Are we a couple of weeks behind Spain and France?

[BKCRMP]

If Spain is v.likely in a second wave and France not far behind them does that mean we are also heading straight in to one again?

Will schools open regardless this September?

All of this: v v v

I’m not quite sure why some people have such a tough time with reality. We’re facing the biggest health and economic crisis the world has faced for 100 years yet everyone thinks it’ll be back to normal September. We’re all going to have to adapt. There will be lots of positives to come from this eventually but we’re in for a tough few years. There’s a lot that kids can learn from this and lots of positives too. It’s not negative to be a realist and there are plenty of adaptations we can all make. The Education Sector will change as a result of this and that may not be a bad thing.

I'm gonna go fucking insane reading this hysterical shite. Goodbye Mumsnet. Will return when the pandemic is over and sanity returns

Is this the new ‘it’s only flu’?

Why on earth did they open nightclubs?!

Who's opened nightclubs? The UK hasn't - have we ...

i have preschool twins and a year 6 and we are at breaking point. neither me or DH are furloughed so trying to carry on working with no childcare and no family help has almost broken us. also, the DCs need school and the external input, Y6 DD especially. i agree that schools should be prioritised over everything else. close the pubs and shops if you have to but children can't miss any more time in school.

it also really pissed me off that they managed to open pubs and shops and nail salons and all our local playgrounds were still locked until just this weekend. our kids have a garden but i can't imagine how this has been for those who don't have any outdoor play space. the priorities are clear as day – keep shopping, keep working, don't give two shits about the kids whose education and mental health is suffering.

@pontypridd

Who's opened nightclubs? The UK hasn't - have we ...

Spain opened night clubs, presumably to encourage tourists. It's only pubs and cafes/restaurants allowed to open in the UK, with restrictions.

snowsuit playgrounds could have been opened weeks ago, it's the council's responsibility.

I am very concerned about my dcs going back to school, as l live with and look after my parents both 85, my father with weak lungs and my mum with mild dementia, the thought of my dm having to isolate would be more than she could understand, so impossible, and it would be horribly traumatic. My dads lungs wouldn't cope.
Yes my dcs need to continue with their education for their wellbeing, but balanced against the above risk to my parents, it would be a minor blip in their whole lives.

We have been in total lockdown since end of Feb, working from home, which can continue indefinately, so school is a huge risk factor...

I shall watch closely and make my own decision, but cannot see how cases will not rise hugely once winter sets in.

Every report by scientists and Doctors, and following autopsies, has shown that this is so much worse than l first thought, blood clots on lungs of even mild cases, neurological damage, heart damage, chronic fatigue, symptoms lasting months in some cases. People may be sick of hearing about it...we all are.. but it is here to stay and very serious.

It must be really hard. As you say make your own informed decisions, that in itself is a good life lesson for your kids. Each person should make decisions based on the latest data and relevant to their own situation. Don’t be pressured into feeling you need to do x,y,z because school/Gov say. Most don’t have a clue.

@Dragongirl10

I am very concerned about my dcs going back to school, as l live with and look after my parents both 85, my father with weak lungs and my mum with mild dementia, the thought of my dm having to isolate would be more than she could understand, so impossible, and it would be horribly traumatic. My dads lungs wouldn't cope. Yes my dcs need to continue with their education for their wellbeing, but balanced against the above risk to my parents, it would be a minor blip in their whole lives.

We have been in total lockdown since end of Feb, working from home, which can continue indefinately, so school is a huge risk factor...

I shall watch closely and make my own decision, but cannot see how cases will not rise hugely once winter sets in.

Every report by scientists and Doctors, and following autopsies, has shown that this is so much worse than l first thought, blood clots on lungs of even mild cases, neurological damage, heart damage, chronic fatigue, symptoms lasting months in some cases. People may be sick of hearing about it...we all are.. but it is here to stay and very serious.

@Dragongirl10

Your situation sounds horrendous and I do sympathise with you.

However your situation is not the norm and whilst people would feel the same in your shoes, the majority aren’t.

Sadly you’re in a no win situation and I can completely understand why you want every precaution taken - but there are so many suffering indirect affects of covid.

I don’t know what the answer is, but everyone is suffering to a degree

I think we are probably not far off, we are still seeing an average of 64 deaths a day. However the government are so worried about the economic situation that they will bury their heads in the sand. Meanwhile parents will have to cope with trying to balance childcare and people in care homes hidden away.

I agree with a PP that getting children back to school needs to be a priority not going on a foreign holiday.

I've said all along that there will be a rise and schools won't be back in Sept - I really hope i'm wrong.

In spain the cases went down to 200-300 a day and they are now seeing a rise . ours have never really dropped below 700 cases a day So I can't see how it's not going to surge ahead again.

I noticed in the news earlier that they references the fact that all the deaths announced today had underlying health conditions - one can only wonder if this is to stop us feeling worried and get out there spending £££

I think @Blankscreen makes good points above - the number of cases we have each day never really dropped low enough. It felt almost like the government just ran out of steam and wanted to move on.

We haven't seen major issues as we've started coming out of lockdown to mostly outdoor activities. But September looks worrying to me as the activities will move indoors, plus school, plus work.

The one thing I hate is being accused of wanting a second wave because I am worried about a second wave. This is just silly, I really don't want any increase in cases or deaths..

@MushMonster the evidence shows that under 11s catch and spread the disease less. That's why there's a difference in primary / secondary.

