Are we a couple of weeks behind Spain and France?

[BKCRMP]

If Spain is v.likely in a second wave and France not far behind them does that mean we are also heading straight in to one again?

Will schools open regardless this September?

Cases are so low in Scotland 1more I hope not.

Oaktree I understand what you are saying re exponential growth. However we peaked pre-lockdown due to change in behaviour. We are still restricting in some ways.

Also no nightclubs here which I think they opened in Spain so not completely the same.

I desperately hope not. My youngest dd is suffering from not being at school, she is autistic and this has really had a negative impact on her (before anyone jumps on me about not caring about vulnerable people, I am clinically vulnerable myself but it doesn't stop me hoping they don't shut the schools again).

Probably..Its deffo on the rise again.
I think the UK will just try snd battle on (I can't see how we could do lock down again) with Boris ignoring the inevitable until September just as the schools and unis are going back, when it will be so apparent and impossible to ignore and we'll be too late all over again....and welcome Covid19 round 2!!

I guess this is why masks were mandated. This was seen coming by blind monkeys. Tourists will return from Europe and there will be much more COVID in the wild - and amongst different populations from those it swept through following the winter ski season. So a new subset of the population to sweep through.

To anyone thinking a second lockdown is needed... I hope you have a big pot of savings as there won't be a furlough scheme this time!

I don’t want a second lockdown, it would be a disaster. And I agree, this time we will be on our own.
Want us to do everything we can to minimise chances of that. Right now it’s not inevitable but cases in U.K. are already ticking up but controllable with really effective track & trace & isolate & local lockdown measures. What we do in September will be the decider.

@MarshaBradyo

Oaktree I understand what you are saying re exponential growth. However we peaked pre-lockdown due to change in behaviour. We are still restricting in some ways.

Also no nightclubs here which I think they opened in Spain so not completely the same.

Yes agree. However if you do a quick search on growing evidence of how this spreads (recent confirmed spread over 8m aerosols in German meat packing plant) and infective virus being shown from aerosols over 1 hour in air it’s obvious as soon as people are indoors more (be that nightclubs or offices/relatives houses or schools) this will go up fast again like a match to tinder and our tracing system will collapse. Unfortunately.

Well Boris has done his usual "guaranteeing" that school will be open, so that means a high chance of not.

Though tbf it is all such an unknown thing for everyone. Who knows where we will be in 6 weeks?

What are people observing? What is actually happening?

What I'm seeing is a lot of compliance wearing masks in shops (almost everyone in my local supermarket was wearing one today and an odd one or two not wearing one may have been in an exclusion group), quite a stringent control of those not wearing a mask, security on the door asking people if they can wear a mask or please consider not coming in unless they're prepared to buy a pack of masks - big pile of them at the entrance.

Shops aren't wall to wall people, restaurants aren't all packed out day after day. The numbers from the Bournemouth beach debacle haven't shown a massive surge or spike in new infections.

So why are we suddenly thinking Wave Two is definitely going to happen, all the "why aren't we learning" yada yada. Are people just trying to find a problem or do they have real concerns, based on real facts?

UK is doing well in general, many many people are trying to do the right things. It isn't perfect, but please let's stop the hating, get on board keeping safe and stop adding to the negativity. People seem to want instant results, 100% certainty everything black and white all the time, it's crazy.

Oaktree yes to indoor I hope that wfh still high is a good break. This started earlier than lock down for many and I think it helped.

Schools are tricky. I feel like the jury is still out. I’ve heard about differing reports from various countries with schools open. I know we tend to pack students in, in comparison though.

It does spread in homes, although again it seemed indoor crowds took the hit with a high spreader with mild symptoms being the main culprit.

But this is just patchy stuff I’ve picked up from R4 and here, so always ready to read more on it from others.

I think masks, hand sanitiser and keeping as far away as possible ( though not the 2 m) will be imposed, they may do only part time, and most likely no canteen. Mine went back in July, but the had reduced hours and no lunch to avoid contact in the canteen. Also had staggered entry times

@daisychain01

What are people observing? What is actually happening?

What I'm seeing is a lot of compliance wearing masks in shops (almost everyone in my local supermarket was wearing one today and an odd one or two not wearing one may have been in an exclusion group), quite a stringent control of those not wearing a mask, security on the door asking people if they can wear a mask or please consider not coming in unless they're prepared to buy a pack of masks - big pile of them at the entrance.

Shops aren't wall to wall people, restaurants aren't all packed out day after day. The numbers from the Bournemouth beach debacle haven't shown a massive surge or spike in new infections.

So why are we suddenly thinking Wave Two is definitely going to happen, all the "why aren't we learning" yada yada. Are people just trying to find a problem or do they have real concerns, based on real facts?

