Are we headed for an autumn/winter second wave and national lockdown?

[Hamandcheeseandpickle]

Or even before then?

I wasn’t expecting to see spikes in infection rates in Spain, France etc so quickly. Highest worldwide figures on a daily basis. I don’t understand how, with people back at work, school, indoor activities, we’re not going to have a second wave?

If someone doesn’t think we will, please explain this to me as I would LOVE to be wrong.

Given how many aren’t complying now, they aren’t suddenly going to start in winter so I can’t see how rates will remain the same.

Then the children will be back at school with no distancing and the families that have been following the rules/guidelines will be mixing with those that haven’t yet face fines if they refuse to send their children back.

@cantkeepawayforever

What's the alternative though? not have kids back in school?

Genuine infection control in and around school - money for hugely increased school transport to allow SD onboard; extra toilet blocks to avoid sharing; full-time cleaning; part-time attendance combined with online learning; visors and screens for staff; masks for older children; outdoor sinks.

Genuine infection control outside school, fully enforced.

I completely agree.

When people raise legitimate concerns about the logistics of a full reopening of schools, there are a minority of people who retort, ‘well, they can’t be closed forever!’ which isn’t addressing the actual issue.

I think most teachers and parents would be much happier if measures such as these-particularly additional money for cleaning, toilet and sink facilities-had actually been funded by the government. It’s very much a ‘cross fingers and hope it’ll be ok that we’re not going to spend a penny more on schools’ when I think the trend of increased in cases over June/July shows that it probably won’t be good.

If you had a vulnerable child or were vulnerable yourself, I would be very concerned for September. If anyone is going to become seriously unwell with Covid, it’ll probably be them.

I fully expect Boris to be in the news in November saying he’s very sorry how many children/teacher and parents schools died when schools reopened, but he HAD told schools to make themselves safe and they didn’t, so it was really their own fault.

I think there will be regional spikes but there won't be a national lockdown. We can't afford it.

When people raise legitimate concerns about the logistics of a full reopening of schools, there are a minority of people who retort, ‘well, they can’t be closed forever!’ which isn’t addressing the actual issue.

Nothing wrong with raising concerns but if the government are not going to implement the things suggested on here what is the alternative?

I think there will be outbreaks for sure but a national wave where everything is overwhelmed - I’m not so sure. BUT it does rely on people following the measures/contact tracing and testing. I don’t think it’s the same case as in March where we now know it was circulating widely having been brought into the country separately over a thousand times and no one knew where the cases were.

There will not be a second wave - there will be ripples, which some people will claim are waves.

There will not be another national lockdown of that I am 100% certain.

The majority of office workers are working from home and are continuing to do so even though restrictions are lifted. This will be a huge factor in a second wave being smaller than the first.

But the government want them all back traveling on rush hour public transport into their city centre officers and spending money in the sandwich and coffee shops.

@modemeanmedian

There is no money to fund a second lock down. This isn't about wanting people to die or Tories being bastards (I'm not one btw) the stark reality is the government have thrown a staggering amount of money at the first lock down and don't have the funds to do this again.

If we're locked down without furlough then unemployment rate will be exponential.

I don't think we can afford a second lockdown either, but the government are about to waste over 100 billion on HS2. Tens of billions are pissed up the wall on Trident.

It's not that there's no money. The government are trying to get people working from home to go into offices and risk spreading the virus further to do exactly the same job.

Definitely higher cases over winter. The Govt won't call it a second spike even if it is! Local lockdowns as needed and masks compulsory everywhere. Stay at home when possible ad hoc school and workplace closures, thats my reckoning

But the government want them all back traveling on rush hour public transport into their city centre officers and spending money in the sandwich and coffee shops.

Well they want them back because how else will we have public transport system like we currently have. However Boris will not be making the decisions for big banks, tech firms, law firms etc. Also many people who used to think nothing of grabbing a sandwich may now not do so or to a lesser extent once back in the office.

Well they want them back because how else will we have public transport system like we currently have

It'll have to adapt in the short term.

We're about to waste over 100 billion on HS2.

The country simply cannot afford another national lockdown. Lessons have been, and are continuing to be learned, about the nature of the virus, although I think that a lot is still unclear. The government seems to have at last accepted the need for rapid decision making, instead of all that faffing about doing nothing, at the start of it all. As a country, most people now accept social distancing as a necessity, so the second wave, if it comes, should be smaller and more manageable.

@Zany15

The country simply cannot afford another national lockdown. Lessons have been, and are continuing to be learned, about the nature of the virus, although I think that a lot is still unclear. The government seems to have at last accepted the need for rapid decision making, instead of all that faffing about doing nothing, at the start of it all. As a country, most people now accept social distancing as a necessity, so the second wave, if it comes, should be smaller and more manageable.

