Are we a couple of weeks behind Spain and France?

[BKCRMP]

If Spain is v.likely in a second wave and France not far behind them does that mean we are also heading straight in to one again?

Will schools open regardless this September?

@nellodee

The issue is, if the goal is to keep schools open as much as possible, then the way to do this may well not be to open them fully.

This is exactly my point. Making it unsafe by having no SD etc. won't fix any of the issues and will create worse disruption.

For those with MH issues especially adding rational health worries on top won't help.

On this year's exam pressure could be totally removed by the fuckwit government actually having a plan for assessments 2021. On the overall issue - never going to be addressed.

The answer is not full time school, 30 in a class, no SD.

On the unequal outcomes - our current school system is one of the drivers of this. We need a whole national rethink. We won't get one. But I don't think loads fewer WC kids will become barristers in 10 years if schools are socially distanced for six months now.

[quote mac12]@daisychain01 I agree, a large proportion of people are being sensible & that will have big impact in cutting transmission chains. It gives me hope.
But September & Schools re-opening really worries me. Current plan is everyone back, no PPE, no social distancing, crowded indoors for 6 hours a day plus crowded School buses & trains. It’s the exact opposite of what we’re all doing in the rest of our lives to stay safe. It’s not being unduly negative to worry about that, just realistic - we’re not going to beat this by putting out positive vibes but by being proactive, smart & sensible[/quote]
Schools reopened in The Netherlands back in May. Adults have to socially distance but kids (of any age) don’t. You can wear a mask if you want to but don’t have to. Masks are mandatory on public transport but people are encouraged to walk, cycle or drive in rather than use it anyway. There hasn’t been a massive spike/second wave. So I really think people are overreacting/overthinking this.

@cosycatsocks

Of course there will be some sort of furlough scheme in the event of a second government mandated lockdown, politically there would have to be. They can literally print money! Then hold on to your hats for painful inflation which will be needed to erode all the debt.

Yeah because printing extra money worked SO well the last time Germany tried it. Have you not heard of hyperinflation?

Of course not, because as our glorious leader never tires of telling us, we've dealt with corona virus in every world-beating way possible and we won't know ourselves by November.

@baroqueandblue - ah, but we are truly world beating (other than for the US and Brazil)

On wc becoming barristers I’d be interested in seeing data on how part time schooling would impact jobs of parents, especially now furlough is ending.

UK hasn't even finished the 1st Wave yet

@Itisasecret

It doesn’t matter how much people try or want to jump on me. I am glad children are back to school, my colleagues are glad. I feel safe, I feel that our setting has adapted to the ‘new normal’ in a safe way for everyone.

I think currently, in general children are at risk of more harm being at home permanently than at school. MN posters in general have a very linear view of the real world.

In the real world, I’ve yet to see anyone who works in education kicking off about going back, it’s just not happening. People are getting on with it and are looking forward to going back to some kind of normal. I only see these really strong views on MN and in the tabloids.

It’s ok to work in a school and feel positive about going back, not hysterical and demanding schools stay online forever more. That doesn’t mean people haven’t assessed risk or make them a bad educator. People are allowed to be ok with it!

Totally agree, and I am a teacher too.

We aren’t a culture who prize taking responsibility for the collective good and too many take pride in refusing to wear masks, stick to distancing advice etc so we really aren’t in a good situation if we are heading for a spike in cases. Johnson has done everything too little, too late and not well enough at every single stage of the COVID nightmare.

Sadly, I think you’re right

@Zeewest

Our borders are open we are still letting people in so why would there be a second spike. Come one come all bring your virus with you

If anything any visitors to the UK will bring the R number down seeing as virtually every other country is doing better...

And to answer the original question...I think there will be a second wave but predictions are saying not until at least January. I also think that the second wave, when it comes, won’t be as bad, as people are more aware (handwashing, SD etc).

No, I’d say (and I live in France) that you’re ahead of us end still being lied to. They’re still perusing the herd immunity stance, it saddens me that I won’t see friends and family in Uk this side of 2022

Of course we are, this virus 🦠 is not gone , until we get a vaccine then we just have to love with it. Edinburgh has just cancelled Hogmanay this year!! So at the end of July they have cancelled, what does that tell you the Scottish government know this is not the end of it. We need the vaccine, but as we can’t yet find a cure for the common cold I don’t hold out much hope.

