Are we headed for an autumn/winter second wave and national lockdown?

[Hamandcheeseandpickle]

Or even before then?

I wasn’t expecting to see spikes in infection rates in Spain, France etc so quickly. Highest worldwide figures on a daily basis. I don’t understand how, with people back at work, school, indoor activities, we’re not going to have a second wave?

If someone doesn’t think we will, please explain this to me as I would LOVE to be wrong.

overweight 40 year old living in a deprived urban area

Oh dear-that’s me! A slightly tubby teacher working in a large urban school of hundreds, with no mask, no hope of social distancing and looking after my parents in their 80s.

@fedup21 If you're otherwise healthy (not diabetic, etc) it's still a very low risk.
Are you not allowed to wear a mask? It seems particularly unreasonable if you're not. Even if they don't make it mandatory, you should be allowed to if you want to.

Asthmatic, but otherwise ok.

No, we are not allowed to wear masks-we have been told the children won’t be able to understand what we say if we wear them.

Aren't teachers allowed to wear the niqab?
The children presumably still understand them.
How come children in other countries manage to understand teachers in masks?

A good balance would be to shield all the most vulnerable from the age of 40. It seems the risks, even with underlying conditions, under 40 are minimal

Yes, that sounds like the sort of thing that might work, though I'm not sure it would need to be quite as low as 40

For me, if we're going to rely on local approaches, another thing that needs looking at is enforcement whether that's quarantine, closing of non essential shops, communal gatherings or whatever. So far there have been precisely nil fines for quarantine breaches, police obviously can't get involved with everyone who fails to wear a mask, and we have communities who are largely untouchable because of cultural sensitivities, but who sadly bear the brunt of many of the current outbreaks

If these things really are so important for the protection of us all, I just wonder how people would like enforcement to be handled?

I'm mid 40s and don't think of myself as vulnerable, from the reading I have done it seems to be more like over 60s...

Viruses do not respond at all to subjective, political or moral arguments.

We knew this was a highly infectious virus that could infect a population with no immunity and spread through asymptomatic or presymptomatic cases, who may never get sick or may become very ill and even die, that symptoms are widespread - not just respiratory but immunological, affecting heart, lungs, kidney, brain etc and that even so called mild cases can be severely effected - many months ago because data has been shared between countries that were effected earlier.

We understand the nature of exponential growth. It's math. Math is not effected by subjective belief. It is objective. It just is. Some things are true even if if doesn't fit with your business plan or how you want things to be or how you think things ought to be.

We have to work within this objective framework to see what is possible. Eg it is a fact that viral load effects severity - how can I reduce it? It is a fact that 'terrain' effects severity - how can I best prepare the terrain.

This objectivity means you can predict and not rely on hindsight claiming that no one knew. Yes they did. 'Mistakes' weren't really unavoidable.

Are we going to accept that reopening pubs, etc, workplaces, public transport, schools, universities etc are going to be fine given what we objectively know about CV and the undisputed fact that it is still in the community or are we all just going to cross our fingers and hope - and then with hindsight say we shouldn't have done that. Just like discharging into care homes. Whoops. Now is the time to learn from mistakes. Not hope that it will be different this time.

Of course, we the people are doing that, but the narrative of people must go back to work, children must go back to school, we just have to accept death plays into this narrative. Along with the insane argument that if you don't accept blind faith you want a 'second wave' whereas blind faith will prevent one. Faith is irrelevant.

This country's leaders are now arguing that non-pharmalogical interventions will be sufficient. Will they really? For this to be the case infection rates have to be really low and you have to trace, track and quarantine every case. We were doing really well back in March and then there were too many cases and we lost control. You have to know each case and their contacts and know they can't have acquired the virus somewhere else. Otherwise case, case, cluster, cluster, boom.

@KeepOnKeepingOnAgainandAgain

Viruses do not respond at all to subjective, political or moral arguments.

We knew this was a highly infectious virus that could infect a population with no immunity and spread through asymptomatic or presymptomatic cases, who may never get sick or may become very ill and even die, that symptoms are widespread - not just respiratory but immunological, affecting heart, lungs, kidney, brain etc and that even so called mild cases can be severely effected - many months ago because data has been shared between countries that were effected earlier.

We understand the nature of exponential growth. It's math. Math is not effected by subjective belief. It is objective. It just is. Some things are true even if if doesn't fit with your business plan or how you want things to be or how you think things ought to be.

We have to work within this objective framework to see what is possible. Eg it is a fact that viral load effects severity - how can I reduce it? It is a fact that 'terrain' effects severity - how can I best prepare the terrain.