I was impressed that the government were proactive over Spain yesterday, they've been too reactive on the whole.

But local lockdowns where there are spikes, face masks, social distancing, ban on mass gatherings and encouraging home working (rather than demanding everyone back to the office) will stop things getting out of hand from September when all the kids go back and everyone's come back from their jet setting summer holiday.

@Kurtain

When people raise legitimate concerns about the logistics of a full reopening of schools, there are a minority of people who retort, ‘well, they can’t be closed forever!’ which isn’t addressing the actual issue.

Nothing wrong with raising concerns but if the government are not going to implement the things suggested on here what is the alternative?

Reasoned discussion without some people trying to shut it down by assuming all teachers want schools to stay shut forever.

The government have made lots of amendments and u-turns on details and policies recently due to public response.

Oh the nightingale hospitals aka potemkine villages
Just theatre props

10 billion on HS2
They have made promises to their rich friends which depend on HS2 going ahead... it wouldn't be right to disappoint the rich people would it?

@Hamandcheeseandpickle

So people are basically saying we will have to just cope with a huge number of deaths to protect the economy? Surely there’s another way...

Yup

what is the alternative to a national lockdown in the event the virus gets out of control again

The alternative is what they could have done in the first place - shield the genuinely vulnerable and leave everyone else to get on with it

In the media-driven panic it's often forgotten that the huge majority of those who've sadly died were either very elderly or chronically ill, and that in any case they've died with Covid rather than of it. Even the government can't save everyone all the time, and with 100s of 1000s already at risk through the consequences of lockdown I believe it's time for a different approach

@Fedup21

I totally agree. Having concerns about the manner in which schools are returning is not the same as not wanting them to go back at all.

As a teacher who has nearly had a nervous breakdown trying to look after my own child and do online lessons all week, I am very keen to actually have children in school. But I still think the current plan is dreadful.

@Puzzledandpissedoff

what is the alternative to a national lockdown in the event the virus gets out of control again

The alternative is what they could have done in the first place - shield the genuinely vulnerable and leave everyone else to get on with it

In the media-driven panic it's often forgotten that the huge majority of those who've sadly died were either very elderly or chronically ill, and that in any case they've died with Covid rather than of it. Even the government can't save everyone all the time, and with 100s of 1000s already at risk through the consequences of lockdown I believe it's time for a different approach

Agreed. Johnson, his cronies and the media have really done a number on a large proportion of people in this country, who were terrified at the start of all this and continue to be terrified, when in reality, death is not the outcome for the majority.

I agree with other posters who feel there won't be another national lockdown but rather smaller localised ones.

I have skipped a few posts so please forgive if this has already been discussed but could the pandemic and the consequences be convenient to cover the fallout from Brexit in the new year? We've already experienced food shortages which are being predicted and the impact to the economy. It will sound better for the gov to put it on the virus than brexit.

but could the pandemic and the consequences be convenient to cover the fallout from Brexit in the new year? We've already experienced food shortages which are being predicted and the impact to the economy. It will sound better for the gov to put it on the virus than brexit.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if it came out that this is what Johnson is doing. I wouldn't trust that man to look after 5 quid of my money.

I do t believe one word that comes out of his mouth and Hancock is right next to him on that score. I don't trust any of them.

How many times does it need to be said that shielding the vulnerable and letting everyone else go about as normal doesn't work

If we take the obese, the diabetic and the asthmatic as vulnerable, enough to protect the NHS, you are looking at 30% of the working population. Plus all the over 70's

Are you going to keep paying them? Who is going to cover their jobs? How does the economy cope with so many people not participating? Are you going to send them food and medicine so they don't have to shop? Who is going to do the child and other care that the over 70's usually provide? Do you suppose that other countries would allow their citizens free travel from the uk t9 support our tourist industry in that situation?

@feetfreckles thank you, I have often queried the ‘shield the vulnerable, everyone else carry on’ logic. Too many people are vulnerable to Covid for that to make sense.

Has the government actually announced their plan for a potential second wave clearly and succinctly? All I can remember is BJ admitting he hadn’t read the major scientific paper that predicted 120000 deaths

The first wave was due in large part to infected patients being sent into care homes which acted as petrol dishes and health workers having no PPE.

Hopefully this government have learne their bloody lesson!

Add to that the fact that right now we are now even close to ‘normal’ societal functioning.
Large swathes still working from home, whole industries still closed, public transport at a fraction of capacity, no pupils in schools or students in universities, no mass gatherings, very little travel abroad, some soctal distancing, some mask wearing etc etc

We’re in no way operating like Feb/March with no plans to return to that.