Feeling a bit duped about the seriousness of Covid....

[mostwonderfultime]

Found out my district of 55,000 people there have been 156 confirmed covid cases since March. Now I hear there is an enquiry into the over reporting of Covid deaths in England. Average death rate has now lower than average indicating many people who died from Covid would probably died in the next month or so. No surge in Covid cases or deaths since relaxing lockdown measures (I know about Leicester, but we all know reasons why they have more cases and again they haven't had a spike in deaths).
In the meantime, the economy is screwed, Kids have been off school for months, best friends business has gone bust.

However, like the OP, I have been surprised by how low the numbers of figures have been in many areas. Currently there are just 3 newly diagnosed cases in the last week in our area.

The problem with this statement is that you have no idea out of how many tests were these 3 cases. Out of 3 tests then be worried. Out of 3000... maybe not so much.
As long as we don't get geo data as an individual the risk assessment will be flawed.
If local services (council/GP) got geo data and aggregated them on a road basis (so not identifiable per person) then I would be much happier.

@LaurieMarlow

This is exactly how conmen take people in.

Quite.

We’d do well to remember any poster on here could be a teenage troll having a laugh.

As could you then to be fair

I don't take anything I quickly hear on R4 or glance at in the headlines as gospel. I read a few different papers, listen to the news, and I'm probably as good a picture of 'averagely informed' as anyone. Unfortunately that's the best I'm going to do right now. I suspect most people are the same.

However I am worried that people want the virus to be over, it feels like an ever receding threat, and soon we will all be engaging with one another indoors more and more. I'm worried it will get worse because we all want so badly to believe that it's all over.

As could you then to be fair

Well of course. However I have never claimed any credentials here, to be fair.

@SengaStrawberry

There was a lady on radio 4 yesterday who said much the same as that poster: the virus is not going away anytime soon and will change the way we live for years to come.

But who was she?

Why are people so willing to accept all negative proclamations as fact but any more positive spin is dismissed?

Except that I haven't read or heard any experts being wholeheartedly optimistic about any particular development. They've all been either neutral or cautious in their optimism and usually it's been multifaceted - so I've heard it said that a vaccine might still be some way out yet (I have heard a few say it will be many years away) but that certainly much better drug treatments will definitely be developed. So, I am suspicious of people being blindly optimistic to be honest because that isn't replicated in the many people I've heard talk about this (where I know who they are and what their qualifications are, so not random people on the internet)

Unfortunately that's the best I'm going to do right now. I suspect most people are the same.

Then you need to be aware of your own biases and watch out for confirmation bias. It’s a widespread human behaviour. There are lots of positive developments in the pipeline. Acknowledging that doesn’t mean people aren’t following the guidelines or letting their guard down.

But I also urge you to read more widely on the topic. There are reputable, accessible sources out there.

I'm actually a really positive person! Possibly annoyingly so. But I'm worried that head in the sand optimism can be used to absolve people of personal responsibilities towards preventing the spread of transmission. I worry that blithe optimism will be used by the government to absolve themselves of responsibility towards keeping us safe. I think that we need to be careful not to rewrite history as in "it wasn't that bad, Corona" just because at this moment it appears to be not all that bad.

I’m not talking about blind optimism. But there are experts who have said they don’t think there will be a second wave because that is based on how Spanish flu spread which is not a CV and people have pooh poohed them. Eg Hugh Pennington has said this and on STV news pages he was slagged off, his politics brought into it, people saying “he didn’t know what he was talking about” despite the fact he studied viruses for several years before moving into bacteriology.

@GalesThisMorning

I'm actually a really positive person! Possibly annoyingly so. But I'm worried that head in the sand optimism can be used to absolve people of personal responsibilities towards preventing the spread of transmission. I worry that blithe optimism will be used by the government to absolve themselves of responsibility towards keeping us safe. I think that we need to be careful not to rewrite history as in "it wasn't that bad, Corona" just because at this moment it appears to be not all that bad.

I am trying to be positive and optimistic, but I am still following all of the guidelines and have no problem doing so. You can respect the situation and be responsible, whilst also looking for the positives.

I agree with @LaurieMarlow, the T cell developments are so interesting and no longer "just a theory".

There’s a halfway house between blind optimism and just accepting that this socially distanced half life of masked misery is it. There are very many on mumsnet who I swear are actually gleefully revelling in the latter and will be disappointed if we ever get back to normal.

Yep agree @Jrobhatch29.

@GalesThisMorning

I don't take anything I quickly hear on R4 or glance at in the headlines as gospel. I read a few different papers, listen to the news, and I'm probably as good a picture of 'averagely informed' as anyone. Unfortunately that's the best I'm going to do right now. I suspect most people are the same.

However I am worried that people want the virus to be over, it feels like an ever receding threat, and soon we will all be engaging with one another indoors more and more. I'm worried it will get worse because we all want so badly to believe that it's all over.

I don’t really worry about any of this. What’s the point? You can’t control what other people do. Also if people aren’t going to stick to the rules the government have to accept that to an extent in formulating any future response. People are only going to accept an unnatural way of living for so long, virus or no virus.