This objectivity means you can predict and not rely on hindsight claiming that no one knew. Yes they did. 'Mistakes' weren't really unavoidable.

Are we going to accept that reopening pubs, etc, workplaces, public transport, schools, universities etc are going to be fine given what we objectively know about CV and the undisputed fact that it is still in the community or are we all just going to cross our fingers and hope - and then with hindsight say we shouldn't have done that. Just like discharging into care homes. Whoops. Now is the time to learn from mistakes. Not hope that it will be different this time.

Of course, we the people are doing that, but the narrative of people must go back to work, children must go back to school, we just have to accept death plays into this narrative. Along with the insane argument that if you don't accept blind faith you want a 'second wave' whereas blind faith will prevent one. Faith is irrelevant.

This country's leaders are now arguing that non-pharmalogical interventions will be sufficient. Will they really? For this to be the case infection rates have to be really low and you have to trace, track and quarantine every case. We were doing really well back in March and then there were too many cases and we lost control. You have to know each case and their contacts and know they can't have acquired the virus somewhere else. Otherwise case, case, cluster, cluster, boom.

Yes we are going to accept that opening workplaces is fine, otherwise we can't buy food or pay bills....

Yes we are going to accept that opening workplaces is fine, otherwise we can't buy food or pay bills....

It depends on the workplace.

Many have adapted successfully to wfh and can be left like that.

Others can be open with risk mitigation - social distancing, screens, masks, controlled access to clients / customers etc.

There aren't all that many that HAVE to be 'open as before'.

@annabel85

People can’t really expect society to start functioning again and cases stay as low as they are. But society can’t stay shut down. I suspect shielding might make a comeback, hopefully with proper financial support.

It's a trade off. You open what's most essential (from September that includes schools) and open up where social distancing can be adhered to (shops, restaurants, pubs).

Things like nightclubs, football stadiums and concert venues will have to be stay empty (or operate at very low capacity) and working from home should be encouraged if the government are fearful of a bad winter. That's the trade off for having schools fully open and allowing open borders and international travel.

I agree

I’ll be paying for a flu jab as I always do. Despite being high risk (late 40s, BMI over 40) I’ve never been offered one on the NHS. I always get it done at Lloyds pharmacy.

KeepOn yes it’s maths but we have to work our how to get as much economic bang out if restrictions. Also behaviour change did cause the first peak to occur pre-lockdown.

So continue with wfh, screens, visors, mitigation where possible. But end furlough and try to avoid huge unemployment as much as possible.

What would you do next if you could decide?

@Kurtain

What I don’t understand is how people think we’ll pay for even very basic public services with tax receipts plummeting and borrowing at insane levels already?

Yes, i'm confused too. Do we just borrow more & heap a load more debt onto the younger generations?

in general times no one things of the national debt. The UK hasnt paid the debt from borrowing for the world wars. do we worry about this day to day? The uk only finished paying off the debt from slavery in the last decade. Borrowing is something that happens all the time and is never really worried about. Yes the UK have borrowed for this crisis as they borrowed during the war. After this crisis is over they will add this debt to the others and pay it back over the next 100 or so years. After the initial period of time tax payers wont even think about this debt, in the same way we don't think about where each penny of our tax goes each month.

@SengaStrawberry

I’ll be paying for a flu jab as I always do. Despite being high risk (late 40s, BMI over 40) I’ve never been offered one on the NHS. I always get it done at Lloyds pharmacy.

How much does it cost, roughly?

Appuskidu

I paid £10 in autumn of 2018. I believe they are a standard cost across all the pharmacies.

we don't think about where each penny of our tax goes each month.

I'd love to bloody know where it goes, I'm paying sodding thousands a year on it!

I don't particularly want to pay any more either, which is more than likely going to happen once "I'll pay for that Sunak" finally turns off the taps (which he should do sooner, rather than later) and we have to start coughing up to pay for all of this.

@Deelish75

Appuskidu

I paid £10 in autumn of 2018. I believe they are a standard cost across all the pharmacies.

Oh, that’s great-thank you.

@Appuskidu yes it’s about £10 - £11

We usually have the flu jab privately too but I want to read up more this year before booking in case it leaves the immune system vulnerable for a while as can then weigh up the risks.

@Hamandcheeseandpickle

Or even before then?

I wasn’t expecting to see spikes in infection rates in Spain, France etc so quickly. Highest worldwide figures on a daily basis. I don’t understand how, with people back at work, school, indoor activities, we’re not going to have a second wave?

