Predicted 2nd wave

[Pixxie7]

So they are predicting a 2nd wave twice as big as the first at the beginning of December if the track and trace system isn’t improved. Do you think the government has learnt anything?

How are parents being prevented from working? They can work if they want to.
Not with part time school they can’t.
That just means they have to organise their own childcare. It doesn’t prevent them from working.

There is a PHE definition of outbreak. Interesting how many people on MN always want to redefine the word to minimise it.

"Clarifying" does not translate into "minimising".

The PHE definition of an outbreak covers situations of two or more infections. Two cases are worth noting but should not be a cause for major concern.

193 outbreaks in schools during last 4 weeks of term. Just not on the BBC or in the Daily Mail, so people don't think it happened.

The page 11 of Weekly Surveillance report includes all acute respiratory infection incidents, not just those involving COVID.

Page 10, however, states:

222 new ARI incidents have been reported in week 30 (Figure 13):
• 121 incidents were from care homes where 88 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 14 incidents were from hospitals where 12 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 23 incidents were from educational settings where 7 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2
• 28 incidents were from workplace settings where 26 had at least one linked case that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2

I cant imagine how they could prevent a second wave/bigger surge whatever people want to call it once schools and parents return to work in September. But I also think schools need to go back. Some ppe in schools would at least slow the infection rate I imagine, but think we will have to learn to live with it. Scary. I work in a school and my children go to a different school inn separate classes/bubbles. So doubt we'll make it to 1/2 term without one of us getting sent home!

If you do not spot a small outbreak it becomes a large and disastrous outbreak.

This is why an outbreak is a small number to prevent spread.

What you described upthread is a large outbreak. With all that that entails

Schools need to report one case of a notifiable disease. Two means it has spread.

It is dangerous to minimise this. And that is what you are doing.

That just means they have to organise their own childcare.

The supply isn’t there or anywhere close (which you well know).

Childcare places are declining not increasing and could never have plugged the gap of school under any circs.

That just means they have to organise their own childcare. It doesn’t prevent them from working.

What childcare would you suggest I use if there is another lockdown due to a second wave?

It is dangerous to minimise this. And that is what you are doing.

No, I am simply sticking to facts. I have (i) clarified the PHE definition of an outbreak and (ii) pointed out that the poster implying that there had been 193 COVID related outbreaks in educational settings over past 4 weeks missed some important information in the Surveillance Report.

Using dramatic language (e.g. "minimising", etc) is never constructive and does not help in any discussion.

I find people who say define outbreak always know this but want to either trap people into proving they don't know or sneer dismissively when they say it is 2 cases.

I am an English specialist. Minimise is not an emotive word.

The supply isn’t there or anywhere close (which you well know)
Secondary school pupils are capable of going to school independently and being at home unsupervised. Primary school pupils need supervision but many of them have family childcare available. Other parents will be able to work opposite shifts or adjust hours. There aren’t that many parents who couldn’t work around it somehow.

But, anyway , my comments were not addressed to you. You were clarifying.

Imo ,people who ask the question tend to want a redefinition to suit their ends.

What childcare would you suggest I use if there is another lockdown due to a second wave?
If there’s another lockdown then surely you wouldn’t be going out to work? Unless you’re a key worker, in which case schools would accommodate your child as they did during the first lockdown.

There just are not enough hours in the day from for parents to work 8 hour 'opposite shifts' and remain sane. It's an exhausting juggle and you feel you are either letting your child or your employer down. We've been doing it for months and it's back breaking

I live in Japan. This is where we are. Of course the government doesn’t want to use the term second wave or have another lockdown, but the situation in the US shows how quickly things can deteriorate. I feel so sorry for the businesses affected, but I’m staying home as much as possible.

Sorry that’s an old chart. We are now here.

If there’s another lockdown then surely you wouldn’t be going out to work? Unless you’re a key worker, in which case schools would accommodate your child as they did during the first lockdown.

I work from home. I worked from home whilst trying to take care of my four year old during the first lockdown and it was utterly impossible. My hair was falling out from stress and anxiety.

So no, I'd prefer him to go to school.

To be completely fair, 'defining' the PHE meaning of outbreak is definitely not the same as 'minimising' the meaning of outbreak. Of course any word can be emotive if deployed in the right circumstances. And clearly there is a difference between an outbreak of 2 and an outbreak of 100. That's why we need to test widely and close bubbles or classes - so that an outbreak of 2 doesn't become an outbreak of 100.

By the way @Piggywaspushed you mentioned on another thread that the detailed data I was looking for on school outbreaks was available. Could you let me know where it is? I am genuinely interested as I want to make sure schools are as safe as possible. I looked on the PHE site but couldn't find detailed data by school and local authority on number of cases in each outbreak, number of bubbles closed and onward transmission in households. I only found an unhelpful block graph which doesn't separate out outbreaks by individual educational setting which is what would be really helpful to know.

@nikori

That chart is scary.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-coronavirus-schools-reopen/2020/06/06/9047be8c-a645-11ea-8681-7d471bf20207_story.html%3foutputType=amp

This article suggests schools went back a week or two into June; is that being attributed to the second wave?

sunset, I can't link to it on my phone, I'm afraid. Winter found it a short while ago so may be able to?

@LadybirdInTheWindow

If there’s another lockdown then surely you wouldn’t be going out to work? Unless you’re a key worker, in which case schools would accommodate your child as they did during the first lockdown.

I work from home. I worked from home whilst trying to take care of my four year old during the first lockdown and it was utterly impossible. My hair was falling out from stress and anxiety.

So no, I'd prefer him to go to school.

Everyone would prefer schools to be open-but they simply won’t stay open if they aren’t safe for the people inside them.

The people who are shouting the loudest for schools to go back completely as they were before with no additional funding, staffing, social distancing or protesting clothing, have the most to lose by them quickly closing again.

Primary school pupils need supervision but many of them have family childcare available

Many don’t. And many would have relied on now vulnerable grandparents.

Other parents will be able to work opposite shifts or adjust hours.

Not much opportunity for that with most full or almost full time hours. In fact I don’t know a single person in RL who is able to do without childcare in this way. Ever. Much less now.

There aren’t that many parents who couldn’t work around it somehow.

Total rubbish.

And are you actually advocating 11 year olds staying at home alone 8/9 hours a day for the foreseeable? Would parents really be happy with this?

Also that would mean single parents totally up shit creek.

Could you let me know where it is?

The information on "outbreaks in educational settings" is available in the Weekly Surveillance reports:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

Worth noting that the table on page 11 shows all ARI outbreaks (not just COVID) - as per my earlier posts.

I am not sure you are ever going to get the detailed level of info you want sunset unless your LA provides it.

And are you actually advocating 11 year olds staying at home alone 8/9 hours a day for the foreseeable?
It’s not desirable but nothing about this pandemic is. I’m just hearing a lot of parents saying “I need free childcare” with little consideration for the wider impacts of providing this. How did we get to this point where parents feel entitled to hand their children to the state five days a week?