Are we a couple of weeks behind Spain and France?

[BKCRMP]

If Spain is v.likely in a second wave and France not far behind them does that mean we are also heading straight in to one again?

Will schools open regardless this September?

Plus it would be politically unacceptable to actively pursue herd immunity without a good treatment option imo. Especially amongst conservative voters given their age profile.

It is worrying that countries like France and Spain have resurgences. This was always likely as even when lockdown started there were graphs showing flattering curves then increases in winter etc. In lots of countries people relax as they feel less threatened and the virus has spread particularly in younger adults who are at least risk statistically speaking and whose social lives are probably more disrupted than older adults. This has happened in Israel, the us and now spain.

Schools reopening was always going to be a massive challenge which is why pubs have opened first rather than priority. It is increasingly obvious that outdoor events like blm protests beaches and maybe even cheltenham are low risk but indoors are a different challenge . Schools are a challenge because they are so crowded. Anyone who has worked in one will know that in lots of cases SD in them will be all but impossible in some classrooms and when moving around school. It's all very well saying adults can stay 2m from everyone but how many times have you been in a supermarket recently and been able to do this. It is impossible because it relies on everyone around you to do the same and teenagers do not take it seriously.

Community cases seem to have largely stopped falling at least and this is a concern because there are more relaxations on the way in August and it is hard to see schools opening in full not leading to more new cases in staff and students with those students then acting as vectors for the disease in the community.

Let's hope that the talk about colds and flu in schools giving some cross immunity is true because it is hard to see schools bring able to stay open continuously otherwise. I worry for colleagues in their 50 s and 60s and am at risk myself. I honestly hope we find out that schools don't lead to cases and we can have a term of normality but science is science, the virus is going nowhere and the way the government has handled things so far is not reassuring.

But the nhs are showing less deaths than the media are reporting? Most of the deaths are backdated. Yesterday they reported 8 deaths that hadn’t even tested positive.

@Mummypig2020

But the nhs are showing less deaths than the media are reporting? Most of the deaths are backdated. Yesterday they reported 8 deaths that hadn’t even tested positive.

UK cases as stubbornly high, and look to be rising again, but presumably like all other countries mostly amongst the young.

Where are they rising?

The seven day rolling average is slightly up but because testing data is behind it is not yet known if this is due to more people being tested (this would be good news) or a higher percentage of tests coming back positive (this would be bad news). I watched Independent Sage, this woman explains the stats mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1286661020887515137

Ah yes. Everyone should follow Independent Sage to have a better idea of the problems we are facing and where our response is falling short. Even most SAGE members have gone rogue and if you follow them it’s also quite enlightening.

Our world in data has some good graphs about testing and case numbers. Agree with PP that the UK cases are stubbornly high, but we are testing widely and in potential hot spots asymptomatic people can get tests too, so hopefully we're picking up more cases. We still have a very low percentage of positive tests ( in the same group as Australia and NZ but obvs bigger actual numbers), shown on the map.

Cathy being green like Aus does feel quite good. That is lower than I thought.

@cathyandclare

Our world in data has some good graphs about testing and case numbers. Agree with PP that the UK cases are stubbornly high, but we are testing widely and in potential hot spots asymptomatic people can get tests too, so hopefully we're picking up more cases. We still have a very low percentage of positive tests ( in the same group as Australia and NZ but obvs bigger actual numbers), shown on the map.

I don't agree we are testing widely at all. Italy was testing all health workers weekly many months ago. We STILL don't do this.

Our tracing is very weak, due to a national system set up by a private company with no experience instead of boosting local public health teams.

The tracing is apparently WEAKEST in the hotspot areas.

We are not doing well. I know it'd be comforting if we were, but false complacency won't help.

Hong Kong has made masks compulsory again on public transport, gatherings back to limit of 4. Employers being encouraged to facilitate WFH & restaurants compulsory closed in evening. If you watch the video, everyone is wearing masks everywhere you look, yet HKers are being accused of "losing interest" in controlling the virus. Funny how the accusations of recklessness by the public are same as I read on MN daily.

Some of you really need to come to terms with the fact you might die - and not through old age or via “preventable illness”.

