Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 15

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 15 of the daily updates

Resource links:

Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, LAs, English regions
Slides & data UK govt pressers
UK added daily by PHE & DHSC
PHE Surveillance report infections & watchlists every Thursday with sep. infographic
ONS England infection surveillance report
ONS UK death stats each Tuesday
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Daily ECDC country detail UK
Worldometer UK page
Plot FT graphs compare countries deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Covidly.com world summary & graphs
Plot COVID Graphs Our World in Data test positivity etc

We welcome factual, data driven, and civil discussions from all contributors 📈 📉 📊 👍

@Boys3 Could the missing 154,000 be FE college students? They're not usually includes in statistics on school students.

I agree that you can't calculate the rate of transmission in schools in June/July and apply it across the board for September because of class sizes being bigger, etc. But I think the overall point they're making is that rates of transmission appear to have been very low, which is as good as you can hope for really. They will just have to see how things go in the autumn. I'm hoping they get the saliva tests rolled out to schools ASAP, as that would surely help.

The missing child numbers - some schools had some kids in the morning and others in the afternoon as well as week by week mentioned above; one near us had a mix with different groups on different days plus the vulnerable and key worker kids.

It's all so contradictory

Plus research on mh in 12-13 year olds being better during lockdown, while telling the nation their well-being is at risk.

Coronavirus: Teens' anxiety levels dropped during pandemic, study finds www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53884401

The missing piece of the question is if transmission was low due to low community rates.

Transmission was low in hospitals and care homes, lower for that period.

That study is the opposite to what happened here. He’s not anxious at school though, not anxious at home. But markedly more motivated, positive and happier in school and not learning behind a screen.

I’m sure he’s not alone. Perhaps the question should be around other measures not just anxiety,

I think I just hate this being preached to by the Government about schools, as it reminds me of being told ‘business as usual in the UK’ back in March when we were told that we were not going into lockdown because of herd immunity and avoiding a second wave.

The same with this latest school study, it is of marginal interest, and should not be used to ‘reassure’ as it has little bearing on going back in September. We actually don’t know how many cases those schools opening were linked to, as children are generally asymptomatic. What would have been more relevant is if any of those schools were linked to a higher rate of community transmission. However as the schools were all very spread out this wasn’t the experiment to test that.

Personally I think that there is enough evidence that schools can reopen but with greater safety measures. We also need a much better test and trace, now if we were told how much better that was (in facts and not propaganda) then I would be massively more reassured. Finding a quicker less invasive saliva test that could be done on children weekly would also be massively reassuring.

Given that Y11 -13 in school are pretty much adults I predict rocketing infection rates after schools return. All the news reports focus on primary students.
I'm in FE, teaching mostly adults (19+) and am being told that if I deliver staff training (to adults) I'm limited to 6 in my room but if other learners 12 (which is the max I teach anyway). I'm busy trying to point out the illogic of this.

And about mental wellbeing - whilst I know there are more reports of people being referred for mental health problems in the UK, there are some very interesting evidence that for many mental wellbeing is better. I am not surprised about teenagers, their lives have high expectations of ‘looking good’ and being instagram amazing in their lives - and lockdown took away much of that pressure. Also many children find school very tough.

Most interesting to me also is the finding that there were significantly less premature babies born during lockdown. They do not know exactly why, but having pregnant mothers not have to commute to jobs, under less stress is probably a big part of that.

In October, 54% of 13 to 14-year-old girls and 26% of boys of the same age said they felt anxious.
When surveyed in May - several weeks after schools shut to most pupils and nationwide lockdown restrictions came into force - the proportion dropped to 45% of girls and 18% of boys.

It was a survey in May. The effects of long term screen learning and isolation from friends would be more pronounced.

The last report I read was that neither the saliva test nor the LamPORE rapid swab tests have been properly benchmarked to check their accuracy

Anyone know if this has been done recently ?

A gargle test is being studied in Germany & Austria,
but these studies have some way to go before the test would be approved for use, even if it is sufficiently accurate
( and then more time if the Uk then wants to roll this out in schools)

The NHS have also just started trialling a 10 minute breath test!
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nhs-trials-10-minute-coronavirus-breath-test-hl6w0lvzw

Wow that would be bloody useful!

Can anyone answer, when a SAGE scientist (said he was there in personal capacity but kept using 'we') is on R4 saying there is weak evidence for the use of masks in schools, does he just mean "no one's done a proper study yet"?

I really don't get it. They are supposed to wear them on school buses but that in itself is a bubble. They meet those same children (and driver) day in , day out. The whole defence of no masks in school is the belief (pretty spurious in secondaries) that they are in contact with the same small number of people all the time,as per their ruling about offices.

I sometimes wonder whether it is just to say something different from the WHO!

@Piggywaspushed

I really don't get it. They are supposed to wear them on school buses but that in itself is a bubble. They meet those same children (and driver) day in , day out. The whole defence of no masks in school is the belief (pretty spurious in secondaries) that they are in contact with the same small number of people all the time,as per their ruling about offices.

I wonder if that's because it falls under the bracket of public transport and the rules for that are face masks?

Are the kids bubbles on the bus the same as they are in their school classes and year groups?

I'm in the school building meeting staff and chatting as we sort out classes and it feels wrong to not be wearing a mask tbh!

I think in total we have about 100 staff.

No they can't be. That would mean that all children in the same year group/maths set etc live in the same area of a town so get the same school bus!

No, they distinctly say they are not public transport although someone (the driver??) seems to be in charge of getting them to sit 'bubbles' on the bus ... that'll work...

There have been various comments from ministers that when on a public bus or shops you are meeting strangers. School buses andd classroom tend to have the same group of people so masks are not required....

No, they distinctly say they are not public transport although someone (the driver??) seems to be in charge of getting them to sit 'bubbles' on the bus ... that'll work...

Even if that were possible, they would be immediately next to those outside their bubble.... unless the bus has lots of spare seats (and my daughter often has to stand due to lack of seats!) It’s a dog’s dinner...

School buses andd classroom tend to have the same group of people so masks are not required....

True, but then let’s drop the pretence that the “bubble” is any less than the entire school.... There are 1,500 pupils at my daughter’s school!

And they’ll be packed far more closely on a bus than they would be even in a small classroom!

"True, but then let’s drop the pretence that the “bubble” is any less than the entire school.... There are 1,500 pupils at my daughter’s school!

And they’ll be packed far more closely on a bus than they would be even in a small classroom!"

Quite but it does suggest the government doesn't care if bubbles get infected as long as the resulting cases are easy to trace.....

@Piggywaspushed

No, they distinctly say they are not public transport although someone (the driver??) seems to be in charge of getting them to sit 'bubbles' on the bus ... that'll work...

Really? What are they then? They aren't private are they lol

Some mish mash in the middle 🤨

No way are kids going to stay in class bubbles on the bus. Unrealistic.