Are we a couple of weeks behind Spain and France?

[BKCRMP]

If Spain is v.likely in a second wave and France not far behind them does that mean we are also heading straight in to one again?

Will schools open regardless this September?

www.haaretz.com/amp/israel-news/.premium-data-shows-where-israelis-contract-the-coronavirus-1.9005504?__twitter_impression=true

They can trace every case through phylogenetics. It was schools unfortunately.

Oaktree, you aren’t blunt, you’re rude.

I think @Oaktree55 makes a fair point, people who say the measures in our schools are adequate in light of what we know about the virus are either not understanding the science or are misleading us.

The lack of social distancing proposed in secondary schools is ridiculous. The article about Spain: max 20 in a class, 1.5m SD. Germany: similar numbers/SD/masks. England: wash your hands .

If people are willing to take that risk, as teachers or parents, they can say that, but scientifically they can not claim there is low risk.

They asked people where they thought they caught it from - that doesn’t sound like definitive scientific evidence to me. In addition if I’m reading it right they say in that article that nearly 8000 people tested positive over the week in question. Only 727 were able to say where they thought they had caught it and 210 (out of 8000 then, not 727) of those said in an educational setting. And people are using this to say they shouldn’t shutting bars etc as not so many people caught it there. How about the other 7300 where they don’t know where they caught it? Surely that’s more of a concern. Plenty of scope for other places to come out as far higher risk.

By the way I’m not saying that schools aren’t or won’t be a problem, but as far as I’m aware Israel are currently the only country saying they were a major factor?

English schools will have the largest classes in Europe with no distancing.we can not compare to the rest of Europe, who have small classes, plus masks, plus distancing.

More on Israel & schools:
twitter.com/drzoehyde/status/1286332165559484416?s=21
Obviously most schools in other countries have been closed or have only opened in smaller class sizes, SD, masks & lower community transmission. Even so, there have been sporadic school closures in response to localised outbreaks eg France. In the US, the opening of summer holiday camps has led to outbreaks.
In England, the PHE Surveillance weekly reports show that even with v limited school opening & bubbles, there has been growing number of outbreaks in schools (still small, I think up to 127 in total, but it was rising every week prior to end of term.)
Nobody can say for sure what will happen in September but on balance of research it looks like full reopening without any measures for airborne transmission will lead to clusters of cases centred around schools.

Here's the outbreak data for UK schools against outbreaks in all settings (total). The most recent week is at the top.

That data is not that relevant for secondary who were in small groups and distancing, when in September there'll be full classes and no distancing.

Even so more in schools than care homes.

Sorry, mac12 I think you had looked at a more recent surveillance report than me, I hadn't realised the next one had come out.

I think it's very relevant that we had that kind of increase even with the low numbers of students in and more stringent distancing measures in place.

@nellodee maybe we are making the same point but the other way around

I don't think 49 is great, I think with no SD it'll get worse.

Wish that chart had dates but week 28 is that 28th week of year? So week 21 was pre June 1 school opening?

Yes agree @nellodee

What is it with the word terrified? I keep seeing it pop up whenever someone wants to dismiss concerns about the virus.

It's used in exactly the same way men used to dismiss women as being hysterical in the 1900s.

I really can't be doing with this populous propaganda.

Why can't we just do what other sensible countries are doing? A reasonable balance of as much normality as possible but with simple measures to mitigate the risks.
So schools reopen but with smaller classes, masks, etc. Lots of places have made masks into fashion items. Children (and adults) buy customised masks with various designs and images. It makes them 'fun' to wear, something to selfie, rather than an unpleasant burden.

@Newjez yes and apparently we are all “cowering inside forever” because not immediately rushing back to normal during a pandemic.

Yes, I was definitely cowering inside my home today whilst at the lovely museum we went to.

If you think there's the slightest risk that cases could rise, then you're 'desperate for a second wave' too.

@SheepandCow 'why can't we just do what other sensible countries are doing' is the million dollar question. Drives me crackers looking at us always last, and half arsed hearted with every measure.

Weirdly those who throw 'terrified' and 'dementor' around, (showing utter contempt for the vulnerable and their loved ones) whilst insisting we all go back to normal straight away are often the same people moaning the most about simple mitigation measures that would allow a reasonable amount of normality (masks, etc).

Yes it's hard to understand. This would all matter less if we had some national leadership of course, because there'd be some sensible middle way between denial and anxiety that people could follow.

Labyrinth I agree re our leadership - The vague information right from the beginning has not helped and continues so we are always one step behind. As for the name calling here, I am reminded of the stick given out back in February when posters were expressing concern about the virus and were dismissed as being ridiculous and scaremongering. It would be absolutely fantastic if every child goes back to school and we have no outbreaks, but without the masks and SD I can't see it in our large high schools. There is no excuse as the evidence is there and the government can't be surprised when it happens.

It's a matter of balancing risks vs rewards. The "reward" of fewer corona deaths among the elderly does not outweigh the educational and mental health damage to children and the dire financial affects on families. For me, the second order effects of this virus are becoming worse than the pandemic itself.

Bear in mind that the oft-quoted (potential) mental health damage to children is quite hard to quantify, whereas the death toll to (all) age-groups is much more clear.

Sorry about the week thing on that chart. I think the weeks are kind of the weeks of the year, but there wasn't a clear way to link the week with the date (which is why I didn't). To make it more awkward, Surveillance report 2 dealt with the numbers from week 1. Sorry, I know it's confusing.