New outbreak in New Zealand

[CKBJ]

Breaking news outbreak in a retirement village in Auckland. Residents developed respiratory type illness. Auckland have gone into level 3 while the outbreak is assessed. After over 100 days of being virus free and their strict measures, what has broken down to allow this?

I am living in Western Australia, where we have had no community transmission for four months, even longer than NZ. Our border is shut. Anyone coming in (Permanent residents and citizens only) has two weeks hotel quarantine, under guard. We currently have three cases, all in quarantine. Life here is normal, everything is open, very few people are still wearing masks. Life is pretty good! We are all aware our good luck may not last, but we are all very happy about how things are going here compared to most of the rest of the world. So I think NZ is doing the right thing. It may not be a sustainable option for many places, and we won't be able to keep the borders closed forever, but every day we know more about how to treat covid sufferers, and every day is less illness and death, and hopefully getting closer to a vaccine. Hopefully our friends in Victoria are getting it under control too.

@mypersona Genetic analysis shows that most of our infections came from the USA

Full article here: www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12354550

"Despite the comparatively tiny size of Covid-19's incursion here, the team reported 277 separate introductions of the virus, out of the 649 cases.

Of those, they estimated a quarter led to only one other secondary case – while just 19 per cent of those introduced cases led to a chain of transmission that could be observed as a lineage."

Our scientist are doing an awesome job. And we are trusting them.

I don't think anyone here in NZ expects to stay isolated forever. But we learning more about the virus, how it spreads and how to treat it every day.

South Auckland is a very vulnerable population for many reasons. There are a lot of Pacific Islanders there who may have a genetic vulnerability. Pacifika in the US have fared badly. We need to protect them. I'm happy to do another month in level 3.

In epidemiology, a herd immunity strategy requires a vaccine

The idea of a herd immunity strategy with a virus that has killed ¾ million people globally in a few months is high risk,
especially when immunity probably only lasts a year or so and we don't know the immune % required in the population

• There is no evidence that countries like the UK have reached herd immunity with ONS / PHE finding only 7% antibodies

Recent serological surveys in high COVID epicentres in several countries have shown v high levels of antibodies:

• about 93% of the population of Iquitos, Peru

• 78% in some areas of New York City

• 50% in Mumbai slums

The NZ strategy wouldn't be practical for a high density population country like the UK, with such high international connectivity,
but it is working for NZ

Having near-zero cases makes it much easier to squash the occasional few cases that will inevitably pop up

• Much easier than the UK's whackamole with thousands of active cases

They should be able to quickly return to normal

New Zealand's economy is doing a lot better than the UK's and is predicted to have a much lower drop in GDP for 2020

Low density population countries have other options that other countries can't try

e.g. Sweden has 5-12 x the deaths / million of its Scandinavian neighbours with similar low population and culture who locked down
They have similar predicted drop in GDP too
Sweden's number is still "acceptable", not disastrous

However, the UK having multiples of its current total would have meant the NHS being overwhelmed and the economy in far worse meltdown

They are looking at the possibility the man was infected via cold storage/freight where he works.
Apparently this has been noted in China as a possible transmission route.
Jacinda said they would be investigating it and testing for it as a possibility.
Very sad watching my friends and family all shut down again. Some run restaurants, one is counting down to her rescheduled wedding date. Most have kids of different ages that will be home from school & daycare while working remotely.

Forgot to say I totally support it though,

Here's the link to the news on cold storage

Storage facility in Auckland where one case worked is temporarily closed, as possibility of transmission via freight is investigated. www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122423538/coronavirus-auckland-cool-storage-facility-tested-over-concern-covid19-entered-nz-via-freight?cid=app-iPhone

Did I hear that one of those diagnosed works in a refrigerated facility? Coronavirus survives/thrives for weeks below 4degrees. A package that had virus on it could easily transmit the virus if it had been kept refrigerated/frozen since being contaminated.

