Ive just read the whole of this thread and think theres some nonsense on here and some real omissions that are important to note.
At the start of the thread theres people saying its just like March all over again with Spain and France just ahead of us etc etc.
Its not. Can we just get thst straight.
Back in March the uk hadn't got a clue how many cases we had, we had a complete lack of PPE and we had no idea what we were dealing with and how to treat the disease.
4 months on and things have changed.
We have a much better idea of number of cases. Our track and trace leaves a lot to be desired (and i think its still below where it should be, due to lack of boots on the ground) but we have it and we are picking up outbreaks and where/why they are occurring.
We have PPE available to all health care staff and social care staff who need it. We've a very obvious scandal about how care homes were left exposed and it means we are less likely to expose our most vulnerable in the same way. Plus the unfortunate thing about having so many excess deaths early on is there are fewer vulnerable people who can die of it (we are currently below the normal rate of deaths for this time of year). Our protocols were far too slow to get set up efficiently and work but we do now have them.
The purpose of lockdown in the uk was never to stop the disease and eradicate it. That has been the approach of some other countries but i think that has two negative side effects: the public expectation that because its 'gone' that the crisis was over and almost lulling everyone into a false sense of security. I dont believe eradication was ever likely by the time it was obviously widespread across Europe. The uk approach was merely to slow it down until we were better placed to cope with the disease and manage its effects. Its an approach thats far more realistic.
We are now in a position where death rates are significantly improving as we understand how to treat the disease better. We are able to identify those cases which are most likely to be serious based on symptoms and we have treatments which are helping patients respond better with fewer problems. Its a long way off being an 'effective' treatment but our understanding of it being a vascular disease rather than a pure respiratory one is a huge step forward. We understand better who is more at risk, and why too.
In terms if behavioural change, its a mixed bag with some refusing to follow the guidelines, the government sending mixed messages and businesses and the public failing to trust the information they are given and are remaining cautious. People have changed their habits though. They are mixing in cities less where they can. The most social and mobile people who commuted most are not mixing outside smaller communities in the same way. Thats hugely significant because thats about movement of the disease across the country. Yes we do have people going on holidays now, which might be storing the problem for some weeks time, but people are outside doing that to a much greater degree than normal.
The uk took a 2m rule which is psychologically significant. Other countries took a smaller distance. And whilst weve now reduced it to 1m plus, and lots of people dont understand how much 2m is, lots of people got into a habit under the initial rule which was more cautious than elsewhere and many are still largely doing 2m (or what they think is 2m) where they can.
As adherence gradually does break down we are seeing incidents like the change of quarantine rules to Spain, which will remind us and refocus minds to not be a dick. In someways the rule change isnt just about restricting the number of cases coming into the uk (spain doesn't have a significantly higher number of cases than the uk right now). The rule change also has a psychological affect in reminding people to continue to take the measures seriously and to distance even as thing change back 'to normal'.
Our recovery and return to normal is proving harder for the british to do than elsewhere despite the government telling us too. Our patterns of movement have changed more than a lot of other places in Europe because of how they were before.
I believe parts of Spain have been reported to have an r rate of over 2.5. Weve seen nothing close to this in the uk yet.
Fwiw ive always said i think we will see an uptick in cases in October ish but i dont think its something to panic about just yet. Another couple of months down the line and who knows where we will be in terms of what treatments we will have, if we reflect on the progress weve made so far. Our research has been particularly good and thats a major plus.
We aren't going to have a vaccine ready and being distributed before Christmas, but it will be soon after and we have a good idea who needs it most first.
There is a growing consensus that there is a greater level of natural immunity in the public than previously thought due to t cells and not needing antibodies.
My point is, there is plenty to worry about on this but its still significantly better than the picture in March.
Going forward i think we still have a lot of problems (which aren't currently being acknowledged) and i suspect the reality of a rise in cases to deal with, but i dont believe it will be as frightening as previously as a lot of the fear was about 'the unknown'. Our mentality is also different because of the economic reality and hardship many will be facing. We will have to get on with it as best we can rather than having a blanket lockdown. Things will look different in winter too. Our desire to be outside will drop and our priorities will shift. Even for those who are at risk or anxious.
I dont take a view thats inline with many here. I just dont think it will be as bad as many previously feared. Thats not to say it may not be bloody rough over the winter months and im not sure everyone is psychologically prepared for that because they are already fatigued by it all. I just think its going to be a very different picture of events and issues to round 1 and im not convinced that enough people have got their heads around that yet.
I am more optimistic than i was in terms of covid itself. Im now more concerned about the growing related issues and how this has some months to run its course - with steps backwards - which will come as a shock to, too many.