New outbreak in New Zealand

[CKBJ]

Breaking news outbreak in a retirement village in Auckland. Residents developed respiratory type illness. Auckland have gone into level 3 while the outbreak is assessed. After over 100 days of being virus free and their strict measures, what has broken down to allow this?

[quote SparklingLime]@PicsInRed, Jacinda explained the risk of exactly this happening and outlined their plans for responding a few weeks ago. Not a 180 in the last few days at all.[/quote]
I do not think this is a u-turn as it is in keeping with initial and overall strategy.

But when talking about the risk of this happening do they mention why? Eg we think it could be from people moving through airports or other

'Given they have such a significant Chinese population?'

Care to explain that statement? Because on the face of it, it seems really quite racist.

I'm not using this as a 'stick to beat the UK with'. The UK Government's inept response that has caused significant loss of life and gutted the economy? Sure. And no, I won't make excuses for them, they're doing that for themselves.

What happened to the x2 Brits who took covid to NZ when they went to NZ for funeral and someone let them out of quarantine to w early for mourning? Was that contained ?

I can’t remember the wording now, @MarshaBradyo, but it was really just an acknowledgement that as their borders aren’t totally closed, there were bound to be new cases at some point, and they would be dealt with by as localised lockdowns as possible. They were a bit frustrated that more of the population hadn’t taken up the tracker app.

@MarshaBradyo

Sasha do you know, what’s the latest on the Oxford trial?

I don't have any insider knowledge. Just what is out in public domain. It is safe and has good antibody response but hard to now test if it works as uk infection rate so low now. Hopefully efficiency is being tested as we speak in Brazil and US. I am quite bullish on it working but i am a glass half full sort so could be wrong! Hopefullty

[quote SparklingLime]@PicsInRed, Jacinda explained the risk of exactly this happening and outlined their plans for responding a few weeks ago. Not a 180 in the last few days at all.[/quote]
Yeah, I meant the public announcement to wear masks. This was clearly in response to the severity of the outbreak in Australia and the inevitability of that crossing the Tasman. I dont think there was the conspiracy apparently National have suggested ( 😂 ) but I do believe that existing modelling would have indicated that the extent of the outbreak in Australia combined with population movements made it inevitable in NZ.

Out of interest, trans-tasman private boat crossings have a long history of an "informal" element...was the Navy searching for and detaining these small craft arrivals?

I have impression there are exemptions to quarantine, people like airline pilots etc who do not have to quarantine while on stop-over. There could have been a mini-chain of transmission from one of the exempt people. It will come out what happened. I doubt there have been weeks of silent local transmission.

@Aridane

What happened to the x2 Brits who took covid to NZ when they went to NZ for funeral and someone let them out of quarantine to w early for mourning? Was that contained ?

Yes, extensive ongoing community testing did suggest that it was.

However not long after that, another guy ran out of isolation and went shopping at a busy inner city supermarket. He had covid.

This is probably airport related though.

If they really have managed to keep the virus out of NZ almost completely, no one in the country will have developed an immunity. The minute they fully open borders again, inwards and outwards, the virus is going to have a field day. They can't isolate themselves forever.

I think it is possible that it could have been trundling away undetected in the community given how many people seem to have mild symptoms or be asymptomatic. It will be interesting to see if they find out.

Ah, OK, @PicsInRed 👍🏽.

Care to explain that statement? Because on the face of it, it seems really quite racist.

Don’t be ridiculous, there are a lot of Chinese people living and working in NZ and the virus started to spread in China at a time of year when a lot of people were travelling to visit family, at home and abroad. The chances of someone bringing it into the country and it taking hold in the community must have been quite high. Luckily it didn’t happen.

It is my undetstanding that pilots and cabin crew are exempt from quarantine. They could pick up covid from transit or arriving passengers (many who have arrived and tested positive and are in managed isolation ). Aircraft cleaners and ground staff could have contracted it through contact with same said passengers or it cpuld have been passed via cleaners/staff/transportation crew at the isolation hotels.

@JaJaDingDong

If they really have managed to keep the virus out of NZ almost completely, no one in the country will have developed an immunity. The minute they fully open borders again, inwards and outwards, the virus is going to have a field day. They can't isolate themselves forever.

But it does appear to be seasonal and they will have held it off through most of the winter, so if transmission is naturally low through their summer they will have a few more months till they urgently need a vaccine and it’s not impossible there will be one ready by earlyish next year. As a forever strategy keeping the virus out makes no sense, but as a short term one it could work.

I think New Zealand as always have reacted quickly unlike England who seem to see things happening and take the wait and see approach. The quickness of New Zealand’s reaction will hopefully contain the outbreak and most importantly find the source. When there was a breach before (the 2 brits attending a funeral) the health minister took responsibility and stood down wouldn’t see that happening in England either.

But it does appear to be seasonal and they will have held it off through most of the winter,

Unfortunately right now is the equivalent of our February, and April (or NZ's seasonal Sept/Oct) was right when the UK had so many hospitalised and dying.

Hopefully it can be held off in NZ until January. The end of winter is such a risky time, with vitamin D levels being lower and also the damp, overcrowded housing that many live in - so cold and damp in winter. Respiratory problems are chronic and widespread.

What I really hope is that it hasn't got through NZ and into the Pacific Islands. That would be a horrific disaster.

@PicsInRed - I really think it's time you gave this Vit D thing a rest!! We've had weeks of sunny weather here, and everyone is out and about. I suspect that people in NZ are outside more in winter than many in the UK are even in summer - and looking at the temps in some parts of the UK lately (obviously not where it is very hot at present) we are having better weather here.

[quote eaglejulesk]@PicsInRed - I really think it's time you gave this Vit D thing a rest!! We've had weeks of sunny weather here, and everyone is out and about. I suspect that people in NZ are outside more in winter than many in the UK are even in summer - and looking at the temps in some parts of the UK lately (obviously not where it is very hot at present) we are having better weather here.[/quote]
Actually due to sunscreen many people don’t actually get enough sun on their skin to make enough vitamin D. In NZ they are quite fanatical about sun protection due to the hole in the ozone layer. In the UK we don’t get that much sun, you need 15 minutes a day on unprotected skin, face and forearms, and the sun needs to be high enough that your shadow is shorter than you are. We should be taking supplements.

Jacinda does not have magic powers after all.

[quote eaglejulesk]@PicsInRed - I really think it's time you gave this Vit D thing a rest!! We've had weeks of sunny weather here, and everyone is out and about. I suspect that people in NZ are outside more in winter than many in the UK are even in summer - and looking at the temps in some parts of the UK lately (obviously not where it is very hot at present) we are having better weather here.[/quote]
It's scorching here at the moment.

Re: vit D deficiency, incl in NZ, I'll let google be your friend. I'm really not interested in debates with the fervent coverted, so I won't responding further.

Re: vit D deficiency, incl in NZ, I'll let google be your friend. I'm really not interested in debates with the fervent coverted, so I won't responding further.

Neither will I. The last time you got on this hobbyhorse of yours I pointed out the flaws and how you had changed the wording of your linked info to suit your own agenda. The fact that four (yes four!) people in Auckland have covid is hardly a good argument regarding a lack of vitamin D!!! And I know it's scorching there at present - I was talking about places like Scotland, where it has been colder than it's been here lately.

Useful thread for information / updates:
mobile.twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1293116902886137857

From above thread:
"The father of the family is a man in his 50s who works the night shift at a facility in South Auckland that has links to Auckland airport."
mobile.twitter.com/MackayIM/status/1293116902886137857

I think NZ has done really well, even with a tiny new outbreak. Wish Australia had gone hard earlier.