New outbreak in New Zealand

[CKBJ]

Breaking news outbreak in a retirement village in Auckland. Residents developed respiratory type illness. Auckland have gone into level 3 while the outbreak is assessed. After over 100 days of being virus free and their strict measures, what has broken down to allow this?

@psychomath

They're still in a better position than us though, even if they end up with similar infection levels. We're five months closer to a vaccine, and even if that doesn't work out there are better treatment options available now than there were in March, with new ideas coming out all the time. Plus a massive first wave in March would have coincided with the start of their flu season. I don't think an elimination strategy would have worked for us as we have a completely different geography and population to NZ, but for them it clearly did work well up to now.

Exactly this. Even if things get out of hand now (which they probably won’t) it will be better for it to happen now that we understand more about treatment than it would have been for it to happen 5 months ago.

Whichever way you try to cook the books, NZ comes out roses. They were always clear that there would be some flare ups.

Of course, they have decisive, effective Governance, clear, honest, accountable communication, a cohesive lockdown strategy effectively communicated (my mother got her text while I was on the phone to her, it gave us both conniptions, no way you were ignoring that text!), excellent track and trace and fast, easily accessible testing.

This hasn't happened by accident, nor by wishful thinking, dithering, and hoping for the best.

Kia Kaha Aotearoa!

I think this does highlight the problem with elimination strategy and why we should not even contemplate it here. It is just to herd to maintain. If even NZ can't maintain it with their super strict lockdown and super strict borders we have no chance here.
Plus it creates an over the top reaction by the politiians and the public to what is a tiddly tiny number of cases - 4!

If there is no vaccine (and I think there will be) then NZ is stuck forever like this - while the rest of the world gets on with achieving some sort of herd immunity and simply accepting they have to live with the virus circulating. If no vaccine, NZ are now months behind the rest of the world.

I do think there will be a vaccine and so hopefully NZ can sustain elimination and achieve it again very soon as it won't be forever but it is a risky strategy and they are reliant on the rest of the world to produce the vaccine for them. They will also be low down the list to get it as I think the idea is for heavily affected countries to get it first . The UK will have hopefully (not definately) have produced our own vaccine so won't have this problem.
Every strategy has pros and cons - the tide seems to be turning to admiring Sweden's more herd immunity approach and I wonder if in 12 months, we'll look back and think they were right all along.

www.mbie.govt.nz/science-and-technology/science-and-innovation/international-opportunities/covid-19-vaccine-strategy/

You might be interested to read this, regarding vaccine strategy in NZ. Apparently NZ is leveraging their relationship with the EU. . .

Just to add to that, NZ has something of a history of being a guinea pig, because of it's relatively small population, isolation, etc. . .

I imagine NZ will work with Australia re. getting a vaccine. I think the Aussies are working on one?
I think the EU will vaccinate their own people before other continents - it would be politically unwise to do anything else
I think the UK will also vaccinate it's own population first but will certainly share any vaccine it's produces with the EU and other continents too. I am sure I heard Matt Hancock say that - to prioritse those countries most affected - Africa / India I would think would be top of the queue.
I think the bottle neck will be in production - this could take the longest time as far as I understand it

@mbosnz

Whichever way you try to cook the books, NZ comes out roses. They were always clear that there would be some flare ups.

Of course, they have decisive, effective Governance, clear, honest, accountable communication, a cohesive lockdown strategy effectively communicated (my mother got her text while I was on the phone to her, it gave us both conniptions, no way you were ignoring that text!), excellent track and trace and fast, easily accessible testing.

This hasn't happened by accident, nor by wishful thinking, dithering, and hoping for the best.

Kia Kaha Aotearoa!

If only the UK had your government. Imagine what the UK would be like.

I don't think NZ will be used as a guinea pig? There is not much need - so many countries will want the vaccine
Brits are already the guinea pigs for the Oxford / Imperial vaccines - I'm one as I had the Oxford vaccine (or placebo) in early June. They were inundated with volunteers and I was lucky to get to be a guinea pig [grin}
They've also gone to Brazil and the US - so those countries should get access quickly too as their people have also been the guinea pigs

Dunno - just saying it's a possibility as it has happened in the past . . .

