the disease etc).
mobile.twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1293243046058954752

I very much doubt there will be a second wave. I also think there will be more suicides due to the effect this is all having on mental health now. We need to start getting back to normal ASAP.

The vulnerable are a lot more protected now and tbh they were the ones mainly at risk. It has a high chance of survival amongst ''healthy'' hosts. Plus more tests = more infections being discovered so I'm not quite sure why there is daily hysteria over the rates if hospitalisations are down

I while a go I read a piece that said that there were 6 different strains, 4 relatively mild ones that could be dealt with at home and 2 that tend to require hospital intervention If it's the less serious strains which are being transmitted then there are less serious symptoms and less hospitalisation.

That's really interesting

The death numbers you can put down to better treatment but the dramatic drop in hospital admissions? 40 in the whole of england now? Back in April it was in the 1000’s. I’m hoping it’s not just because it’s summer and autumn we are going to see the hospitals fill up again.

It must be those mandatory magic masks; they certainly keep Mumsnet alive.