If someone doesn’t think we will, please explain this to me as I would LOVE to be wrong.

The other reason for a spike in infection rates is that more people are being tested. That isn't just in the uk. Many people are asymptomatic but getting tested as have been in contact with a known case.

If there isn't a corresponding rise in deaths then it means that people are getting a virus and then recovering - like many other viruses. I don't know if this is the case but it could be and I hope so.

For those interested in cases in schools, this is interesting, taken from this document.
More outbreaks in schools then hospitals in the last 4 weeks, though care homes are clearly still having the highest number of outbreaks.

The way schools are planned to operate in Sept concerns me and I think a Sept / early Oct spike is inevitable.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/903450/WeeklyyCOVID19SurveillanceeReportweekk30FINALLUPDATED.pdf

I think there are lots of reasons to be positive, actually, so no I don't see there being a very significant second wave or lockdown.

We are actually doing pretty well at contact tracing right now. More resources are going into that so it will be better still by winter. It does make a difference, as parts of Spain have discovered. It is being taken seriously here.

People are better at washing their hands and the evidence is that was making a pretty big difference to spread before lockdown. It's really the number 1 thing people can do beyond staying in if they get symptoms.

The government is working to increase testing capacity to 500,00 a day by autumn so we can catch more cases and prevent spread.

People can get tested and get results far more rapidly if they feel ill - at the start of the pandemic that wasn't the case at all. The quicker results come through, the quicker you can get people to self-isolate and that limits how many people get infected overall.

People are moving to wearing face masks and I think will wear them more in the winter as cases rise - most people don't want to get sick. It's different now because the weather is good and so much going on is happening outside.

Treatments are better as is knowledge of how to keep the most vulnerable people alive - there is clear evidence fewer people who get seriously ill with this are dying than at the start of the pandemic by quite a significant number. That is only going to improve as the months go by as other treatments are tested.

The vaccine trials are going really well.

Screens are up in various workplaces, reducing spread even if only by a little.

We have (hopefully!) learnt some very painful lessons about sending people back to care homes from hospitals. Huge mistakes were made but if you can change your policies around how people are sent back to homes (eg after 2 negatives tests) you can keep care homes safer and there will be fewer deaths. We know the vast majority of people who die of this virus are elderly and have multiple health issues so focusing our attention on protecting and shielding these people will have an impact on death rates

There is going to be a huge drive to do more flu vaccinations which will help reduce overall deaths.

We have the ability to do targeted local lockdowns and using Leicester as an example has shown that works to contain outbreaks, hard as those small lockdowns are.

There is lots of research saying some/many have innate immunity which might well make a difference to how the virus spreads a second time if things do hot up. More information is needed about that though.

I am still feeling cautious and obviously we need the government not to botch this and people to take preventing the virus from spreading seriously but there are so many reasons to have hope. We are in a completely different situation to March. I do think there will be outbreaks and deaths but we get flu deaths each winter anyway. 50,000 in 2017, in fact - which, by the way, few people even noticed if they weren't directly affected.

Does anyone know if the temporary ban on evictions has been lifted?
It's a worry if we're going to see potentially large numbers of people evicted just as we possibly enter a second wave. Particularly as some of these people will be in the clinically vulnerable groups.

More outbreaks in schools then hospitals in the last 4 weeks, though care homes are clearly still having the highest number of outbreaks.

The school outbreaks have thankfully have not lead to an increase in daily deaths despite schools being open for several weeks. School children not generally being seriously affected by this virus in any way. You have to remember that - this is not a virus where a rise in cases means mass death. It depends on which population you're talking about. Keep school children away from the elderly and there aren't necessarily catastrophic consequences from children catching it.

MN is full out angry voices, wanting drastic measures put in place to protect lives from CV but somehow forgetting that lack of food, shelter, water, healthcare...etc will kill just as many if not more.

Without diminishing the deprivation and suffering caused by lockdown, I would point out that the country running during an uncontrolled second wave simply can't happen in the way this poster implies. Look at other countries where they've tried to keep going-the death toll and toll on services caused by a pandemic brings a country to its knees. If test and trace with local lockdowns and treatment advances don't work out as we hope, there are no other options except to lurch in and out of lockdowns that are as big as they need to be. The only countries that seriously take the position in the quoted post are those for whom daily wages are subsistence and there isn't a mission of being able to treat any proportion of people so no point bothering to try. And their situation is tragic. Ours, while very difficult, is still a privileged problem in comparison and we will not be able to stomach high death tolls relative to other European countries.

Our best hope is a chaotic winter and a vaccine in 2121.