@Oaktree55 on an earlier post you said that it's only the disadvantaged kids that are suffering by not being in school? You can't possibly mean that's ok though? Why shouldn't they be prioritized - this is their entire future at stake.

Disadvantaged families can't cope with another national lockdown. The economic impact will also kill people.

So let's do what we can; wash and sanitise hands, wear a mask, social distance, and protect the vulnerable. Then we might just be able to hold this off till there's a vaccine.

I think its becoming more clear that lockdowns don't really work. All it does is delay the inevitible and short of completely sealing borders indefinitely, which isn't going to happen, its impossible to keep it out. The best way to deal with this is aggressive testing and contact tracing to ensure that positive cases are isolated early to avoid the spread. But that doesn't look it will happen in most places either.

@FromEden

I think its becoming more clear that lockdowns don't really work. All it does is delay the inevitible and short of completely sealing borders indefinitely, which isn't going to happen, its impossible to keep it out. The best way to deal with this is aggressive testing and contact tracing to ensure that positive cases are isolated early to avoid the spread. But that doesn't look it will happen in most places either.

I think we also need masks and social distancing, we do need to try to prevent transmission.

We could have increased family contact but continue with social distancing with wider contacts.

Imo the government for ideological reasons has resisted investing in person power at local authority level to help with track and trace plus other wider public health activity. We have spent a lot on recruiting all these people who are making a very tiny number of contacts each, very expensive and seemingly very ineffective.

I'm so tired of how badly the government is handling things. They are so indecisive.

Basically yes. In a few weeks we will be in their position. Maybe worse?

@FromEden
Agree with this. I was always sceptical about the lockdown approach (beyond an initial period to build up nhs capacity) because I couldn’t see how we would get out of it in any meaningful way without cases rising again as restrictions are eased. I could well be proved wrong on this and hope I am but if other European countries which had managed to get cases really low end up in a second wave shortly after reopening that just shows how difficult it is to use lockdowns to control the virus long term. If we did have a national lockdown again how would we get out of it and if we don’t open schools again in September when do we reopen them? To follow this strategy through we are looking at very severe restrictions on life until enough people are vaccinated or the virus burns itself out and there must be a point where that does more harm than it prevents.

We are in the process of destroying our economy and society to save lives at the moment but if all we are actually doing is spreading out deaths over a longer period of time the damage caused seems less justified. One estimate I saw recently is that lockdown itself will cost about 200k lives in the long term (though clearly that’s almost impossible to measure).

This obviously depends on when a vaccine or viable treatment is available. If it is relatively soon it might have been worth it as the stalling caused by lockdowns probably will have saved lives but we could be looking at a much longer time frame.

And masks now seem to be seen as a panacea. Spain has very widespread use of masks. If Spain does end up in a second wave I’m not sure that our response should focus around increased mask use as seems to be suggested here.

I don’t see how Britain can avoid a second wave without entering into an extremely strict lockdown or a prolonged period of regular localised lockdowns and strict travel restrictions. I think a decision needs to be made about whether Britain wants to attempt to suppress the virus in the hope of an effective treatment/vaccine or to prioritise economic recovery.

Also mid 50s and we have all been shielding together here (1 primary, 1 secondary age child). I am taking early retirement and I want to be able to have my children schooling from home, if needed, for the next 2 terms without losing their school places. Then we can see how the land lies for the future.

My 2 seem to have weathered home schooling pretty well, and we are able to teach them (though I wouldn't want to commit to this for the next 6 or 10 years). If they stay at home then there is more space and more teacher time for the other children. I just need to know what ground they need to cover from the schools.

I also don't see why schools can't get together to organise and beef up provision for home learning for the winter and spring terms, a sort of super Oak Academy. And also, many of those teachers who have been shielding - they could do remote provision and do some focussed tutoring,

The resources that we are conserving by not going out or going on holiday, we should put those resources into bolstering the education and well being of our community.

I really think schools opening has to be the absolute priority now.

I have three children - one autistic for whom this has been an absolute disaster, most independent living skills gone, no engagement with learning at all. One has been okayish, got on with her school work. Youngest, still at primary school is angry and lethargic and has lost all her enthusiasm for doing things outside the house. She was the most energetic and active of all them.

This is a disaster for children's mental health - and my kids are pretty privileged in the big picture.

I imagine and hope that there will be local lockdowns. The idea of all schools shutting again is horrendous

If Spain does end up in a second wave I’m not sure that our response should focus around increased mask use as seems to be suggested here.

I don't think masks are a panacea. But we have to take a serious look at the countries that did get cases right down. Masks, distancing, testing.

England didn't do what it needed to do and it still isn't.

We run the risk of continuing to argue between 'schools must be open' and 'schools won't be safe' when the government could, if they could be bothered, find ways to make schools open and safer (safer not 100% safe).

I don't think we will. I feel that because our government did not do a strict lockdown they were going for herd immunity. I may be wrong but I think more people have had it in this country than we think

We just have to carry on as best we can with masks and better hygiene, and think of the long term, as this virus hasn't gone away and is here to stay, and we have to modify how we live and work for good, not keep shutting schools down.

@Rayn

I don't think we will. I feel that because our government did not do a strict lockdown they were going for herd immunity. I may be wrong but I think more people have had it in this country than we think

Whilst it would be lovely if lots of us had had it, as it would mean very high levels of asymptomatic and mild cases - yes, you are wrong. Research shows only about a single figure percentage of people have had it. We need 60% for herd immunity!