@neutralintelligence One of the family of four works in a cool store company. They are testing at the facility to see what comes up and have tested those he worked with and they are all in isolation. They are also looking at the genomic sequencing (not sure if I've got that term right) to try and understand the transmission.
NZ are also re-testing all those who work on the borders and at the isolation hotels. They have rolling tests anyway but are re-testing the whole 7,000 staff in one go although they haven't uncovered any links yet to travelers, border staff, or the isolation facilities.
My understanding is that there are a couple of close contacts who have now tested positive but I'm not sure if that's at the cool store.

So if its come from the storage facility are they going to put a stop to international imports so that the zero covid policy can be pursued? Or continue to stay in lockdown indefinitely to curtail community transmission?

Maybe just extra safety precautions in refrigerated environments. Filters on air con, use of gloves, larger distances between people, wearing masks.
I hope the UK learns from this before autumn/winter here.

My guess would be along the lines of what @neutralintelligence said with extra safety measures.
The lock down is so far only until midnight Friday but a lot think it will be extended. This is to give time for contact tracing, mass testing and for the genomic sequencing to be completed. If there are updates the will made along the way at the scheduled conferences but that's what they've got so far.
The press conferences are pretty good- straight to the point, happy to go over timelines, clarify points etc

The way Jacinda and team communicate so clearly and frankly is something else. Dan Andrews over in Victoria, Aus also answering every journo’s question until they literally have no more. So different to the UK.

Also like the way Jacinda approaches it as a team. Lots of references to the Team of 5million and really tries to make each person feel like they're part of it. Less of a divide and more of an inclusive approach. I think Dan tries this in Vic but not as successfully. We are NSW and I wish Gladys would take a page out if Jacinda's book!

I'm in WA and Mark Magowan is doing an absolute first class job too, communicating clearly exactly what is happening and what is required of us. We have had zero community transmission since April, and were down to one case in the state yesterday. Hopefully we will get to zero in the next day or two (fingers crossed!) We just need to defeat that absolute balloon Palmer now!

@alwayscrashinginthesamecar1 agree he has handled it really well. Seems to work a lot better as an approach to getting everyone on board rather creating a them and us situation where "we are telling you to do this". Fingers crossed for getting the numbers down to zero!

Yes, Arden, McGowan and Andrews have provided master classes in crisis leadership.

Our current opposition leader, Judith Collin, has called for Jacinda to stop doing the pressers as she thinks it's unfair exposure given our upcoming election!

It's pretty clear what her priorities are. The idea of her in charge makes me feel ill!

@Turangawaewae totally agree! Someone needs to be communicating what's going on and it makes sense it comes from the PM. Did I hear that labour have halted their campaigning at the moment?

All campaigning has been suspended. I'm not sure Judith has understood that though.

I reckon Jacinda will postpone the election which is a shame as I'd quite like it over with now. The last few weeks have been pretty brutal here politically.

It is Sweden Vs New Zealand really isn't it? Virus Free (NZ) versus Sweden - low grade herd immunity. The 2 developed countries on opposite sides of ethics.

www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12356289

More cases, including schools. Travel to Rotorua and Taupo.

It also looks like NZ will be adopting China's quarantine facility model - for locals infected with COVID in the community. Those infected will be required to go to a facility and stay there until clear.

www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/08/coronavirus-all-new-zealand-s-confirmed-covid-19-cases-to-be-put-in-quarantine-facilities-from-now-on.html

Our current opposition leader, Judith Collin, has called for Jacinda to stop doing the pressers as she thinks it's unfair exposure given our upcoming election!

It's pretty clear what her priorities are. The idea of her in charge makes me feel ill!

I agree. Does Judith not realise that she is alienating voters with her criticism, just as Simon did before her?

How do people in NZ feel about quarantining in hotels?

This is different. Recent arrivals is one thing but this is people being removed from family if they have the virus.

I do hope they get it sorted quickly and she has done a great job but too me this is a step too far.

If you had the virus and your household didn’t, would you really want to stay at home and infect them?