UK is doing well in general, many many people are trying to do the right things. It isn't perfect, but please let's stop the hating, get on board keeping safe and stop adding to the negativity. People seem to want instant results, 100% certainty everything black and white all the time, it's crazy.

Read up on the growing data of how this spreads. Outdoors isn’t risky. We’ve recently come out of lockdown and have in the main been outdoors and schools in the main have been closed. Opening secondary schools was a big factor in Israel second wave. Most of Europe has not opened secondary schools yet. Countries that have did so in the context of low transmission and more robust policies than the joke of the U.K. guidance.

Wtf! That’s crazy!!

@daisychain01 I agree, a large proportion of people are being sensible & that will have big impact in cutting transmission chains. It gives me hope.
But September & Schools re-opening really worries me. Current plan is everyone back, no PPE, no social distancing, crowded indoors for 6 hours a day plus crowded School buses & trains. It’s the exact opposite of what we’re all doing in the rest of our lives to stay safe. It’s not being unduly negative to worry about that, just realistic - we’re not going to beat this by putting out positive vibes but by being proactive, smart & sensible

I am not sure you are looking at the graphs in the same way... Spain achieved 0 deaths for quite some time, there have only been 17 deaths since 14th June while the UK continues to see average daily deaths of around 80 and has yet to see consecutive 0 death days. Yes there has been a surge of cases in Spain but this surge is still lower than the number of cases in the UK. As for Framce, they continue to see daily deaths at a lower rate than than the UK with a mild resurgence in cases but still lower than the UK which has not seen the first wave end. Forget about looking elsewhere... the UK has not bottomed out yet before relaxing measures.

I am not sure we will cope with schools not reopening, Phychologically. I think unnecessary travels should be banned. Staying as local as possible strikes me like a way forward. And I do see most people complying with the rules, which matches the local numbers being quite low (thanks goodness!)

Could the Zoe app be of use with track and trace? It's so easy and quick to use. I don't know why it's not being promoted by the government.

I believe they offered it to the government but were turned down as the government said they were working on their own app (which cost a fortune only to then be ditched).

You couldn’t make it up.

@Mummypig2020

I think the mental health of children/teenagers are more important than the risk of the virus.

Yep. Me too.

@Oaktree55 outdoors isn't risky? What about the Cheltenham Cup that was outdoors.

You missed my point. The U.K. population's behaviour as a whole has changed massively since Feb/Mar. People had hardly heard of the words social distancing, aerosoling, even hand-washing ha ha, back then. In general people have changed, they have become more vigilant, so that will in itself alter the rate of spread of the infection. Population behaviour is what has taken time to catch up.

I do thingk we need to stop being so doom and gloom about this, this is why this site is somewhere I only drop by every so often nowadays, it's so bloody miserable!! No wonder people's anxiety is through the roof, and for good reason, all this speculation and agonising over stats, most of which are inaccurate, untrustworthy or only tell one part of the "spin".

I’d imagine that a lot if the spread at Cheltenham was in the bars.

[quote mac12]@daisychain01 I agree, a large proportion of people are being sensible & that will have big impact in cutting transmission chains. It gives me hope.
But September & Schools re-opening really worries me. Current plan is everyone back, no PPE, no social distancing, crowded indoors for 6 hours a day plus crowded School buses & trains. It’s the exact opposite of what we’re all doing in the rest of our lives to stay safe. It’s not being unduly negative to worry about that, just realistic - we’re not going to beat this by putting out positive vibes but by being proactive, smart & sensible[/quote]
If there was a "support-like" button on this site, I would give it to you,

My sister is concerned about her boys going back in Sept, but we can only watch and wait and maybe give our children enough preparation beforehand that they are a lot more aware in schools. Kids are adaptive, and they also constantly amaze me at how they rise to the occasion and do what is needed when it needs to happen.

It's impossible to predict what will happen in Sept, but if people are t his worried in July, heaven only knows what state they will be by the time schools are due to open.

Also if anything the spin we are getting from Gov is downplaying everything as they want everyone spending before Autumn hits. It’s not negative it’s realistic. I’d imagine behaviour had changed in Spain just as much too. It’s a very transmissible virus even Asia struggles to contain.

so long as the NHS is not overrun then we should just carry on

covid is not going away - we have to live with it

flatten the curve

Masks in secondary schools and further education institutions here is surely necessary. It is common sense if the science is to be believed. Either that or just wait for the cases to start up and then shutdowns begin again.

Why is there such a rush to shut schools? Surely everything - pubs, restaurants, gyms, non essential shops should shut so that schools could stay open? The risk to children by not being in school is enormous. The risk of not going to a pub? Not so much 🤨