Predicted 2nd wave

[Pixxie7]

So they are predicting a 2nd wave twice as big as the first at the beginning of December if the track and trace system isn’t improved. Do you think the government has learnt anything?

@MoreListeningLessChatting
3 are in hospital on oxygen currently. Not looking great to be honest. The others are at home but their symptoms certainly are not mild. Very worried right now. Thanks for asking though.

Lots of bodies crammed into one room for hours at a time? No PPE or social distancing? Only an idiot would think the virus won’t spread rapidly in those conditions.

You forgot the humidity after a drizzly day with Windows that don't open well and classrooms that were only built for 20, plus low ceilings and everyone eating lunch in there too.

I’m not sure about this, schools went back partly on 1st June... was there any escalation from that? None of the schools round here had confirmed cases and they had a lot of pupils back.

When you look at the government graphs on settings, for a couple of weeks outbreaks were higher in schools than care homes.

Also, schools really didn't go back. It was roughly around 30-40% primary pupils max. Very few secondary age pupils did.

If people would take responsibility for their own health and the health of those around them, that would be the single biggest factor in avoiding illness and possible death.
Track and trace is very important but ultimately people everywhere need to stop blaming the Government for this Pandemic and looking for them to effectively fix the problem as that is not going to happen, they clearly are not up to the job.
We all need to read, consider and listen to the scientific reports and studies and work out how best to keep ourselves safe within our own circumstances, and that means being unselfish and considering those more vulnerable than themselves.

If you put a lot of people in an enclosed environment and one of those people has the virus, then the chances are some of the other people will catch it. I don't think saying that is scaremongering is it ?

I think that children are less likely to get the virus, so are less likely to spread it, although the ones who do get it are more likely to have very minor symptoms and so may spread it without people realising they are infected ? Also if the child has mild cold symptoms as opposed to the more classic Covid symptoms are parents going to get them tested or send them to school ?

Perhaps an increase in random testing in the school environment might help, I don't think we could commit to testing all 10 million plus children in full-time education, the UK doesn't have the capacity for that does it ?

Of course they haven't learned anything
Winter is going to be a disaster
We just have to live with it

@Dragongirl10 spot on.

The issue with children is they're often asymptomatic. And it's the additional factor of parents accompanying them to school etc, plus then going to work. It's the over 11s that will be the bigger issue in terms of actual transmission, though younger children can and fo transmit it.

@Hollyhead

I think the thing is with schools, is that people shouldn't underestimate the sheer size and scale of the March outbreak - we basically allowed CV19 to filter in unchecked throughout January, February and by March it had grown to an enormous number of people.

If school/child transmission was a big driver, I think we would have seen scenarios where whole class groups and their parents got struck down at the same time - and there doesn't seem to be much ?any evidence of that. Understanding why, and how concerned we should be about schools is something we really need to understand.

As for the government, they can't do right from wrong. They were too slow to get going, but now they get critised for being silent, critised for 'secretly modelling London shutdown' (a scenario which I think is eminently sensible for a government to discuss). People want to be treated like adults but when given a rule they moan, when given flexibility they moan. With the novel nature of the virus, decisions have to be last minute, the picture is changing all the time, we just have to get used to less planning time, more pragmatism and more flexibility.

Yes this! It was so rife in Jan/Feb/March and yet even then we weren't seeing evidence that it was taking out whole schools up and down the country in serious outbreaks. The situation in Sept will be much better because

• the community case numbers are lower
• people with symptoms will isolate until tested which is a massive change from February when everyone was coughing on each other
• much much more testing
• parents socially distancing at Primary school drop offs where previously we were all packed in together in the playground

I find it hard to see why some people on here think all schools will be closed by end of September when life is so different now and there was never a schools problem particularly in the first place. Of course there will be schools that have to close at times but it's a numbers game and hopefully the amount that can stay permanently open will far outweigh the numbers that have temporary shutdowns. We can't keep all children away from an education as it wont be 100% perfect or safe.

If people would take responsibility for their own health and the health of those around them, that would be the single biggest factor in avoiding illness and possible death.
Track and trace is very important but ultimately people everywhere need to stop blaming the Government for this Pandemic and looking for them to effectively fix the problem as that is not going to happen, they clearly are not up to the job.
We all need to read, consider and listen to the scientific reports and studies and work out how best to keep ourselves safe within our own circumstances, and that means being unselfish and considering those more vulnerable than themselves.

