Why isn’t there more deaths atm?

[Mummypig2020]

Just that really. Obviously cases are going up and have been for a few weeks. Surely there would be at least an increase of people in hospitals by now at least? Or in a week or so are we going to suddenly have hundreds of deaths again?

@Alex50

Yes, people are mixing more and more, myself included. Perhaps that will continue unless we’re all completely back to normal without any rise, which would be amazing, but given everything I’ve read and given other countries’ experiences, I don’t think that’s likely.

I think the way in which Covid spreads is very devious in that it lulls people into a false sense of security by circulating widely amongst a population before the impact is really felt. Firstly, large numbers of people - especially the young - are assymptomatic, and, secondly, even the average person with the infection won’t pass it on, with infections tending to occur silently via super-spreading events, but for a small number (but a sufficient number to cause havoc if allowed to spread unabated) of mainly older people, it is very serious, even deadly. It’s not like Ebola or MERS, which is clearly more deadly if infected but which is easier to contain precisely because they are so very nasty.

Presumably they are still counting hospital admissions the same way as they were before?

Trafford those cases will still presumably have Covid on the death cert as cause of death, which is probably a better way to o count deaths than just counting those with a positive test. I think the mistake has been that the headline death figures have always been limited to those where there has been a positive test, about 10k fewer than those with covid on the death cert.

Well actually there can be a bit of uncertainty around deaths with Covid. It is a new illness we don't completely understand. In the elderly,in hospital or a care setting, it is possible for someone to be off colour for a while - then eventually there is a diagnosis of covid. But it isn't clear what system exactly is affected that is causing them to be unwell.

Often elderly people have more than one thing the matter with them. Is the covid? or their kidneys,or their heart that is the main cause of death. If there is pathology in multiple areas, which one caused the death? Sometimes it is clear ,sometimes less so.

It is also possible to have a negative test with symptoms that look a lot like covid and to test multiple times and still the result is negative (30% results are negative). So then if someone dies,and you strongly suspect covid,nonetheless that would not go down as a covid death.

It does feel as though the government want to make political capital out of ambiguity,so they would like the numbers to go one way when it suits, and then they would like to flip them another way when they feel like it.

So today's deaths were in fact 81 (diagnosis within 60 days). I don't think we can tell the virus to stop being lethal after 28 days, it doesn't understand. So deaths are not actually as low as the impression given from 2 yesterday and 17 today.

The virus seems to have around 4 degrees Centigrade as an ideal environment.

And it transmits well when people are close together indoors- as they might be, say in an English school in winter.

What date range were the 81 announced deaths, I presume some were backdated?

While 28 days might not be longer enough there does have to be a cut off. The ridiculous way PHE were recording the deaths was also skewing the figures as it appeared that no one would ever recover.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Today's deaths were 18!

Where is your info from @herecomesthsun ?

Four degrees? In a school? 🤔

@HesterShaw1

Four degrees? In a school? 🤔

Err yes, especially as I am going to make sure the windows are open for ventilation. Schools are either freezing or boiling hot, that is the law!

@Alex50

It’s not just about deaths, hospital admissions are really low 33 new admissions on the 8th August in the whole of England’s hospitals, 0 in all of London.

That is low and good to read.

Number of deaths in English hospitals for Covid on the 21st August is 2

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/08/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-22-August-2020.xlsx

@Alex50 that's yesterday's, today's was 18.

I don't agree with the theory that it's already swept through all the old people, there are loads that have no time had it yet. The last estimate I saw was that around 5 million people had had it, in a country of 80 million. Although who really knows how many have had it, it could be more or less than the estimates scientists come out with.

not had it yet

No today was 2 in English hospitals, it’s on the link.

@Alex50

Sorry today is 22nd, its 17

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths?areaType=nation&areaName=England

here

I’m only talking about hospital deaths in England, I think your link is deaths overall

I would strongly suggest you look again

Still low but not 2

It doesn’t actually tell you where the other 15 are from, some care home, some home deaths?

It’s on the link if you look in the tabs at the top and scroll along to the 21st 2 deaths.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/08/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-22-August-2020.xlsx

Some of those deaths are from March though. They didn't all happen in the last 24 hours.

Sorry.In fact i misread, the 81 is the unrestricted number of deaths with covid. The 60 day numbers are 51 today and 79 yeasterday.

Oh and this is just England

18 was the all settings figure, hospital was 7 (6england, 1 Scotland I think). The other 11 were added by phe and sound like mainly historical deaths that were removed yesterday and added again today. Rp131 on twitter is a good source for analysing figures

mobile.twitter.com/RP131/status/1297197512462409729