Yes that's true. And it doesn't worry me to the extent that I can't sleep at night! I can't control what others do, nor would I want to. I do think that people will accept an unnatural way of living for longer, if they have to. Climate change for example will make us do this. War has made people do this.

Senga,

Although medically, Covid-Sars2 and H1N1 influenza are completely different, epidemiologically they are not so different.

Whether we get a second wave is an open question as is what the first wave would have looked like with no lockdown.

Globally, we have lowered r(t) but it is still above one with new cases doubling roughly monthly. Deaths have also started to move up again although, with a younger average infected age, they have been stable for a while.

To me, if we get a vaccine soonish, and I am an optimist in this, lockdown will have been worth it.

Scientists still do not know how deadly Covid 19 is and it clearly depends on demographics and age. However, a recent Nature article still says the IFR is between 0.5 and 1% at population level.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2

So, I don’t think anyone has been duped.

Whether we get a second wave is an open question as is what the first wave would have looked like with no lockdown.

Agreed. But it’s not stopped the “lockdown forever” mob -

VE Day, Bournemouth beach, pubs opening , BLM protests “oh here comes the second wave”. Except it wasn’t. I know we can’t go back to pre lockdown ways just now or it will spring back, but surely a “second wave” won’t just come from nowhere? It will only happen if we take our eye off the ball and stop all the measures put in place.

@larrygrylls

Senga,

Although medically, Covid-Sars2 and H1N1 influenza are completely different, epidemiologically they are not so different.

Whether we get a second wave is an open question as is what the first wave would have looked like with no lockdown.

Globally, we have lowered r(t) but it is still above one with new cases doubling roughly monthly. Deaths have also started to move up again although, with a younger average infected age, they have been stable for a while.

To me, if we get a vaccine soonish, and I am an optimist in this, lockdown will have been worth it.

Scientists still do not know how deadly Covid 19 is and it clearly depends on demographics and age. However, a recent Nature article still says the IFR is between 0.5 and 1% at population level.

www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2

So, I don’t think anyone has been duped.

Yeah ive read that article before. It links a really good study in switzerland looking at the ifr across different ages. You are right, It demonstrates how hard it is to put a blanket ifr on a population as it varies massively across ages

senga

If we had an efficient t&t system we might get a handle on it soon enough not to feel like a second wave had come from nowhere. But how well did that work the first time? We watched the numbers climb and there was nothing to do but lock down if we wanted to bring them down again. Squashing local outbreaks before they merge is hard and our track record is not good or on target. We might be managing now but it's summer and many people are not living normally. If they're to go to work and school (all indoors in a developing densely populated country), we'd need a 'world beating' t&t system. It simply isn't there and the exponential growth of the virus is hard to get your head around. It could very much feel like it had come from nowhere, we don't know. We don't know if it will have to jostle for a place alongside other bugs or effortlessly coexist through the winter season. We really don't know. How do you see this working? Rather than debating the appropriate emotional response, how do you actually see it playing out? And not working isn't an answer any more than worrying. There has to be a rational process of thought.

Don't know whether developing came from.

@853690525d

senga

If we had an efficient t&t system we might get a handle on it soon enough not to feel like a second wave had come from nowhere. But how well did that work the first time? We watched the numbers climb and there was nothing to do but lock down if we wanted to bring them down again. Squashing local outbreaks before they merge is hard and our track record is not good or on target. We might be managing now but it's summer and many people are not living normally. If they're to go to work and school (all indoors in a developing densely populated country), we'd need a 'world beating' t&t system. It simply isn't there and the exponential growth of the virus is hard to get your head around. It could very much feel like it had come from nowhere, we don't know. We don't know if it will have to jostle for a place alongside other bugs or effortlessly coexist through the winter season. We really don't know. How do you see this working? Rather than debating the appropriate emotional response, how do you actually see it playing out? And not working isn't an answer any more than worrying. There has to be a rational process of thought.

This is why the Scottish aim of elimination seems to be more sensible. We will have to accept some disruption of course but equally a half functioning economy, millions unemployed (with attendant poverty and deaths/health issues) children getting half an education, isn’t any more palatable than illness or death from the virus.

When you referred to the lockdown forever mob, I thought you were against a sustained lockdown (required for elimination). Confusing.

No I mean the people who just bleat about everything opening being “too soon” all the time and seem disappointed when no second wave occurs. Scotland is opening up cautiously and aiming for elimination. Not staying closed forever.

I really think it's paranoia to suggest anyone is disappointed when a second wave doesn't come. Comments like that highlight how partisan it's all become and referring to people as mobs doesn't help either. You may like Scotland but I wonder if you'll like them when they lock down again. There isn't really a third way with the technology we have.

What do you bleat about, by the way? If everyone does it and from your posts you're either part of a mob or you're bleating, what do you bleat about? Or are you special.

I have no idea what you’re on about. Are you quite well?

Of course I like Scotland, I doubt I’d have spent my life living here if I didn’t?!

I really think it's paranoia to suggest anyone is disappointed when a second wave doesn't come

Oh I don’t think it’s paranoia. There have been posts over the weeks and months salivating at the prospect and it seems to me they think the more deaths the better. I don’t get it myself but there you go.