Predicted 2nd wave

[Pixxie7]

So they are predicting a 2nd wave twice as big as the first at the beginning of December if the track and trace system isn’t improved. Do you think the government has learnt anything?

@cantkeepawayforever

there’s now 1 in 18000 people with it

I think the last wide scale population testing was 1 in 1,500?

Not everyone on here is based in England. 1 in 18000 is the Scottish estimate

Info from the British Heart Foundation re the virus and risk of blood clots and heart attacks. In case anyone thinks I’m making it up.
In response to the mention that heart attacks deaths are up 40%

www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/what-does-coronavirus-do-to-your-body

@Nobodyputsdaisyinthecorner surely if they were Covid related they would be Covid deaths not heart attack deaths. The increase in heart attack deaths is more likely due to be people being put off seeking help and delays in diagnosis of cardiac conditions.

Both can be mentioned on the death certificate

The rise in heart attacks deaths can be caused by both the virus In some cases and people putting off treatment in others. It doesn’t have to be all or nothing!

The 40% rise wasn’t in all heart attack deaths it was for the milder NSTEMI heart attacks from 5% to 7%. The number of deaths caused by more severe heart attacks actually fell. Having checked the stat I wanted to give the full info. Still tragic.

@StealthPolarBear

We had a predicted second wave following the ve day parties, then following the beach pictures in May, then following the BLM protests. I'm sure it will happen but the predictions so far have not been accurate.

Absolutely agree.

And so many people were ill with astonishingly similar coughs and breathing issues in December, Jan and Feb....

I wish people would stop trying to scare others, chances are we’re a lot more resilient now.

I think the routine we’re all in now with making sure things are washed, hands clean etc and keeping some distance will have a massively positive effect on the amount of winter illness generally actually

I presume lockdown and the intense stress it has caused for many will also contribute to increased heart attacks and strokes. High BP will certainly go up in stressful times.

@Nobodyputsdaisyinthecorner

The 40% rise wasn’t in all heart attack deaths it was for the milder NSTEMI heart attacks from 5% to 7%. The number of deaths caused by more severe heart attacks actually fell. Having checked the stat I wanted to give the full info. Still tragic.

There are more deaths from suicides etc too the fallout will be worse than the disease

@Nobodyputsdaisyinthecorner why are you so desperate for heart attack deaths to be Covid deaths? Aren't other deaths sad enough? People have died from heart attacks in their thousands as long as there have been people. If people are put off seeking help for any reason it's hardly surprising if they rise.

@DebLou47 like to put some figures to that?

The government's reaction to this is one of a losing gambler doubling up on a lost bet.

They clearly overreacted to a moderately dangerous virus and they seemed, based on the ever worsening economic forecasts at any rate, to significantly underestimate the impact on the economy of their lockdown measures.

Ignore the sunk cost, ignore the constant hysteria and carry out a simple cost benefit analysis of future measures versus any lives that might genuinely be saved by them.

Long past time to go back to normal and, if there is a second wave and it looks like it might genuinely "overwhelm" the NHS than bring in the sort of social distancing measures they introduced in Sweden not a full lockdown.

This will go down as the greatest self inflicted wound in economic history.

@countrygirl99

I’m not desperate for them all to be Covid deaths that’s why I actually stated they won’t all be that. If you read my posts I actually say some will be due to that, some will be due to people being reluctant to going to hospital. And I said it’s not all or nothing. It can be both

I now also agree with the suggestion stress could have been a factor too.

"This will go down as the greatest self inflicted wound in economic history."

Sweden has 5 -12 x the deaths / million of its neighbours - and even of Germany

with its central bank predicting a similar loss in GDP

People don't go out and work or spend as normal during a pandemic, whatever their government says.

The UK's death curves were following Italy's and we all saw the tragedy of N Italy being overwhelmed until they lovked down.

I'm no particular BJ fan,
but if he hadn't locked down, the UK would have had many times its deaths.

Âs for lockdown deaths:

The UK had > 60,000 deaths more the historical average of total deaths during the 3 month period that COVID was at its worst
All English regions saw a large increase in deaths

Total deaths came down to normal levels before lockdown was lifted

SImilar pattern for other European countries:

The situation now is very different and hopefully requires much less drastic measures than national lockdowns:

• Scientists know far more about how COVID spreads and can target measures to tackle asymptomatic cases, clusters and superspreaders

• Any lockdowns would hopefully only be very localised around large clusters / outbreaks

• Doctors know far more about how to treat it and which meds help

• The UK, like its neighbours, hopefully has built up systems for mass testing, track & trace

@Porcupineinwaiting from what I was reading 200,000

That saying I think we should have locked down but not lock down again

ONS stats on drivers deaths with covid were bad, one of the worst categories if I remember rightly. It doesn't make sense to me.

Males in low paid sedentary jobs with lots of face to face contact and possibly handling money and more likely to live and work in densely populated areas. You can how the risks overlap.

Education staff (at least primary and secondary) predominantly female, relatively well paid, less likely to live in social deprivation. When I looked at the peak figures for teachers they were more skewed to males than probably the occupational ratio. I suspect they were older as well.

It was knowing this and sending people (mostly, by observation, middle aged sedentary males where I live ) out to drive school buses on a couple of weeks that made no sense to me.

Sorry for unclear post!

The ONS report was interesting. Male care workers had worse stats, male cleaners not above average at all for age and social categorisation.