I agree completely

And I forgot one more positive thing - there is now most likely some level of immunity in the population, even if only 10%, this will slow spread to what it was earlier in the year when noone had it!

What about the young vulnerable to the virus? Can you imagine how it feels to be the parent of, say, a type 1 diabetic right now?

But those kids were in School in February and March and children are a very small group in terms of the people dying from Covid-19 - they would have significantly figured at the peak periods around Easter. But many paediatric units reported themselves to be very quiet - there was a period further into lockdown when they thought children were presenting with a post-viral syndrome (possible after being asymptomatic with Covid) but kids with underlying illnesses getting seriously ill with Covid has not been significant and peak period for deaths - when these children had circulated as normal in Feb/March - would have shown the risk.

"We all need to read, consider and listen to the scientific reports and studies and work out how best to keep ourselves safe within our own circumstances"

Except your working conditions is dictated by guidance from the government, who like you say, are "clearly not up to the job".

What chance/ choices does an elderly care home patient have to keep themselves safe?

kids with underlying illnesses getting seriously ill with Covid has not been significant and peak period for deaths - when these children had circulated as normal in Feb/March - would have shown the risk

And yet children have died. Would you be happy sending your vulnerable child into a crowded environment with poor ventilation right now? Or is that not something you need to worry about because you're all in perfect health and young enough to not be concerned? No elderly relatives in your household either?

Packing children back into classrooms is asking for problems. Part time schools no more than 15 in a class with at least 1m apart. The quality of education 15 children can receive part time will compensate the reduction in quantity. This part time would preferable be week in week out for consistency for the children. Admittedly a nightmare for working parents but as we all seem to agree “the children are what matters”.

Yes, it's just a model. But "The Scientists" will not be running just one model once and then presenting that as fact - that's just how it appears in the media to simplify it.

They will run their model(s) lots and lots of times.
They will adjust for different parameters.
They will constantly retrospectively compare their modelling outcomes to what actually happened, and use that data to try to make future predictions even more accurate.
They will model in uncertainty.
They will use supercomputers because of the huge amounts of data to be processed.

The models will always give a range of possibilities.
If something concerning keeps coming up with a relatively/ unacceptably high percentage of probability (e.g. a very large spike in infections across the country) then that means some sort of extra action might be needed.

I would have thought that with more damaging outcomes, they might start getting concerned at slightly lower percentages - is a 20% risk of a large spike happening too high, or is it acceptable? What about a 30% risk, or 50%, or 70%? Someone will have had to decide what level of risk is acceptable, and what level is not.

So the models are predicting that with Track and Trace operating at existing levels, the chance of a large spike is high enough to be concerned about.
If Track and Trace were more efficient then the risk of a large second surge in the winter would be low enough to be acceptable.

WALKSEN...I agree that it is much much harder for some to try and safeguard themselves, l wish l had all the answers but of course l don't.

However many many people are in denial and/or plain selfish in their actions and could help to a bigger or lesser degree.

5 out of about 14 million under 18s in the U.K. have died yes that’s 5 too many but during that time 25 kids also committed suicide in the U.K.
There comes a time where risks need to be looked at in a constructive way. Nothing about the lockdown has been done to protect children, it’s done everything but protect them.
Vulnerable children should obviously have the option of remaining shielded if their parents see it As best but on a population level, our kids need to be back in school and things need to move forward.

Dragongirl10

i totally agree with your sentiments.

@Dinocan you’re rather dramatic for someone who claims others are being dramatic

Anyone who has vulnerable people at home can de-reg and home school. We can't keep kids off indefinitely.

but kids with underlying illnesses getting seriously ill with Covid has not been significant and peak period for deaths - when these children had circulated as normal in Feb/March - would have shown the risk.

The parents of many of our children with existing health conditions pulled them out of school well before the school closures and they’ve been shielding ever since. I can’t imagine that is unusual. I would be very concerned if one of those children was mine.

And many people who accuse others of being negative gloomsters flatly refuse to consider any alternative part time wars of opening schools part time. Creative solutions are met with negative denial and insistence that it will not work on countless threads on here. Ironic and hypocritical

Admittedly a nightmare for working parents but as we all seem to agree “the children are what matters”.

Yes the ensuing poverty and rising homelessness amongst children when their parents are prevented from working will be wonderful for the children. I, for one, cannot wait.

@GinDrinker00

Oh my, that is awful. Best wishes that they all recover