We really ARE in unprecedented times.

For the last 70 years in the UK we’ve lived without the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse breathing down our necks. So here’s an unpleasant reminder.

Have an afternoon binge-watching Horrible Histories and gain some perspective.

Or you could weld yourselves into your homes until you’ve gone fucking crackers.

Funny isn’t it looking at what HK calls a resurgence when we’re averaging about 2k new infections a day in U.K.

@InsaneInTheViralMembrane

Some of you really need to come to terms with the fact you might die - and not through old age or via “preventable illness”.

We really ARE in unprecedented times.

For the last 70 years in the UK we’ve lived without the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse breathing down our necks. So here’s an unpleasant reminder.

Have an afternoon binge-watching Horrible Histories and gain some perspective.

Or you could weld yourselves into your homes until you’ve gone fucking crackers.

I think we’re all well aware of the fact we’re immortal. Nobody is locking themselves in going crackers, in fact by the tone of your post it seems perhaps you are struggling with this situation.

Some of us are quite reasonably upset how the U.K. Government has handled this and are aware of the impending health and economic shockwaves as a result of this incompetence. It’s also rather disconcerting that a fair few seem unaware of what is happening. That is all.

As you stated, you believe you’re immortal and that governments control novel virii.

@InsaneInTheViralMembrane No one is going crackers. We are simply talking about how to control this in the coming months to avoid being back where we were in March. If wearing a mask inside where there are large groups gathered can prevent it then why not. Look at Germany. They are controlling it successfully.

Typo.....not immortal. They’ve done an appalling job yes and continue to do so.

There are 44 countries in Europe. Of those 44 countries, 2 have seen an increase in cases over recent weeks and suddently, loads of people on here are shouting about the UK entering a second wave in a few weeks time? What makes you think we will go the same way as those 2 European countries rather than the other 42? Its not like we are doing anyything drastically different to say Germany, Austria, Italy, Denmark, Norway etc etc. Besides, its to be expected that cases will increase initially as things open up more and its a case of getting on top of the increases quickly, hence the move to quarantine etc. That doesn't mean that things have or even will reach unmanagemeble proportions again.

Agree with PP that the UK cases are stubbornly high You mean English cases.

it also really pissed me off that they managed to open pubs and shops and nail salons and all our local playgrounds were still locked until just this weekend. our kids have a garden but i can't imagine how this has been for those who don't have any outdoor play space. the priorities are clear as day – keep shopping, keep working, don't give two shits about the kids whose education and mental health is suffering.

Agree with this. I'm not entirely sure why the goverment seems to think that things like indoor trampolining centres and climbing walls etc (which are allowed to open) differ in anyway to soft play centres other than adults also partake in these activities too as a form of exercise. What makes a soft play centre, with all there easy to wipe down mats and slides more dangerous. They can use a fogger to decontaminate the place regularly just like cinemas and such. Trampoling centres have closed off there foam pits - soft play centres can close off there ball pits. Whats the difference. Why are they deemed to be such a dangerous place in comparisaon to everywhere else. Its starting to feel like this govenment has a profound dislike of small children.

If the cases are up, the deaths come about three weeks after. Those people comparing deaths at the moment to the UK, aren't comparing the real picture.

if you want a test due to having symptoms you can’t get one again.
Back to that old trick. has to be a pressing “clinical” need.
So my guess is we are at the same.

Soft play centres are complete germ pits. There is no way soft play centres can possibly keep up with disinfecting when they have kids climbing around all day, screaming, slobbering etc etc. The ball pits are the worst - kids putting balls in their mouths, it’s impossible to clean properly.

They are human petri dishes at the best of times. Kids tend to run around soft play on their own in close contact with other kids, adults are not watching them and cleaning up behind them - the adults sit on the side having a coffee and a chat. I have three young children but I completely agree with them staying shut.

There have been many studies done on the amount of germs in soft play.

Soft play completely different to a cinema. All that plastic that’s been handled etc.

We are avoiding indoor places though still as germs spread more indoors.

You don't think the HK situation has anything to do with tensions between the UK and China? Or chinas desire to exert control in the region?