@sashagabadon there is a vaccine being developed in Adelaide, human trials going on:
www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/vaccine-search-australian-study-moves-to-phase-2-t

I just hope like hell that the UK vaccine won't be as 'worldbeating' as the
UK track and trace system - it shouldn't be, since it's Oxford, not Westminster run!

How do they monitor quarantine?

@MarshaBradyo
It’s not like here where they hope you do it. They literally confine you to a hotel for 2 weeks.

Frazzled I thought so.

I guess there’s still movement through airport, taxi to get there? Very small chance but hard to think where family caught it. They haven’t travelled, tracers will have to trace back.

@mbosnz

I just hope like hell that the UK vaccine won't be as 'worldbeating' as the UK track and trace system - it shouldn't be, since it's Oxford, not Westminster run!

But UK gov funded and supported! Therefore uk tax payer plus tested in the Brits too and so only fair uk ge5s first dibs i think. Uk has led the way in a lot of the research stuff. We have run trials on thousands of volunteers for all sorts if things and found drugs/ treatments that work and can help the rest of the world. I do think in research/ biotech we are world leading - which is a good thing and postive for UK research

[quote namechange34]@sashagabadon there is a vaccine being developed in Adelaide, human trials going on:
www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/vaccine-search-australian-study-moves-to-phase-2-t[/quote]
That's interesting. I thought there was and making good progress too.
I am really following all this vaccine progress mostly as on the oxford trial
Knew nothing much about vaccines 4 months ago!

But UK gov funded and supported! Therefore uk tax payer plus tested in the Brits too and so only fair uk ge5s first dibs i think.

Oh absolutely!

Sasha do you know, what’s the latest on the Oxford trial?

Whatever happens, NZ, I believe has done a good job and our government have made the correct decisions and swiftly. Would be interested to know if the family have received post, or items via parcel. Despite being so remote our postal system is fairly good ( I’ve sent stuff to the Uk and it has arrived in days rather than weeks).

@toria658

Not sure it’s so quick the other way round - took several months for a package to get to my brother in Auckland . Think Easter package arriving in July

Other countries with bigger challenges have avoided lockdown with good public health responses.

Where? Certainly not Sweden whose PM has publicly stated he regretted not taking a Sweden into lockdown

@PicsInRed, Jacinda explained the risk of exactly this happening and outlined their plans for responding a few weeks ago. Not a 180 in the last few days at all.

Zero COVID is demonstrably bonkers as a strategy

Not as demonstrably bumbling as the shambolic non strategy of the Bumbling Buffoon of our PM. Jacinda’s ratings meanwhile have never been higher. Funny that

All countries' Governments have made their assessments and choices according to their beliefs, their priorities, and their abilities.

While I'm not in NZ, I'm proud of how NZ has assessed the risk, and made their choices prioritising human life, while working hard to minimise the impact on the economy, which for the last 102 days has been able to function normally. Now it's going to have to push pause again. The chief health advisor and PM both made it clear that this was not so much a possibility as an inevitability.

However, they're now coming out of winter, so if there is another flair up, their public health system is less likely to be overwhelmed. And they're going to be more likely to be enjoying the sunshine, and vitamin D seems to help. And more socialising etc, outside. . .

@mbosnz

Whichever way you try to cook the books, NZ comes out roses. They were always clear that there would be some flare ups.

Of course, they have decisive, effective Governance, clear, honest, accountable communication, a cohesive lockdown strategy effectively communicated (my mother got her text while I was on the phone to her, it gave us both conniptions, no way you were ignoring that text!), excellent track and trace and fast, easily accessible testing.

This hasn't happened by accident, nor by wishful thinking, dithering, and hoping for the best.

Kia Kaha Aotearoa!

It’s really unreasonable to use NZ as a stick to beat the UK with. There are so many ways there is literally no comparison, and to be clear I don’t mean the sainted Jacinda.

I’ve always been most shocked that they got away with it right at the start, before restrictions, given they have such a significant Chinese population, that was was so lucky. And then yes, she acted decisively and it’s been great. I’m really sorry to hear this today. I hope they get to the bottom of it really quickly.