Live with it not love with it Sorry on my fifth gin!!

If you notice the psychological approaches the Gov has used “schools won’t be shutting” in March.........response from public “why are schools shut elsewhere and not here?” Few days later ok we’re shutting schools. No masks in schools “surely we need masks in schools”.............Gov ok kids can wear masks. There’s been a clear attempt to get a significant % of the public calling for what they actually want us to do but don’t want to be seen to be forcing.

@Oaktree55 - I think you may be crediting the government with a strategic sophistication it doesn’t have rather than shambolic shifts it certainly does!

@Mummypig2020

I think the mental health of children/teenagers are more important than the risk of the virus.

100% agree. We cant keep the schools shut/distant learning potentially for another year!

I'm no expert, but have been keeping an eye on some of the figures.

We had 54 deaths on 23rd March which was the day we went into lockdown. If you compare them to Friday 24 July there were 123 deaths. So we're still operating at roughly double the level of deaths (allowing for fluctuations over the week).

It's harder to compare infection levels as there wasn't widespread testing in March.

But to do a comparison with Spain - on Friday 24 July UK had 747 new positive cases. Apparently Spain had 922 new positive cases on Friday 24 July. So we're not that far off Spain's levels just at the moment.

I think Spain did better at suppressing the first wave, and is now on it's second wave. We still seem to be in the first wave, which is very worrying.

I am extremely worried about the proposed model for schools starting back in September, and if they go back as proposed full time with little social distancing I don't think it will take long for cases to rocket again.

I think that as a very bare minimum schools need to do a temperature check at registration, that is not in the current guidance. I know some schools do it, but my son's school is not planning to.

I think that masks or visors should be compulsory for secondary age children (I can see the problems with this though given the amount of hassle that there is persuading people to wear them in shops!).

And my preference would be for secondary age children to have a part-time timetable with some remote learning which would allow for better social distancing.

It's not good for my son's mental health to not see his friends or to have time with his teachers. But neither would it be good for his mental health to worry that he's brought Covid home to his parents (I am clinically vulnerable, not shielding).

I think there needs to be far better arrangements in place for schools to be safe and sadly I don't have confidence in the government's plans. I know it's not straightforward, but I think we could do better than this.

Cats - our figs are a mess. At one point they were taken down due to everyone who had got covid at some point this year was marked as dying with covid. Even if they were elderly with underlying. Although I take the virus seriously I don’t think you can report the figs with any real understanding of the situation. It’s a mess.

Also at the moment the fatality fig for July is LOWER than last year.

With intelligent social distancing which schools have in place and flexibility to shut down bubbles and individual schools we should be able to return to more normal than last term. With so many schools reporting that many kids did not engage in online learning it is a plan B not a plan A.

Also amazed that people think there are no plans for sept. Have you kids in secondary? We got pages of plans to show how they plan to SD. Entrances for each year group. Zones in the schools for each year so less moving around. Changing for pe before school. etc etc. Stop scaremongering with the ‘no plan’ rubbish.

@catsarecute the death data isnt as clearcut as that - at the moment the 23rd March is reading as 159 deaths in hospitals in England alone.

As @Newgirls has said our death data is all over the place. I find comparing hospital data for admissions and deaths in England and they are both consistently falling

It's not that there's 'no plan.'
It's that the plan won't work.
Sorry guys, but wishing Covid gone does not mean it's going to happen anytime soon.

@Newgirls

Also amazed that people think there are no plans for sept. Have you kids in secondary? We got pages of plans to show how they plan to SD. Entrances for each year group. Zones in the schools for each year so less moving around. Changing for pe before school. etc etc. Stop scaremongering with the ‘no plan’ rubbish.

These are not plans for SD. There will be no SD in school.

These are plans for year group 'bubbles' which is a meaningless word designed to make parents feel ok.

How can you know plans won’t work 6 weeks before they happen? You don’t.

I hate this gov but I trust my local school and community to do their best for the sake of our kids mental and physical health. If you don’t then stay at home.

Bubbles are fine - we can’t isolate kids forever.

‘Bubbles are fine’

I’m teaching 5 bubbles of 300.

How is that fine? 1500 kids